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* It’s just a poll, and we’ll know the real numbers soon enough, but Victory Research has now done four head-to-heads on the Vallas vs. Johnson race…
2/12-15: Vallas 46, Johnson 33
3/6-9: Vallas 45, Johnson 39
3/20-23: Vallas 46, Johnson 44
3/29-31: Vallas 50, Johnson 45
If this poll is right, then the undecideds are breaking toward Vallas and he’s finally moved above that 45-46 level he’d been stuck at for weeks.
If you compare the last two polls and look at where the candidates have moved at or beyond the overall 3.2 percent margin of error in the final poll (even though the MoE for these subsets are larger), you’ll see Vallas has moved up a bit with both men and women. He’s now equal with Johnson among women and leading Johnson by 13 big points among men.
Vallas’ numbers also increased by 5 points in Lakefront wards, and the poll found him ahead there by 9 points. Vallas moved up 4 points among Latinos and led by 7 in the latest survey.
Johnson was leading among 18-30s by 20, but they don’t vote in large numbers. Vallas was ahead by 11 points among seniors, and they do vote in large numbers.
Of those who hadn’t yet voted, Vallas led by 7 points. The two were tied among those who’d voted already.
* Crain’s…
Meanwhile, though Johnson pulled in another $125,000 over the weekend from the American Federation of Teachers union, United Working Families and state Sen. Mattie Hunter, D-Chicago, Vallas, yet again, pulled in a lot more. Vallas’ weekend haul topped $410,000, including another $100,000 from Koch Foods CEO Joe Grendys (the chicken processing mogul already had donated $200,000), $50,000 from airplane maintenance exec Neil Book and $25,000 from Merchandise Mart Properties.
The ad disparity on Chicago TV is simply breathtaking.
* Instead of paying these bills long ago, or immediately correcting the problem, Johnson initially brushed it all off and then flip-flopped, thereby extending the story and bringing in other news media outlets which had ignored the original piece, like the Tribune…
Chicago mayoral candidate Brandon Johnson paid off more than $3,000 in water and sewer bills to the city after facing criticism over his handling of his personal finances.
The controversy erupted in recent days after it emerged that Johnson owed $3,357.04 in unpaid water and sewer bills and more than $400 for unpaid parking tickets to the city.
* I have no idea why the Johnson campaign thinks that a two-minute ad featuring out-of-state talking heads is gonna move any kind of needle…
The Brandon Johnson campaign has taken the extraordinary step of airing a two-minute television ad on broadcast and cable across Chicago on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. The documentary-style ad––titled “Trail of Destruction”––features parents, policy experts, and community leaders from Philadelphia and New Orleans warning Chicagoans of Paul Vallas’ disastrous record.
* Not good…
Brandon Johnson disputed a question asking him to expand on this quote that’s in a Guardian headline: “That’s not a quote from me … You know, look, I know there are individuals that want to divide the city of Chicago. We're running to unite the city of Chicago.” https://t.co/NQT42qDN41
— Alice Yin (@byaliceyin) April 2, 2023
* Pat Quinn isn’t really a “centrist,” but claiming that Tabares and Martinez are progressives is truly a laugh riot…
Today on the campaign trail: Paul Vallas is hosting a rally with “progressive” leaders that’s actually a bunch of centrists and moderates pic.twitter.com/6XUVF1WNzC
— Gregory Pratt (@royalpratt) April 2, 2023
…Adding… Like I said…
They also discussed how Madigan intended to have Silvana Tabares appointed as the 23rd Ward's new City Council member. The call was in April 2018.
— Jon Seidel (@SeidelContent) April 3, 2023
* Former CTU leaders for Vallas…
We didn’t have a single teacher strike when I led Chicago Public Schools, teacher pensions were fully funded and teacher salaries went up. That’s because we had a collaborative working relationship with the teachers union based on mutual respect. pic.twitter.com/lCwUc7ZOzy
— Paul Vallas (@PaulVallas) April 3, 2023
* Vallas campaign…
Vallas for Mayor Public Events for April 3
Paul Vallas returns to his childhood community, joins Senator Dick Durbin, Congressman Bobby Rush & others for GOTV events across Chicago
Chicago, IL – Mayoral Candidate Paul Vallas returns to his childhood neighborhood Monday morning with a visit to a longtime donut shop in Chicago’s Roseland community where he was born and raised. Vallas will also join U.S. Senator Dick Durbin, retired Congressman Bobby Rush, mayoral candidate Ja’Mal Green and others for a series of GOTV events.
