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* Dillard lost the 2014 GOP primary to Rauner…
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 9:41 am
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Who? and Who?
Dillard, in or out, enough yak.
Rauner, how bad did Pritzker paddle you?
Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 9:44 am
Dillard would be a respectable candidate. Wouldn’t humiliate the Republicans, and I can see his path to victory if I squint a little.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 9:48 am
OTOH, Rauner’s political instincts should…not be taken for very much right now, to say the least.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 9:48 am
Let me remind you Kirk. You only got to points of beating Rauner because of a huge push by labor to beat Rauner in a primary. We worked our tookuses off to drag your carcass that far.
You won’t get that this time.
Illinois is not Virginia and you will not have labor support.
Comment by Honeybear Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 9:53 am
“Wouldn’t humiliate the Republicans”
Which Republicans are you referring?
If you’re referring to voters, the ones in my neck of the woods are immune to humiliation.
Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 9:53 am
By nearly every measure, Illinois was worse off with Rauner as governor. That should be a footnote every time the Floridian talks about anything in politics or Illinois.
Dillard is seemingly pushing himself with “many people are saying”… if you need to tell me about many people saying, that’s telling me a different message.
To these takes?
Suburbs *will* decide Illinois statewide races, downstate Red areas will uber-intensify and pluralities will grow in the 90+ “Red counties”
Dems need to show Illinois that they’ve accomplished all they did, and if it’s a referendum on accomplishing things, or bungling things, or any “things”, if they lose the message or let messages go unanswered, then that’s a real problem.
Example?
Mike Frerichs stands tall to a discussion to tax your retirement income.
In a climate like this, boy, someone can pummel Frerichs solely with that truth…
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 9:54 am
New Jersey ran a fairly establishment Republican who would now be considered a moderate in the party. He still lost by a few points. Pritzker is definitely still the favorite, but Republicans would have to nominate a fairly moderate candidate to have any chance and even then given the nationalization and polarization in politics, Pritzker would still be the favorite if the election were today.
Comment by Chicagonk Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 9:54 am
I’m sure there are many fine people who listen to rauner
Comment by bkhartbnjo Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 9:55 am
Love or hate Rauner—he’s right. Parental notification/defund police/taxes and corruption all bad issues for Dems in suburbs. And Trump not on ticket and Madigan not around to save the day.
Comment by Watchful eye. Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 9:56 am
=== Parental notification===
“Republicans are dangerous to women’s health”
There’s a real reason abortion is not being discussed by Republicans, even after PNA was repealed
“Like Texas, Republican X wants to force a 12 year old to carry a pregnancy to full term…”
2022 will be a big year on abortion issues. Forcing them by Republicans might be a drag not a lift.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:00 am
In Rauner’s defense, overreaching and mismanagement are the two things he’s best at so he would know.
Comment by ItsMillerTime Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:01 am
I think there would be a path for Dillard, not an easy one, but a path. I think that guy who came from nowhere (the sort of hedge fund guy) has a bit of a path as well (not as wide) and that is it. I think the rest will be too easy to paint with a brush that kills them in the suburbs.
That being said, if Illinois is more COVID restrictive than neighboring states when it comes to various restrictions, especially schools then all bets are off.
Bruce, I had such hopes for you and that was a lesson learned.
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:01 am
Dillard’s comment makes me wonder: Is the GOP courting him because they sense an opportunity or because they’re freaking out over the current slate of challengers?
Comment by Ink-Stained Wretch Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:04 am
Well when it comes to mismanaging Rauner knows what he’s talking about.
Comment by The Dude Abides Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:04 am
The only person Dillard needs to hear from is Kenny G
Comment by Wow Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:05 am
“Madigan not around to save the day”
Hold on. I was told for years how Madigan was an anchor around Il Dems’necks.
Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:05 am
==Is the GOP courting him because they sense an opportunity or because they’re freaking out over the current slate of challengers? ==
Are they even courting him?
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:07 am
==The only person Dillard needs to hear from is Kenny G==
What about Jim Edgar?
Comment by NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:08 am
===Madigan not around to save the day===
lol
Two years ago, the GOP take was “Madigan’s gonna sink the Democrats.”
He was a super talented political leader. But he was/is treated way too much like a god.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:11 am
Illinois isn’t Virginia. Kirk Dillard and Bruce Rauner aren’t going to be the nominee of the GOP Governor race. The Democrats have an advantage because this isn’t a competitive state. A year from now the odds are 50/50 people will still have to wear masks . It’s Illinois…
Comment by 2nd Ward Sage Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:12 am
Again, for many, Madigan will be pulling strings from the grave.
Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:12 am
JB and Obama lost congressional primaries.
I don’t see the point here.
