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* First, some historical background…
(B)ack in 2008, when Rod Blagojevich was nearing his fateful end, the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute found that 75% of Illinoisans believed Illinois was heading in the wrong direction, while 12.4% believed it was going in the right direction.
In 2010, the Simon Institute had the wrong/right track result at 81%-11%. In 2011, the Institute poll pegged the numbers at 75%-15% wrong/right, and it stayed there for a while. The Simon poll’s 2012 wrong/right results were 70%-20%. The 2013 Simon poll had it at 75%-16%.
In early 2015, shortly after Republican Bruce Rauner was sworn in as governor, Illinoisans’ mood improved a little. “Only” 63% said the state was headed in the wrong direction, while 22% said it was moving in the right direction.
By 2016, after all heck had broken loose in Springfield amid Rauner’s refusal to negotiate a budget until he won his war with organized labor, things got even worse. The Simon poll found a whopping 84% of the state’s voters believed Illinois was off on the wrong track, while only 10% thought it was following the right path. The Simon poll numbers were essentially unchanged two years later (84%-9%) as Rauner was finishing up his first and only term.
By October of 2022, an Emerson College poll found that 52 percent thought Illinois was on the wrong track, while 48 percent thought the state was heading in the right direction.
* Gov. Pritzker was asked today about national polling which shows that, despite lower inflation and a stronger economy, people are still pessimistic about economic conditions. His response…
Well, we’re actually solving problems and actually making things better. And in the end, it’s good policy that makes good politics.
And so whether there’s a lag between the time that people feel the benefit of an economy where earners are earning, outpacing inflation, and therefore their income levels are rising. They may not recognize it at the beginning. But I think they’re beginning to recognize it now.
I’d like to say I just read a Republican poll in Illinois that shows that, in Illinois anyway, that more than 50 percent of the people of Illinois are optimistic about the economy in Illinois and only 42 percent are not optimistic. That’s different than the polls that you’re citing, right? And that’s a recent poll by a Republican organization. And it shows that I think there’s progress and, certainly in Illinois, there is more optimism.
* I asked his spokesperson what poll he was talking about and was pointed to this result…
That’s actually a better result than Pritzker portrayed. Just 20 percent are pessimistic? And less than one percent are very pessimistic? In Illinois?
Empower to Win is a project of Cor Strategies, which is a Republican consulting group. The poll was featured in their latest video presentation.
…Adding… From the Empower to Win response to Pritzker’s comments…
This latest tracking poll shows a huge challenge for Illinois Republicans in 2024. How do you craft an economic message when a majority of voters are optimistic about the economy, yet still cite the economy as one of their top issues and want to leave the state?
More from the poll…
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 1:27 pm
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Can’t wait for the IPI stories and Trib editorials on this one.
Comment by Linus Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 1:29 pm
Center Square = ineffective at propaganda.
Comment by Big Dipper Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 1:31 pm
If it was supposedly a democrat pollster instead, and it was pessimistic or not, would I be reading about it on capfax?
Comment by Skippy Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 1:44 pm
The data all point to optimism around the economy. Sadly, there are professionals out there who keep trying to find the dark cloud in all of the silver lining in the economic news.
Unemployment at historic lows. Pay increasing. Inflation up but under control. Record stock market high.
The naysayers are now pivoting to record national debts to pour cold water on any attempts of John Q. Public feeling better about things.
It’s like the people who continue to badmouth Illinois, the everyone-is-leaving crowd, but on a national level and on steroids. This is arguably the best economy in my lifetime, but you wouldn’t know it by watching the news.
Glad to see this poll showing some people are beginning to wake up.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 1:45 pm
Sorry but none of that addresses,bloated property taxes. Its great if you have a job but not great when your property tax bill is 11, 12,14k….and going up 3, 5,6% a year after assessments
Comment by Red headed step child Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 1:45 pm
===Sorry but none of that addresses,bloated property taxes===
Who said it did?
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 1:49 pm
===If it was supposedly a democrat pollster instead===
lol
You may need a nap.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 1:50 pm
“ Sorry but none of that addresses,bloated property taxes. Its great if you have a job but not great when your property tax bill is 11, 12,14k….and going up 3, 5,6% a year after assessments”
Is that you, IPI? The reality that naysayers are loathe to accept is that Illinois has improved dramatically under JB. Our business climate is better, we’re attracting jobs, paying our bills and clearly on the best track in decades. I know that’s not consistent with the Illinois Exodus article of faith, but it just happens to be true as this GOP poll clearly shows.