* Digital ad or simply a YouTube video?…
The Brandon Johnson campaign today released a new digital ad exposing Paul Vallas repeatedly insulting President Joe Biden and criticizing the Biden Administration on conservative talk radio. The final digital ad before election day comes as Paul Vallas is still under fire for calling the impeachment of Donald Trump a “witch hunt.”
* Candidates generally have protected speech in their ads. Third party advertisers generally do not. Press release…
On Friday, March 31, 2023 the Chicago Republican Party served cease and desist demand letters on multiple local television stations over their broadcast of an advertisement by the Brandon Johnson Campaign that claimed that Paul Vallas had been “endorsed” by the Chicago GOP. […]
Boulton noted that no broadcaster had given a response to the letter despite the passage of 48 hours. “Perhaps they will respond to the Federal Communications Commission,” Boulton speculated.
* Isabel’s roundup…
* Tribune | Brandon Johnson on the campaign trail: Banter, invocations of Black forebears — and promises of a Chicago brimming in ‘vibrancy’: Johnson then launched into his stump speech centered on the single-word theme of his campaign: “investment.” He vowed access to fully funded neighborhood schools, affordable housing, new senior facilities, reliable transportation, a healthy environment and good jobs.
* Tribune | Paul Vallas on the campaign trail: ‘Wonkish’ spiels, boundless anecdotes — and a laser focus on crime: But soon, the focus turned to an issue that’s caused the Chicago mayoral candidate to visibly wince on the campaign trail: repeated attacks from rival Brandon Johnson claiming that Vallas opposes the teaching of Black history and has palled around with right-wing extremists. “It’s frustrating when somebody calls you a racist,” he said, unprompted. “Racists don’t do 55% minority contractors. Racists don’t go to New Orleans when 110 of the 120 schools have been destroyed by Hurricane Katrina and were uninhabitable.”
* Sun-Times Editorial Board | The next mayor has a chance to revitalize public education in Chicago: Lobby in Springfield for full funding of the state’s Evidence-Based Formula. The EBF ties school funding directly to the costs of educational practices that research has proven will improve achievement. Created by legislators in fiscal year 2018, it has funneled $1.6 billion more to public schools since then, most of it going to the neediest schools across Illinois, and has provided money for property tax relief as well. Problem is, the state has yet to fully fund the EBF; it’s underfunded by $3.6 billion.
* The Hill | Chicago mayor’s race reaches fever pitch in final days: While some strategists caution against looking at municipal elections strictly through a national lens, many observers are watching the Chicago mayor’s race to gauge the mood of the electorate as Democrats prepare to face another presidential cycle.
* Politico | ‘A dangerous force’: Chicago mayor’s race tests teachers union clout: In Brandon Johnson — a progressive county commissioner, former CTU organizer and teacher whose soaring oratory has been a hallmark of rallies and contract fights — the union’s critics see a takeover of the city’s politics.
* NYT | Chicagoans Are Picking a Mayor. Here’s What Matters From 4 Key Wards.: The residents of the 19th Ward on the Far Southwest Side of Chicago know how the rest of the city sees them: a white, conservative bubble of police officers and firefighters, Irish pubs and Catholic churches that is a relic of the old Chicago political machine. “There is that history,” said Clare Duggan, a Democratic political organizer who is a resident and native of the Beverly neighborhood. “But we have a dichotomy in the 19th Ward.”
* Tribune | Chicago mayoral candidate Brandon Johnson pays off more than $3,000 in water bill debts to the city: Initially, the Johnson campaign released a statement noting the bills were “on a previously established payment plan, and are on schedule to be fully resolved before (he) takes office as our next mayor.” […] “Like a lot of working families, a few years ago, my family got behind on our water bills and established a payment plan. We’re not alone — there’s $421 million in unpaid water bills right now because for too long our city has leaned on rate hikes and fees to combat the budget deficit Paul contributed to,” Johnson said. “I don’t want this to be a distraction in the crucial final days of this race, so we’ve tightened our belt and decided to pay it off now. I have zero debt with the city.”