Comment by Phil S. Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:14 am
Illinois is not Virginia- agreed
It is much more like New Jersey where the State Senate President is getting beat by a truck driver who spent a total of $150 in campaign expenses on donuts and business cards
https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2021/11/03/meet-ed-durr-the-candidate-who-might-knock-steve-sweeney-out-of-the-senate-1392209
Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:15 am
===because this (Illinois) isn’t a competitive state.===
This is patently wrong.
The choices Illinois Republicans have put out make Illinois voters choose Democrats.
You can’t make that kind of statement without being able to name the entire 2018 Republican statewide ticket without looking.
Reset, Recruit, Regroup… haven’t seen it yet in a totality.
Bailey, if he leads the ticket, he likely will sink the whole thing.
The takes above can only have honesty to them by the two individuals if the candidates the Illinois Republicans have in November are palatable.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:16 am
Dillard is such a nice guy.
Comment by Amalia Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:17 am
Dillard would be a much better option for the GOP *if* he can get through a primary.
In this environment, the Downstate rurals will vote for anyone who is not JB and has a R by their name and he could get some DuPage ancestral GOP votes not available to the other candidates.
But the Virginia story is more complicated than just some white suburbanites abandoning Dems for the GOP. The other story was the GOP margins in rural counties just getting greater and greater and the big rural county/small city turnout. Dems haven’t found their floor yet for how disconnected they are from people who don’t live in big cities/suburbs/college towns.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:17 am
Bruce finally found 3G service to compete his sentences.
overreachin’
mismanagin’
shapin’
Comment by Michelle Flaherty Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:18 am
===JB and Obama lost congressional primaries.===
Dillard lost two gubernatorial primaries. Two.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:19 am
” it’s shaping up to be a terrific cycle for Republicans in 22″
And Rauner would still get beat. Why does anyone care what he says anymore?
I for one would welcome a Dillard run.
Comment by SOIL M Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:20 am
…Also, I saw Kirk the other day. He and I share something in common. I haven’t updated my Blue Book photo in decades.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:21 am
They’re both right in a way. Especially in Virginia, where there was record turnout. Schools were a big issue in Virginia, and McAullife telling parents, a week before Election Day, they shouldn’t be involved in their kids curriculum was one of the dumbest statements I’ve heard in a long time. Whether it was intended as it sounded or not. It played right into the hands of “government overreach” message.
In terms of Dillard, if he gets the appropriate backing what does he really have to lose by running? If he loses it’s expected. If the cards fall right and he wins, well then, he wins. But he needs the right people in his corner first.
Comment by fs Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:25 am
The guy who overreached and mismanaged so badly is criticizing others. That’s Rauner for you, a stunning lack of self-reflection. Dude should stick to what he does best, getting rich off of the people he despises.
Dillard and pro-union Republicans are really needed in that party. Good on them for even considering to run for office. People like Rauner cashed in, time to look out for the little gal/guy.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:26 am
==A year from now the odds are 50/50 people will still have to wear masks==
If we still have to wear masks next November, JB is gonna lose.
==It is much more like New Jersey where the State Senate President is getting beat by a truck driver who spent a total of $150 in campaign expenses on donuts and business cards ==
And once the truck driver is declared the winner, what’s the margin in the NJ State Senate going to be?
Granted, ILGOP would love to get within 10 seats in the State Senate, but it’s not exactly Braggin’ Rights.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:26 am
==the suburbs which I know well where the votes swing back to Republicans==
If you have a time machine set to 1980
Comment by Jocko Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:36 am
i’ve been a Republican since I was 18 years old. Yet I wouldn’t vote for the anti-science cretins disguised as the GOP if they were the last candidates on Earth.
Comment by DirtLawyer Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:38 am
=Love or hate Rauner—he’s right.=
Rauner wasn’t right about much at all. He lost reelection by the largest margin in Illinois history. Then tucked tail and ran away to Florida. Why is anyone asking him about Illinois politics. At least Dillard is still here.
Dillard is/was a republican I could vote for, not sure if he would still be that person ow but if he ran it would atleast get me seriously thinking about an ILGOP candidate.
That is pretty thin support, but at least he is not a laughing stock like every other ilgop candidate at this point.
=Illinois is not Virginia- agreed=
Finally, LP gets something right. And nothing else.
The gop has to use what is going on in Virginia and NJ to bolster its hopes. The reality is that each state has its own idiosyncratic issues and trends that do not carry over between states.
The next election is still to far off to accurately predict the issues that will determine the outcomes, especially when you consider the limited attention span of the populace and voters.
=But he was/is treated way too much like a god.=
More like a Darth Vader persona than a god in my opinion. Fallible in the end. More nuanced than most, skilled above all.