Comment by New Day Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 1:51 pm
Wow, this will give the spelunkers of misery heartburn.
I do like that we have a governor who is selling the benefits of Illinois as opposed to trashing the state.
Comment by Norseman Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 2:00 pm
==Its great if you have a job==
We have record low unemployment so if you don’t have a job that’s probably your choice. If you are a retired senior there are additional property tax exemptions available that make it unlikely you are paying high amounts unless you live in a mansion.
Comment by Big Dipper Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 2:01 pm
Ironically, the poll made people in the GOP more pessimistic because Illinois residents are getting more optimistic. But I suppose that wouldn’t have changed their original answer…
Comment by Jibba Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 2:12 pm
Inflation is easing, wages are up and gas prices are down. This trend might more or less continue this year. Normality from before COVID is basically here, thankfully. The Dow Jones hit another record high today.
Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 2:29 pm
We have record low unemployment…yes but even with a job a good,% of those jobs dont pay enough to pay for them taxes. Sure the state might be doing well but it doesn’t transition to benefit the average
home owner/ taxpayer. People who elect to move,are not moving because,the,state may or may not have been in good financial condition.
Comment by Red headed step child Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 2:36 pm
“This state is in terrible economic shape.”
“Actually, it isn’t.”
“Well people by and large still think it is.”
“Actually, no they don’t.”
“Well I still think they think that way, and I want somebody in the governor’s office to finally do something about it.”
Comment by Roadrager Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 2:46 pm
==a good,% of those jobs dont pay enough to pay for them taxes==
If you can’t afford to own a home, you rent.
Comment by Big Dipper Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 3:18 pm
@Red headed step child:
We’ll count you in the “pessimistic” category for this survey. You can move on from your soap box now.
Comment by Demoralized Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 3:21 pm
=have a job but not great when your property tax bill is 11, 12,14k….and going up 3, 5,6% a year after assessments=
You have a pretty nice house and live in a nice area if that is your property tax.
Comment by JS Mill Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 4:06 pm
“Inflation is easing, wages are up and gas prices are down….The Dow Jones hit another record high today.”
All true but I can understand why people are pessimistic. It required $1.19 in December to buy what a $1 purchased in December 2019. Wages had to increase about 4.5% per year to stay even. They had to increase 6% per year to buy a median priced home in Illinois or to pay for a gallon of milk. They had to increase 9% per year to buy a 16 ounce bag of potato chips and 13% a year to pay for a dozen of eggs. (Data from St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank).
Comment by CapnCrunch Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 4:09 pm
===They had to increase 9% per year to buy a 16 ounce bag of potato chips===
Think about what you just wrote. A bag of potato chips?
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 4:10 pm
=have a job but not great when your property tax bill is 11, 12,14k….and going up 3, 5,6% a year after assessments=
You have a pretty nice house and live in a nice area if that is your property tax
Ummmm not really, you might to see,what average folk paying for average houses north of I80.
Comment by Red headed step child Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 4:24 pm
That question about moving out of state is just goofy. I plan on moving out of state at some point in the future but it has absolutely nothing to do with politics or the economy or taxes and everything to do with the weather and allowing my wife to return to her country of birth when we retire.
Comment by Demoralized Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 4:38 pm
“Think about what you just wrote.”
I was trying to say a bag of chips had increased 41% in the last 4 years.
That would be equivalent to compounding at a 9% annual rate. I was trying to show the rate of wage increases to match the inflation rate of things we buy. Poor choice of words on my part.
Comment by CapnCrunch Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 4:42 pm
==I do like that we have a governor==
Did you move from Missouri?
Comment by Just a Guy Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 4:49 pm
==,what average folk paying for average houses north of I80.==
You might want to narrow that down as I have a nice house north of I-80 and pay well under the numbers you are throwing around.
Comment by Big Dipper Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 5:29 pm
Just a Guy
I wish I could. I was born, raised, employed and will be buried in Illinois. I also have relatives in the state, so I continue to consider Illinois my home. Missouri is simply the place where i babysit my grandchildren. MO is filled with lunatic MAGA politicians who feel more at home carrying an assault rifle than a rational debate.
Comment by Norseman Monday, Jan 22, 24 @ 5:59 pm