* New Yorker | Paul Vallas’s Cops-and-Crime Campaign to Run Chicago: Early on, Vallas seized on the violence that has spiked in Chicago, and across the country, during the pandemic. In a recent poll, sixty-three per cent of Chicagoans said that they feel unsafe in daily life. Vallas, who credits the four police officers in his family for inspiring his public-safety policies, has pledged to fill the department’s seventeen hundred vacancies. “He’s meeting people where they are,” Aviva Bowen, a political strategist, told me. “They’re afraid.” At the same time, he needs to draw in voters who want major reforms in a department that is currently operating under a federal consent decree and has paid hundreds of millions of dollars to settle complaints of brutality. It’s a tough needle to thread. He’s advancing a lower-key community-policing model and pledging “zero tolerance” for officers who violate the law or the Constitution, while also welcoming the endorsement of Chicago’s Fraternal Order of Police, whose leader, John Catanzara, has posted on Facebook that Muslims “all deserve a bullet.”
* Monroe Anderson | What makes Paul Vallas the “Democrat of choice” for powerful Republicans?: If Vallas’s newly hired police turn out to be a bunch of Officer Friendlies, treating Black men on the West Side like they treat white men in Lincoln Park, that would be a step in the right direction. On the other hand, if the officers become an occupying army in the Black community, sprinkled with some Jon Burge and Jason Van Dyke types, then we can get ready for more tortured false confessions and more mass protests over trigger-happy cops using Black men for target practice.
* Chalkbeat | Comparing Chicago’s 2023 mayoral candidates on 5 key education issues: Johnson wants to overhaul the district’s current student-based budgeting system, which he argues has been harmful to schools. Basing school budgetson enrollment restricts individual campuses from giving students a full offering of programs and support, he’s said in the campaign trail. Instead, he favors an approach that fully funds school staff — including social workers, librarians, and nurses — regardless of enrollment. […] Vallas wants to get more funding directly to individual schools and out of central office. On the campaign trail, he has argued that only 60% of the district’s budget is currently making it to schools. Vallas favors a system that lets Local Schools Councils, elected members at each school, decide how funds are spent in their respective buildings. He also wants state funds such as Title I directly to assigned schools.
* Block Club | Election Day ‘Get-Out-The-Vote’ Efforts Could Be Deciding Factor In Nail-Biter Mayor’s Race, Experts Say: “A final push to get out the vote is going to make the difference,” Dominguez said. “There’s just such a large number of undecideds, and both candidates need to find ways to elevate enthusiasm amongst their base.” A neck-and-neck race with more than 200,000 vote-by-mail ballots out means there may not be a clear winner by election night, said Max Bever, Chicago Board of Election Commissioners spokesperson. Experts similarly warned of that possibility ahead of the Feb. 28 election, and multiple aldermanic results weren’t determined until mid-March.
* Sun-Times | 6th, 21st Ward candidates discuss future of South Side ahead of runoff: Time to ‘resurrect dreams of residents’: Two South Side City Council races put a pair of neighborhood pastors, a retired firefighter and a community activist into runoff contests in wards where longtime alderpersons are exiting their posts.
* Block Club | Chicagoans Should Vote Early As Tornadoes Possible, Severe Storms Expected Election Day, Officials Say: Tuesday’s election is expected to be highly consequential: Chicagoans will vote on the city’s next mayor, choosing between the ideologically divided Brandon Johnson and Paul Vallas. Fourteen aldermanic races are also up for grabs in the runoff election. But potentially dangerous storms are also expected Tuesday, especially later in the day: There could be damaging wind, hail and tornadoes, according to the National Weather Service.
* Tribune | As city’s most active voting precinct, Cook County inmates vote with help from jail and advocates: Voting at the Cook County Jail has risen sharply since the jail added pioneering in-person polling places in 2020. Incarcerated voters say they feel more heard as voting rights groups work to educate and register inmates, and politicians are taking note of the increasingly involved voters.