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:40 am
“Democrats overreachin’ and mismanagin’ so badly it’s shapin’ up to be a…”
There, fixed it.
Comment by Ryan Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:41 am
Nice talk, but talk is cheap. If so many people are backing you, get in the ring and say who they are.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:53 am
Dillard was the last Republican I voted for, but there will not be a repeat. I’m perfectly happy with JB. Wanna complain about masks or vaccines? Talk to the hand.
Comment by Jibba Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:54 am
“Downstate rurals will vote for anyone who is not JB and has a R by their name”
JB would be a fool to not campaign for the rural vote. That is owed to all the people a governor represents, just as a general principle. It’s also about the margins, not that rural folk will all love and support a Democrat (so many won’t). According to one analysis, the rural margin in Virginia for the Republican was as large/larger than Manhattan. That is unacceptable and Democrats need to adjust, to bring their margins up.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 10:57 am
==Is the GOP courting him because they sense an opportunity or because they’re freaking out over the current slate of challengers?==
I think Dillard is courting the GOP to court him.
Comment by SAP Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:01 am
Kirk still has a primary problem. He went too far right IMHO last time to try and get the nod. Today, he’d have to go full Q for today’s GOP. That would not benefit him in the general.
Comment by Norseman Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:05 am
“…if (Dillard) could get through a GOP primary.” The way I could see it happen is to have the rest of the pack trying to out-crazy each other while Dillard tries to thread a needle by sounding conservative without going full Trump-DeVore. In a four or five way race, he would only need about 25 percent of the vote. Brady won in 2010 with less than that.
Comment by The Ford Lawyer Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:05 am
=== he’s right. Parental notification/defund police/taxes and corruption all bad issues for Dems in suburbs.===
Parental notification, ok. Defund police, the Democrats aren’t for that, it’s not an issue. Taxes and corruption, both parties tax and spend, both parties have individuals who are corrupt.
Comment by Da big bad wolf Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:07 am
==Democrats aren’t for that, it’s not an issue==
Could be an issue. Perception is important. Biden showed a way to defang the issue, but we shouldn’t assume every other Dem will execute that plan.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:13 am
===He went too far right IMHO last time===
Yeah. After losing to Brady four years earlier, he was trying to outflank everyone else in the race.
You can’t keep running the last race.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:16 am
Dillard seems to be from the shrinking moderate division of the party. That’s where you’ll find folks like Adam Kinzinger these days. While I’m sure there are plenty of old-timers like Dillard that get together and reminisce about the good old days, the GOP seems to have moved on as have the suburbs.
Comment by Pundent Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:16 am
Democrats are so tone deaf they actually believe their criminal justice reforms are effective and enjoy broad public support
Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:20 am
===from the shrinking moderate division of the party===
He’s from the Edgar branch. He’s more of a technocrat, which is why he can so easily morph on actual issues.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:22 am
=== criminal justice reforms are effective and enjoy broad public support===
Last polling we saw here on a post Rich had up had “Crime” as an issue and it was 4th… 4th for GOP voters statewide.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:25 am
I was being generous in generalizing Dillard as a moderate. Being a technocrat is likely far worse given how the GOP feels about science and elites these days. Doesn’t exactly seem to be a policy crowd.
Comment by Pundent Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:27 am
==Democrats are so tone deaf==
They hold every statewide office and super majorities in both chambers.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:28 am
Capt Fax is one point as always KD does need to do a look photo update or a big time make over at the spa. There is also the small problems about how he was telling folks in SPI last week he had no plans to run.
Comment by Annonin' Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:32 am
Dillard is the only GOP candidate who I wouldn’t be all that fearful of if he won.
Between the anti-science anti-everything wing nuts and the Rauner wannabes, Dillard is the only one who wouldn’t try to burn government down and or try and turn the clock back to 1950.
Comment by Give Me A Break Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:36 am
=Democrats are so tone deaf=
Versus simply being deaf? JB just put $250 million toward the crime issue. Action vs words from the gop candidates who have done a total of zero. Bailey has no crime legislation passed since he entered the senate and none from his time in the house. His past legislative/voting record will haunt him in any election.
And, if crime is a big deal to the gop (see OW’s last post) do you think that JB will maybe run ads linking the gop candidates and Jan 6? That will not bode well for most of the gop candidates in the place where 85% of the states population resides.
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:37 am
===in generalizing Dillard as a moderate===
He’s from the old governing wing of the GOP. Same as Edgar.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:41 am
Love to see the data that proves Democrats wishful thinking and good intentions about spending $250 million on social services will somehow stop career, repeat violent offenders more than harsher penalties for violent crime.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:44 am
LP, what do Republican offer the voters? An upside-down bizarro world full of anti-democratic and anti-science nonsense. That scares the heck out of me, and probably a lot of that middle ground who might be swayable. They might get some with a drumbeat of nonsense wedge issues, but it will not change the race, even for Dillard.
