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The decline may not be as fast as the rise

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Illinois

* This is just one reason why I’ve stopped posting this model…

Instead, we're seeing signs of asymmetry. In New York, things do look like they're getting noticeably better, but they're not getting better as quickly as they're got worse. Same in Italy; there's a decline in deaths, but it's not particularly symmetric. Spain is more ambiguous. pic.twitter.com/D6B0cGr8Pu

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 15, 2020

More here.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 9:14 am

Comments

Most of the projections I see I believe are wildly optimistic. Many use data from Wuhan or South Korea as leading indicators, which to me pose two obvious problems: 1. South Korea being the more accurate comparison, has a significant technological advantage with their contact tracing program. Tech companies claim to have something in development, but we’re way behind being able to trace who someone has come in contact with and find local “hot spots”. 2. Any model using any data from Wuhan should be considered highly questionable. Why anybody uses any data from Wuhan when it’s been proven that China has repeatedly lied and concealed COVID-19 numbers absolutely boggles my mind. Garbage in, garbage out.

Comment by Chambanalyst Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 9:27 am
Www.worldometers.info/cornavirus/country/italy
On March 22 Italy doubled down nationally on sheltering in Place by telling people to stop exercising outside and using vending machines. These charts and graphs can provide us a glimpse of what to expect.

Comment by Al Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 9:38 am
Love to see clearheaded analysis of models. Maybe they’ll do the Laffer curve next.

Comment by Jibba Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 9:45 am
When you factor in how dependable this model has been, from original estimates to current ones, it should always be taken with a few grains of salt.

Comment by SOIL M Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 9:51 am
Their model has been like a pinball. One day it said 2347 deaths. The next it said 3400. Then it dropped to 1700 and finally 777 which we’ve already passed. Everyone is looking for answers and a roadmap. You won’t find it here.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 10:30 am
I’ve been checking on Nate Silver’s graphs and analysis since we started shelter in place. He’s the best. Follow him on Twitter.

Comment by Wensicia Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 10:50 am
Projections and models are problematic as they are not based on actual data. Governor Pritzker made projections that indicated a need of between 4000-7000 ventilators just two weeks ago - that number thankfully is much lower now closer to 500.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/pritzker-illinois-needs-feds-to-send-1000s-more-ventilators/2250681/

Comment by Donnie Elgin Wednesday, Apr 15, 20 @ 10:57 am

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