* WTTW | Chicago Public Schools Teacher Charged With Stalking Mayor Lori Lightfoot: Garrett McLinn was also charged with disorderly conduct and five counts of resisting a police officer, according to police. The arrest took place on the Logan Square block where Lightfoot lives. Sources close to Lightfoot say members of the mayor’s security detail confronted McLinn as he was causing a disruption outside of her home, and that the confrontation escalated. McLinn has appeared outside the mayor’s house on at least one other occasion, sources said.
* Crain’s | Why the City Council structure gives rise to corruption: “When people understandably and rationally assume that actors in city government are acting in their own interests and not the interests of the people they serve, that makes it harder to conduct responsible government,” says Deborah Witzburg, Chicago’s inspector general. “Chicago has not earned the benefit of any doubt. We have earned ourselves a world in which people profoundly distrust city government, and so when things go wrong, there is gaping space for worst assumptions.”
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 10:26 am
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Never in my lifetime would I have thought a Republican would lead the polling in a race for Mayor of Chicago.
Perhaps Papa Bruce should have just pretended to be a Democrat.
Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 10:32 am
To say Paul Vallas is a Republican is quite something. I would hate to be the prosecutor tasked with convicting him of that in a court of law, and it apparently isn’t sticking in the court of public opinion either.
Comment by Chicago Republican Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 10:36 am
Maybe this will dispel the myth that people don’t care about fighting crime. When it’s D vs. R in a city like Chicago, of course the Republican would have no chance. But D vs. D is another story, and I hope people open their eyes to the concerns of Democratic voters who they otherwise respect and court.
Comment by Torco Sign Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 10:36 am
That two minute ad was something. It took me a while to realize what it was but once I did, I couldn’t believe how long it lasted.
Interesting strategy to say the least.
Comment by low level Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 10:37 am
The prospect of Vallas selling the City for scrap- like Sunbeam and then Sears just leaves me so sad.
Comment by West Sider Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 10:40 am
I already am hearing people saying that Johnson is going to lose because he’s not progressive enough and has flip-flopped since the runoff. The man is literally the CTU candidate they’ve always wanted, but they are not going to learn a lesson if he loses this.
Comment by NIU Grad Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 10:42 am
You sure you have the correct numbers for the most recent Victory Research poll? @ILPollster tweeted about 12 hours ago it was 49.6 Vallas, 45.4 Johnson and 5% undecided.
Comment by DCtoCHI Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 10:44 am
It’s a turnout race now, the extremes already know where they are at.
===Never in my lifetime would I have thought a Republican===
I’d tweak that a smidge.
Lifelong Daley Democrats are embracing racist thinkers, insurrection apologists, and conspiracy theorists.
The irony, of course, is those same Democrats that told Republicans to abandon these people, but now they too embrace them.
Tomorrow will be so interesting
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 10:50 am
===in a court of law===
Friend, this is politics, not a court of law.
Keep up.
Vallas’ words also say he is more of a Republican in some instances, now, I know folks like to ignore inconveniences…
I also believe too, Vallas is a Dem. A Daley Dem.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 10:52 am
== You sure you have the correct numbers for the most recent Victory Research poll? @ILPollster tweeted about 12 hours ago it was 49.6 Vallas, 45.4 Johnson and 5% undecided.==
Which is what the numbers above said. 50-45
Comment by fs Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:05 am
===Which is what the numbers above said===
Not initially. There was a typo.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:08 am
I am mystified by the Johnson campaign. My guess is that the post election analysis is going to summarize his candidacy as having been plagued by unforced errors. Paying the tickets and water bills was a total no brainer so why did it take until March of 2023? Not moving towards the center to accommodate establishment Democrats was another big mistake. Vallas scored almost all of those endorsements.
Comment by Gravitas Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:09 am
===it apparently isn’t sticking in the court of public opinion either===
There are quite a few recordings of Paul Vallas announcing his Republicanism and the Johnson Campaign has tried to make those relevant. They don’t exactly have the best campaign resources to make them very wide spread, but those recordings aren’t going away and should Paul Vallas win those recordings are going to continue to show up and there’s no final verdict in the court of public opinion. If he wins Paul Vallas is going to have a problem with a lot of things he said to appeal to the listeners of conservative talk radio.
