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* We have two Darren Bailey TV ads to rate today. The first one is a hit on Richard Irvin…
* Script…
The real Richard Irvin is a lifelong liberal Democrat. Need more proof? In text messages, Richard Irvin called President Trump an idiot and a bigoted racist. ‘I hate Trump,’ wrote Irvin. These are Richard Irvin’s actual text messages. So see for yourself. Richard Irvin thinks JB Pritzker is a great leader. But Irvin hates President Trump and thinks he’s an idiot. Richard Irvin, a lifelong liberal Democrat you just can’t trust.
* The second is a positive Bailey spot. He actually speaks to the camera in this one…
* Script…
I’m Darren Bailey and it’s time for some straight talk. I’m a lifelong Republican and I voted for President Trump every time. In Springfield, I’ve never voted for a tax increase. And I’m the only candidate who’s taken on JB Pritzker and won. As governor, I’ll fight the liberals at every turn. We’ll ban Critical Race Theory from our schools. We won’t let boys compete in girls’ sports. And our police will always be funded. If you’re ready to take back Illinois, I’d appreciate your support.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 10:51 am
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Did he buy any cable time on Fox in South Florida?
Because if Bailey can’t get Trump’s endorsement, he isn’t going to win.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 10:56 am
A on the first ad….love the use of visual and audio. it’s powerful. B+ on the second. he’s good in the commercial and the hot button issue of girls and sports is popular right now, but I know from watching the debate that he’s scripted well here and live and in person he’s not that sharp.
Comment by Amalia Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 10:57 am
“take back illionois” plugging in to what’s already there,clever
Comment by Rabid Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:00 am
Both ads are powerful. Rated A for both. The first one is like, boom [exclamation point]. There’s nothing like someone’s own words to use. Bailey’s spots are the most positive, so to speak, like the one with his running mate describing him. Irvin is playing defense in ads, answering to how phony he is by having someone say he’s not phony.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:01 am
To the first ad, keep it up and he might make me start liking Irvin. /s
To the second, planning on running that up north? As someone who has lived in all parts of the state, I question those choices for areas of focus in an ad for metro Chicago. Yes it’s the GOP Primary, but it may be irrevocably narrowing the “tent” for the general if he gets there. Personally I find the hatred directed at trans kids abhorrent. And then there’s how his accent will play up north.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:01 am
The first one is decent. Factual evidence of Irvin’s real feelings. The second ad is ok for people already voting for Darren Bailey, but I don’t see how it attracts anyone new. Critical Race Theory and transgender people in sports are just usual nationwide conservative talking points, I don’t think it sells as well in Illinois as it does the south, but you never know I guess.
Comment by TheUpperRoom Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:03 am
“As governor, I’ll fight the liberals at every turn.”
“And I will become a member of the blago century club and all of my vetos will be overridden.”
Comment by Huh? Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:03 am
Depends on what market he’s playing these ads in.
Comment by NotRich Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:04 am
Both ad’s are an A. I’m not a republican but Bailey is a breath of fresh air from the tired establishment type republicans pushed to the forefront i.e. Rauner/Irvin/Griffin.
Comment by Real Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:05 am
C at best. Neither of these ads push back against what is probably Irvin’s biggest selling point that could get him over 30% and a win: electability in November.
Comment by fs Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:07 am
Bailey is the down to earth type of republican who is approachable and relatable. In stark contrast to the distant, egomaniac, and combative Rauner and Irvin.
Comment by Real Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:08 am
“In Springfield” is doing some heavy lifting there.
Comment by /s Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:10 am
Bailey hit every rightwing g-spot in that second ad, but I really can’t imagine that message will be a winner in the general election.
Comment by Curious citizen Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:18 am
I think the ad with Irvin for mayor with donkeys will be even better in showing New Cokes stripes.
Comment by Lurker Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:19 am
Bailey and Trussell are a good team to communicate effectively to the entire State. High quality production in these two spots. Could add to their favorable momentum.
Comment by Unstable Genius Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:19 am
“Bailey is the down to earth type of republican who is approachable and relatable.”