Comment by Jibba Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:44 am
= KD does need to do a look photo update or a big time make over at the spa =
While I do my best not to judge candidates by their appearance, it does still play a role in some people’s thinking. It reminds me of a Cap Fax caption contest a few years ago, where both Gov. Quinn and Dillard were in the picture, and one of the commenters (unfortunately I can’t remember who, I would like to give due credit) said that the 2 of them were now working on “torte reform”.
Comment by cover Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:46 am
===proves===
Politics is also about what people believe.
Some believe elections are stolen, for example…
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:50 am
LP:
As someone else stated, Democrats hold every single elected office in the state plus have majorities in both the House and Senate in the General Assembly. You can bellyache and whine all you want but they continue winning.
Try not being a robot for once in your life. Your commentary has gotten (or more accurately, has been) old and stale for a long, long time now.
Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:52 am
It’s kind of funny hearing Bruce Rauner talk about mismanagement. Although I guess he’s pretty well suited to talk about it given his gross mismanagement of the state during his time in office.
Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:53 am
=Love to see the data that proves=
Use the Google, if you actually wanted to see the data. You don’t.
I’ll just note for the class that you didn’t dispute the lack of action from the gop candidates.
In the general, they won’t be able to get away with their lack of actual ideas and policies.
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:54 am
The quote listed from Rauner is really laughable since it applies to his overreaching and mismanagement. Well, at least he knows about overreaching and mismanagement- at least he knows how to do it.
Comment by Unconventional wisdom Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 11:59 am
South of I80 the margins for Dem losses gets bigger each election. The Dems have a real disconnect with rural voters. If any Republican wins though they’ve got to pull back some of the suburban folks who left the party during Trump times. And the ones who left because Rauner cut services to crucial social issues like the disabled, and heroin treatment options, special Ed programs, daycare, mammogram screenings- all things suburban moms understand and are willing to pay for in taxes.
Comment by Frank talks Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 12:21 pm
As former Chief of Staff to Governor Edgar, Dillard can now carry on his legacy of periodically raising Republicans hopes of running again and leading them to victory, only to remain on the sidelines.
Comment by Oldtimer Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 12:26 pm
While I support Pritzker’s violence prevention funding plan, I doubt it will have much of impact in 22. And if cities across the state continues at its current rate, I think it creates an opening for Dillard to move persuadable voters. I’ve only voted for a Republican once in my life–and that was for Kirk Dillard when he ran against Bruce Rauner. If he ran, I’d consider doing so again.
Comment by Interested observer Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 12:32 pm
As a Hard D I really believe that Dillard is the one and only Republican that can beat Pritzker as of today’s players.
Comment by Hard D Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 1:26 pm
All the “ tone deaf” issues as LP so eloquently put it are really non existent. The Black caucus pillars, social pro choice voting etc tend not to sway the electorate. Consistently it’s the economy. Are people making money, can they afford the things in their life they want (not need, want) do they see a retirement at any point in their future, what has their elected official done to make their fiscal lives better or at least keep it from getting worse?
I’ll always go back to “It’s the economy stupid”- James Carville
If the National Dems can’t pull together the votes for all these infrastructure jobs and fall into the trap by the GOP of your increasing the debt, then they will lose bigly.
Comment by Frank talks Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 1:47 pm
==Love to see the data that proves Democrats wishful thinking and good intentions about spending $250 million on social services will somehow stop career, repeat violent offenders more than harsher penalties for violent crime. ==
How about we just use some common sense, yeah? We already have pretty harsh penalties for violent crime. Three strikes and you’re out, mandatory minimums, that’s all on the books. And yet, I assume you would agree that the problem isn’t solved. So, definition of insanity time: do we keep doing the same thing over and over, hoping for a better result?
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 2:11 pm
Hey Rauner. You’re in Florida. Go pound sand. Hold LP close.
Comment by Lt Guv Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 2:37 pm
If there was ever an expert on mismanagement, Bruce Rauner is it. Why would anyone with a lick of sense ask his analysis on election results?
Comment by Hopeless picker Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 2:43 pm
I’m wondering if Kirk Dillard was on that list of Republicans Rauner reached out to run in his stead? Not sure I’m much interested in his take on things these days.
Comment by Pundent Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 3:05 pm
The only person that might be more of a gift than Bailey to JBP in 2022, is Rauner.
Comment by BRDB Trouble Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 7:24 am
AMEN. AMEN. AMEN.
Comment by AMEN Friday, Nov 5, 21 @ 8:29 am