Especially comments that show him to be completely ignorant of foreign policy, or comments where he is apparently attacking Jill Biden of all people. But given their living arrangement, Mr. Vallas may just be lashing out because his own marriage is failing.
===Lifelong Daley Democrats are embracing racist thinkers, insurrection apologists, and conspiracy theorists.===
Racism in Chicago is hardly a new thing, but the faction being defined by relationships to or with the ol’ Richard M. Daley machine is a decent way to define this faction, which happens to have some racial overtones. The last decade has demonstrated more and more that that group has power slipping away from them, and oh the audacity of indicting Speaker Madigan who was just doing things the Chicago Way.
Senator Dick Durbin’s endorsement may just wind up being another in a long line of confusing things the Senator has done recently that suggests he has strong opinions about the Democratic Party in Illinois no matter how poorly formed that opinion is.
Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:22 am
==I am mystified by the Johnson campaign==
100%. It will be an early night. Vallas by 5 has been my gut feeling for some time and this poll just confirms it for me. Of course I could be totally full of it as well.
Comment by low level Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:23 am
“Never in my lifetime would I have thought a Republican would lead the polling in a race for Mayor of Chicago.”
Vallas is no Republican - but GOP voters will put him over the top.
Comment by Donnie Elgin Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:23 am
Vallas will win, but I can’t get happy about it.
My beloved city is at a crossroad, and I don’t think
he’s up for the challenge.
I hope I’m wrong.
Comment by Loop Lady Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:27 am
Pete Giangreco said a few weeks ago this is a race between a Republican and a socialist. I go back-and-forth in my own mind on weather that’s legit or unfair.
I’d say it’s a contest between an establishmentarian approach to government that focuses on delivering services and building stuff versus an ideologically-driven movement that focuses on driving social justice and fairness through municipal governance.
Or to completely oversimplify things, do you want a mayor who focuses on picking up the garbage or one who wants to transform the city?
Comment by Roman Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:29 am
===Not moving towards the center to accommodate establishment Democrats was another big mistake===
What exactly is the center here?
What would a “move to the center” have looked like?
Dog whistles and privatization?
Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:30 am
A visual poll…walking around in the last few weeks from Division to North Avenue and the lakefront to Clark Street, many Vallas for Mayor signs. Didn’t see any signage for Johnson in the area.
Comment by Rudy’s teeth Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:30 am
===but GOP voters will put him over the top.===
The worst elements of the ILGOP are being courted
It’s not a happenstance thing, and further, the worst elements of the ILGOP being courted aren’t being discouraged from support, and while the lip service exists in the narrow, I’ve yet to hear about Vallas looking at the Proft or Ives types as disqualifying himself, Vallas does not mind voters “on their own” finding a home with Vallas.
Daley Dems are quite comfortable with this;
Pritzker is better than Bailey and Bailey is better than Johnson.
For me, how the pluralities in minority wards fall, that is the real watch for me.
Percentage is the beauty part of numbers, the raw pluralities are what win or lose elections.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:39 am
I am not sure what will happen tomorrow but it has been quite a Mayor’s race. Brandon Johnson has already won a bright future and Paul Vallas has finally run a solid campaign. I am still expecting another great night for Johnson.
Comment by Corruption Committee Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:44 am
Got several mailers from Vallas, 2 telephone calls, a letter from the Dem Committeeman who is also the Alderman as well as a postcard from a neighbor.
Nothing from Johnson.
Could just be my zip code.
Comment by Back to the Future Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:44 am
Lori Lightfoot was effectively the Republican candidate against Toni Preckwinkle and she has governed like a far-right republican.
Comment by Early voter Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:45 am
==she has governed like a far-right republican.==
Lol. Thats why all the diversity and inclusion and the city investment on the south and west side, right? Im not a fan of hers by far, but your statement is nonsense.
Comment by low level Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:48 am
That tweet about Dispicable Vallas supporters and Johnson’s insufferable ones was really on point. Still, I held my nose and voted Vallas.
Comment by Chito Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:49 am
MLL took the Columbus statues down because she governed like a far right Republican. Ok.
Comment by low level Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:52 am
===Mr. Vallas may just be lashing out because his own marriage is failing.===
Strange territory to get into.
Comment by Rogo Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:53 am
===MLL took the Columbus statues down because she governed like a far right Republican. Ok.===
Explain the Lori Lightfoot constituency.