To who? Other people who have gotten millions in farm subsidies?
Comment by Morty Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:20 am
The first ad is silly. I feel like he said “Irvin hates Trump” four or five times? I know Trump polls well among Republican primary voters, but I just don’t know.
The second is the kind of “Vote *for* Bailey” spot I’ve been saying he needs, so I guess it’s pretty OK. The question is if he can keep it on the air.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:24 am
“Bailey hit every rightwing g-spot….”
Literally spit out my coffee laughing at that line. Well done.
Comment by Try-4-Truth Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:24 am
==Neither of these ads push back against what is probably Irvin’s biggest selling point that could get him over 30% and a win: electability in November. ==
I wonder how much Republicans care about that, though.
I also wonder how much they buy it from Irvin, anyway.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:26 am
Dang. Where has this been for the last six months? Those ads are winners in the GOP primary. But I doubt he has the money to broadcast them appropriately.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:27 am
== I wonder how much Republicans care about that, though.==
A lot of them probably won’t. But, some probably will. And in a 6-candidate primary, a little can be a lot.
== I also wonder how much they buy it from Irvin, anyway.==
Remains to be seen. But it’s a lot easier to make that argument when the other party is already running ads against you and only you.
Comment by fs Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:30 am
Bailey’s curious affect always makes me think he’s about to introduce The Culhanes of Kornfield Kounty on Hee-Haw.
– MrJM
Comment by MisterJayEm Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:31 am
===But I doubt he has the money ===
He has it.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:34 am
“Bailey’s curious affect always makes me think he’s about to introduce The Culhanes of Kornfield Kounty on Hee-Haw.”
If he could only spin a yarn like Jerry Clower, he would be a shoe-in for governor… of Mississippi.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:36 am
Regarding the 2nd ad, I guess compromise is out of favor. Scorched earth is in.
Comment by Sir Reel Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:38 am
==But it’s a lot easier to make that argument when the other party is already running ads against you and only you. ==
I don’t think voters really pick up on much of that stuff. If they see the DGA anti-Irvin ads, their takaway is much more likely to be “Well that guy sounds bad” than “Democrats must be most scared of that guy.”
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:41 am
==Where has this been for the last six months? Those ads are winners in the GOP primary. But I doubt he has the money to broadcast them appropriately. ==
If he only has the money to stay on the air for a month, well, this is the right month to pick.
One could argue that Irvin being on the air for far longer has allowed him to build up a reservoir of goodwill among Republicans such that Bailey’s efforts are too little, too late, but I don’t find that very persuasive.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:42 am
I’d give the first ad an A. It’s right on target with the base voters who see this as a litmus test.
I’d give the second ad a B. It only speaks to the base. If Bailey is going to turn out the moderate suburban Republican voters I’m not sure this ad offers much.
Comment by Pundent Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:44 am
Both ads get an A grade. Very well done and on target.
Comment by Blues Fan Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:44 am
Both are good ads. I like the first more than the second - mainly because I wonder about harping on CRT and Trans kids. But I’m not in the target audience.
This year I did see for the first time a “boy” running against “girls” at track meet. The young person was from a small rural school and there was no outrage directed at them (thank god) or even any rumbling in the stands where I was. So I just wonder how worked up people really are about those things.
These ads continue to damage Irvin more than anything. I know expect this race to be as close as Rauner/Ives.
Comment by Cool Papa Bell Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:47 am
BTW, both ads have low production values, but I don’t know that that will matter if enough people see them.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 11:55 am
The first ad is effective for a Trump-centric republican party.
The second ad, ehhh. I’m nitpicking of course, but CRT isn’t being taught in schools, so let’s pass a law? Plus, and this is really nitpicky, but I’ve heard it several times on other ads: Darren, it’s not Allinois, it’s Illinois.
Comment by Steve Rogers Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 12:01 pm
===Literally spit out my coffee laughing ===
As did I, which is why I didn’t delete it. Classic. But, still, let’s not try to emulate such talk here.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 12:14 pm
What do Trump-loving voters think and will they turn out enough in the General to help Irvin win, should he be the nominee? These anti-Trump ads seem like they can do damage past the Primary.
