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* Hmm…
When undecideds are pushed the lead swells to roughly 8%. But what if Nikki Haley drops out? Among Trump supporters only, the race is tied 43-43. Will Haley voters show up if she's no longer in the race?
— m3strategies (@m3strat) March 6, 2024
Haley is now out.
* M3 Strategies polling memo…
BACKGROUND
M3 Strategies surveyed 473 likely voters in Illinois’ 12th Congressional District from March 2nd to March 4th. It has a margin of error of 4.48% at 95% confidence. Respondents were randomly selected from a pool of individuals who are likely to vote. All responses were generated via SMS to web survey.
KEY FINDINGS
• Congressman Mike Bost leads Darren Bailey on the initial ballot by 6%. Bost leads 45% to 39%, with 16% of voters still undecided.
• Congressman Bost wins older voters, taking those over the age of 65 by over 30%, while Bailey wins among all younger age groups.
• Bost and Bailey split Trump voters, each taking 43%. Bost wins voters who say they are undecided or will vote for Nikki Haley.
• When undecided voters are forced to choose, Congressman Bost’s lead grows to 8%, winning 54% of the vote to Bailey’s 46%.
• Both candidates are well-known and well-liked, pointing to limited room for growth from positive messaging.o Nearly 77% of those over 65 view Congressman Bost Favorably, including 60% Very Favorably.
o Bailey’s highest favorable rating comes from those aged 31-45, with 71% viewing him Favorably.• President Trump’s endorsement does not appear to be decisive in this race, with 64% of voters saying that it had no impact or they were not aware of it. 20% of voters said Trump’s endorsement made them more likely to vote for Bost, and 17% said it was more likely to make them vote for Bailey.
o Still, 29% of undecided voters and 18% of Trump supporters said they were unaware Trump had endorsed in the race.
• Asked about the frozen embryos created through “in vitro fertilization” (IVF), only 40% of likely Republican Primary voters in IL-12 believe that “Frozen embryos outside the Mother’s womb should be considered a child,” pointing to broad, bipartisan support for IVF.
And now you see why neither Bost nor Bailey want to comment on IVF.
Read the toplines and some crosstabs by clicking here.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 10:19 am
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This poll shows the Bost base will hold. The other thing that isn’t being talked about much is that Bost is strong where the voters are. The Metro east is voter rich and Bost has represented that area for 8 years now. Bailey might perform well in his home area, but Clay County has a total of 13,000 people. St. Clair has 250,000 population. Also, this is essentially the same number spread that we saw last August from initial polling. Which means that all of Bailey’s new years eve puzzle putting together hasn’t resulted in any movement.
Comment by James Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 10:32 am
===The other thing that isn’t being talked about much is that Bost is strong where the voters are===
Maybe, but Bailey beat Pritzker in that district by about the same percentage that Bost won it.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 10:43 am
Seeing Bailey walk the halls and trying to out Trump others like Greene and Boebert will be a hoot. The entertainment value of that is almost worth the trouble.
Comment by Just Me 2 Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 10:46 am
“Maybe, but Bailey beat Pritzker in that district by about the same percentage that Bost won it.”
In other words, there might be more people, but not more republicans…
Comment by James Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 10:51 am
The problem here is that I want Bost and Bailey both in the caucus with video of the fights that would follow.
Comment by ArchPundit Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 11:00 am
Random thought…I think Bailey jumped the shark with his “soft hands” remark about Bost. Bost is a Marine and Fire Fighter. Bailey is a Millionaire farmer that doesn’t appear to miss too many meals.
Comment by James Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 11:02 am
Looks like BossToss better put the pedal to the medal down the stretch. Wonder if he is workin’
early votin’?
Comment by Annon'in Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 11:05 am
Here in the area it was pretty clear that Bailey was going to beat Reis when he ran. This time it doesn’t feel like that, feels close but not a blow out. That race was 9729 to 7411 56.76 to 43.24. This one feels close to 50/50 give our take 2 either side.
Comment by Route 50 Corridor Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 11:05 am
This contest is sort of like the Packers vs the Vikings. Can’t they both lose??
Comment by Friendly Bob Adams Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 11:57 am
=with video of the fights that would follow.=
LOL. What? Like tickle fights? I doubt bailey has ever been in a fight, he looks pretty soft and Bost is a Marine Corps vert so I am pretty sure he can handle business.
This race is truly a race to the bottom.
Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 11:59 am
=== Bost is a Marine and Fire Fighter===
No, well, maybe at one time.
He’s been a professional politician for 20 years.
Comment by Not really Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 12:13 pm
=Random thought…I think Bailey jumped the shark with his “soft hands” remark about Bost.=
Not with Trump voters, he insulted a POW and still is their hero.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 12:15 pm
===This race is truly a race to the bottom.
It’s really about the journey.
Comment by ArchPundit Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 12:29 pm
I like to think that Bost and Bailey both had to look up “caveats” after they read this headline.
And the “high favorability” makes me sad for our future.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 12:32 pm
==He’s been a professional politician for 20 years.==
Closer to 30 at this point
Comment by low level Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 12:34 pm
Not in this race / district, but in competitive D v. R contests, not saying something about IVF is going to be dangerous for Rs during this election cycle. Silence will be regarded as complicity at best, and that’ll be a big nail in a parlor full of coffins for R candidates.
Comment by Left Leaner Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 1:09 pm
At the end of the day, Bailey will be inducted into the list of people who ran against Mike Bost, and found themselves wanting…
Comment by James Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 1:47 pm
Darren Bailey…that voice..the Cheshire Cat toothy smile.
Darren Bailey is the bride at every wedding and the corpse at every funeral.
Comment by Rudy’s teeth Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 2:00 pm
Food must be better in Congress or else lobbyist spending accounts are bigger. Bost looks like he has put on thirty pounds since being in DC
Comment by exempt Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 2:03 pm
Matt Gaetz is for Bailey. That gives me reason to support Bost for the first time in my life. Literally.
Comment by low level Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 2:26 pm
Forced choice has Bost up 9 points. Looks like undecideds are leaning Bost. Bost has the money to get his message out over the course of the final 12 days, we’ll see what Darren’s working with when he files his next report. My guess is Bost wins by 6. Unfortunately, that probably won’t be a big enough margin for us to send Darren back to the farm for good. . .
Comment by YoungDonald Wednesday, Mar 6, 24 @ 5:22 pm