Thanks.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:59 am
The FOP couldnt stand her because she is a far right Republican. Got it.
Comment by low level Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 12:02 pm
===Strange territory to get into.===
If you watch the Johnson “digital ad” it has Vallas mocking an aspect of the President and First Lady’s personal relationship. If you consider that Paul Vallas, apparently, has been living in an apartment all by himself while his wife, Sharon Vallas, continues to reside in the home they both own my comment makes a little more sense.
Joe Biden likes his wife. Paul Vallas mocked that on a broadcasted and recorded segment.
The fact that Paul doesn’t life with his wife has been discussed here quite a bit. Since, you know, we have to accept that Paul Vallas doesn’t live with his wife in order for him to be qualified to run for Mayor of Chicago.
https://capitolfax.com/2023/02/10/where-does-paul-vallas-really-live/
Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 12:02 pm
==But given their living arrangement, Mr. Vallas may just be lashing out because his own marriage is failing.==
Imagine living in the same metro area and visiting your spouse once a week for coffee.
Comment by Big Dipper Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 12:03 pm
===The FOP couldnt stand her because she is a far right Republican.===
Are you admitting the FOP is Far Right?
Huh.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 12:05 pm
===Imagine living in the same metro area and visiting your spouse once a week for coffee. ===
It’s handy that Vallas was running for Mayor in 2019 otherwise using his business partner’s address to register to vote and for residency would have looked like an affair rather than just lying to get on the ballot.
Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 12:15 pm
If this goes as appears, would it be too much to attribute some of this to a great campaign? Right when the oppo came out on Vallas, his campaign responded by portraying him as the “lifelong Democrat” who backed SSM even before Biden, etc. This was before any candidates focused on him. The Vallas campaign has been hammering the “lifelong liberal” message. He has endorsements from key Democratic African-Americans and others.
Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 12:27 pm
- low level - Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:23 am:
Vallas and company are running around saying the opposite.
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/vallas-campaign-predicts-no-clear-winner-on-election-night-in-chicago-mayoral-race/3107109/
Comment by Google Is Your Friend Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 12:33 pm
==Brandon Johnson has already won a bright future==
There’s always Danny Davis’ seat when he retires, but CTU and SEIU didn’t have to spend millions to win that for him.
Comment by City Zen Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 12:33 pm
I say this as a Johnson voter. The main reason I’ve never felt comfortable with the Bernie wing of the party is not really policy differences but that they often run terrible general election campaigns. Too much preaching to the choir, not enough building and expanding from their base of support. Too rigid and unwilling to compromise.
I just hope Vallas is thwarted trying any Daley-style privatization deals. Last thing this city needs is another crooked parking meter deal.
Comment by ChicagoVinny Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 12:41 pm
You can rule out water reclamation district
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 12:42 pm
“Lifelong Daley Democrats are embracing racist thinkers, insurrection apologists, and conspiracy theorists.”
OW, you are not from here. You don’t live here. You don’t really understand Chicago.
Many Chicagoans are concerned about the City and want to see it managed better. That’s it.
Comment by Cermak Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 12:52 pm
Honest question: do any of these polls account for the GOP voters Vallas will get? How does one even ID them to poll them?
Comment by Bertram Grover Weeks Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 12:54 pm
=, teacher pensions were fully funded=
It wasn’t for long. And those strikes were averted by pumping money into salaries and not the pension.
=“This is about Black labor versus white wealth. This is what this battle is about.”=
Apparently Johnson has his own dog whistles as well. If you don’t think that statement is problematic you should. Mr. “I’m running a uniter campaign” sure doesn’t sound like it. Sounds more like left wing culture wars.
Vallas disqualified himself in my mind when he embraced Awake Illinois and the FOP.
I am glad I don’t have to vote in this one. I couldn’t even hold my nose.
Comment by JS Mill Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 12:57 pm
===There’s always Danny Davis’ seat when he retires===
Or Toni Preckwinkle’s.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 12:58 pm
==Vallas and company are running around saying the opposite.==
I know, but when you look at the areas he is polling well in; namely, the NW and SW sides and downtown/lakefront precincts, those also are areas w sky high turnout.