Irvin is the best example why many love and support Trump. They can’t stand phony politicians, and love someone who finally “tells it like it is.” This is from their own words. Trump lays it out there, darn the consequences. Bailey is no Trump. Trump would have invented a childish nickname for Irvin that really sticks. Irvin is no Trump, who immersed himself in the GOP base. Irvin runs from it.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 12:29 pm
=Bailey and Trussell are a good team to communicate effectively to the entire State.=
If only Bailey spoke english. I had to have someone translate during the debate.
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 12:36 pm
I understood Bailey very clearly in the debate and in his ad’s. His accent and English only reflects how diverse Illinois is. If we only can recognize people who look like or sound like us then we would be a very closed minded people.
Comment by Real Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 12:41 pm
The first ad is just plain weird. But taken in tandem with the strange Pritzker anti- Irvin ad also being rated on this blog today it would make some people who are not JB fans go “hmmm, why is the governor fighting this specific Irvin guy so hard and sounds so scared of him”? So I rate it a B.
The second ad is just a solid political ad that seems to honestly outline what Bailey considers important to his potential voters. Time will tell. Rating A
Comment by Responsa Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 12:44 pm
==would make some people who are not JB fans go “hmmm, why is the governor fighting this specific Irvin guy so hard and sounds so scared of him”?==
The only people who think that are CapFax commenters. Most voters are just not paying anywhere near enough attention to get to that conclusion.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 12:54 pm
“The candidate is running ads against his opponent, he must be scared” is smooth-brained enough, but now we’re adding on “and voters will make that leap, too, and punish the candidate for it”.
Watching sports must be tough. “The Blues are trying to score goals, they must be scared of the Avalanche. I bet the puck knows it, too.”
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 12:59 pm
Having not seen the Bailey TV ads because I don’t watch TV at home, I can’t say much about them. But judging from the second screenshot I will say that Candidate Bailey looks a bit more trim these days. Maybe it’s healthy eating and lots of physical activity on the campaign trail, but probably it’s all the religious fasting he does. Don’t overdo it, Darren, or you will start to look haggard. Voters don’t like haggard candidates. As to his voice, yes, it is an annoying Clay County twang that so many of us in these parts have. It would be interesting to see what a linguistics expert would say about this south central Illinois accent. We are probably in a location where two or more regional dialects meet. Seems like I once saw a map that showed dialect patterns in the US. I personally have it myself, unfortunately. Even though I perceive my voice to be much different, I always cringe when I hear a recording of myself.
Comment by MoralMinority Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:03 pm
THe thing is in an internet age, there is no way to pivot after the primary. Every thing the eventual candidate says will be filtered through the matter of what they said during the primary. The press cannot do their usual job of pretend like everything has been reset because everyone can look it up on youtube.
Comment by cermak_rd Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:10 pm
If a high school student posted a Tik Tok video showing him shooting a stack of paper with an assault rifle while grinning, he’d likely be pulled from his school and hopefully evaluated for mental illness. Bailey makes it his campaign commercials.
Comment by Terry Salad Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 1:57 pm
Even though Bailey makes Slim Pickens seem like Sir Laurence Olivier, I suspect he’s saying what the Trumpanistas love to hear.
Irvin, on the other hand, seems less authentic by the day.
Bailey’s accent aside, what you see is what you get. Sometimes voters like that.
Comment by Streator Curmudgeon Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 2:11 pm
With how much Bailey had to pay for that photo with Trump, he needs to milk it as much as possible.
Comment by ste_with a v_en Thursday, May 26, 22 @ 3:11 pm
==Bailey makes Slim Pickens seem like Sir Laurence Olivier==Sorry, didn’t see this until next day. Streator, your comment comparing Bailey and Slim Pickens gave me a vision of Bailey, at the behest of Trump, riding a cruise missile on its way to destroy a drug cartel hideout in Mexico.
Comment by MoralMinority Friday, May 27, 22 @ 9:07 am