Throw in the support he will get from African Americans who are persuaded by Jesse White and / or Willie Wilson and others (Rod Sawyer, Sophia King, etc etc) and I just think it all adds up to a 5%+ win for Vallas. Hispanic wards will be strong for him as well.
The latest revelation about Johnson’s past fines doesn’t help him.
Comment by low level Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 1:03 pm
==There’s always Danny Davis’ seat when he retires, but CTU and SEIU didn’t have to spend millions to win that for him.==
Kina Collins has challenged Davis in the past two primaries and received 45% of the vote last time. I don’t think Johnson winning that seat is a slam dunk by any stretch.
Comment by Anon324 Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 1:09 pm
Does anyone else find it kind of interesting/funny that Victory Research is being run by someone convicted of election fraud due to petition chicanery and now he has become a trusted voice in polling somehow?
I think Vallas will win, but I would be skeptical of just about anything that guy touches.
Comment by interestante Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 1:29 pm
Also totally agree with Cermak.
Comment by interestante Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 1:30 pm
Yeah, ditto what everyone has said, if Vallas is a Republican, Chicago already had a Republican mayor for over 20 years.
His bit about “I never had CTU strife while I was in charge”, though, is pretty amazing. It is true of course. The CTU does not play it up but when Vallas was raiding their (then decently-well funded) pensions, to pay in part for higher teacher salaries in the 1990s, robbing Peter / Paul, etc.m plenty of teachers were fine with it. And the then-CTU leadership was most definitely fine with it.
If Republican / Daley means, “I will buy off support from everyone I need, by writing checks future Chicagoans will have to cash,” then Vallas may be a Daley-Republican. Only Vallas can’t really repeat that performance come 2024, is my fiscal understanding.
Comment by ZC Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 1:35 pm
===Apparently Johnson has his own dog whistles as well. […] Sounds more like left wing culture wars.===
Hey now, JS, it sort of sounds like you’re denying that systemic racism in the United States is a thing.
Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 1:38 pm
===you are not from here. You don’t live here. You don’t really understand Chicago.===
LOL.
You know nothing about “me”, as I know nothing about you.
I feel pretty confident in my Chicago bona fides, and further… lol… if you’re taking offense at Daley Dems embracing racist thinkers, conspiracy theorists, and insurrection apologists… I’d only say… the Vrdolyak 29, Bernie Epton, Vrdolyak’s turn as a Republican and Chair..
I know it’s inconvenient that the truth isn’t all that great, but too many Dems told me that Republicans embracing the worst elements in politics to win elections *is* bad.
Vallas is courting these folks.
===Hispanic wards will be strong for him as well.===
Oh, we’re gonna find out.
What is your over/under for Vallas support in Black Wards and minority wards?
22%?… 25%?
Just curious.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 1:43 pm
=I just hope Vallas is thwarted trying any Daley-style privatization deals. Last thing this city needs is another crooked parking meter deal.=
Let’s see….tollways already sold. Navy Pier already sold. Parking meters (sob) sold.
That leaves selling the municipal water system to American Water.
And capital appreciation bonds. And interest rate swaps. Auction rate securities…..
Comment by TinyDancer(FKASue) Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 2:00 pm
I’d imagine Vallas gets over 25% in Black wards.
What’s the over/under on Johnson among Asian voters? 10%? 20%?
Comment by Interestante Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 2:03 pm
“Pete Giangreco said a few weeks ago this is a race between a Republican and a socialist”
Nobody seems to know what socialism is. It’s basically come to mean civil society, rather than its actual meaning, which is when workers own the means of production (rather than investors/capitalists who provide money, but not labor). And even at its wrong meaning as civil society where there is a social safety net and people take care of and invest in each other, a lot of people seem to hate the idea. Eep.
Comment by Techie Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 2:05 pm
===I’d imagine Vallas gets over 25% in Black wards.===
“Ok”
===What’s the over/under on Johnson among Asian voters? 10%? 20%?===
Considering what is going on in the 11th Ward? Tough to speculate as it seems the Daley Crew is playing games to where is what. That aldermanic will askew things in that ward and those neighborhoods
Did I get that right, Daleys and the 11th Ward?
:)
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 2:08 pm
== Too much preaching to the choir, not enough building and expanding from their base ==
This is the essence of the debate the “Bernie wing” has sparked among Democratic strategists: does the party win elections by persuading moderate swing voters or by inspiring base supporters (many of whom allegedly stay home on Election Day) to show up and vote? The Bernie wing says the latter is the answer.
Johnson, true to Bernie form, is running an inspiration-rather-than-persuasion campaign. In theory, that should work in a Chicago mayoral race, which is much more like a Dem primary that a general election. If it doesn’t, Chicago’s Bernie wing might have some soul searching to do.
Comment by Roman Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 2:18 pm
Calling Vallas a Republican is a fair hit. And he’s certainly given more than amply cause for this given the things he’s said and where he’s said them. But for Johnson using this as a campaign strategy is a bit perilous. It only works if you can convince more would be Vallas to switch allegiances. But if all it does is encourage centrist Democrats and GOP voters to get out and vote for Vallas then it’s a really flawed strategy.
Comment by Pundent Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 2:33 pm
We have been getting mail flyers every day from both sides. Two Johnson people have knocked on the door. Vallas door hangers are not being hung on the door but are being thrown on the sidewalk in front of our house so they are shellacked on to the concrete with this rain. Please hang the door hanger on a door.
I early voted yesterday at my ward’s designated site–no one in line though my spouse said there was a line later in the afternoon. For many years before this election, I only had to indicate year of birth for me to get my ballot; now I have to give the full date of birth which I voiced displeasure with since that’s an identity theft risk. The polling person shrugged it off, saying, well I can see your full social security number here in your record!
Comment by 32nd Ward Roscoe Village Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 2:42 pm
I hear what Giangreco thinks, but I think it is more like two candidates who are like a doll with a pull string that makes them talk. One candidate says “more money, more money” for every issue and the other says “more police, more police” for every issue. I think more money, while painful for some, is actually a more accurate way to govern. Good luck, Chicago.
Comment by Amalia Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 2:46 pm
Will be interesting to see if severe weather is a factor with Vallas up 7 among those who haven’t voted.
Comment by South of 80 Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 2:49 pm
==I’d imagine Vallas gets over 25% in Black wards.==
I agree. All those African American elected officials arent endorsing him are doing so in part because they feel he will do well in their respective constituencies.
Comment by low level Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 2:56 pm
=You know nothing about “me”, as I know nothing about you.=
OW, I know you are not from here. I know you said 500,000 early votes had been counted for round 2 (roughly 3 weeks before early voting began).
You don’t know Chicago.
Comment by Cermak Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 2:59 pm
===All those African American elected officials arent endorsing him are doing so in part because they feel he will do well in their respective constituencies.===
Narrator: Getting 25% is still losing
It’s an odd thing pretending race isn’t going to be factor, but Vallas being endorsed is “only” worth a guesstimate of ~ 25%?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 3:00 pm
===I know you are not from here===
“Sure, Jan”, double down on things you don’t know about, lol. That makes sense.
===know you said 500,000 early votes had been counted for round 2 (roughly 3 weeks before early voting began)===
Which, of course, I corrected, and admitted a mistake to reading… a tweet, your “perfection” is “end of the bar guy yelling at the tv” funny.
I really hope you don’t make any errors
:)
===You don’t know Chicago.===
I do feel terribly sorry you feel as you do. Supporting a candidate who embraces the worst elements of racism, disinformation, I mean, it stinks, but Chicago has had problems with race alone for decades.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 3:05 pm
===Narrator: Getting 25% is still losing===
OW is right. The 1970s Democratic Party wants to treat black voters like a monolith, but there are some very broad generational divides at play. It gets complicated that if race and the impacts of race are removed from consideration, some of that same block would have a lot more in common with the alt-right than they do with the Democratic Party.
I think Paul Vallas getting 25% in some of those wards would be an outstanding number for him. If he gets less than 20% I think he may have some serious problems getting to the win.
Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 3:08 pm
Picked the least worst.
Held my nose.
Cringed.
And voted.
Comment by TinyDancer(FKASue) Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 3:11 pm
The Johnson campaign’s fumbling of the ball on his unpaid water bill may have just been enough for lingering undecideds to hold their nose and vote for vallas. And him to characterize his household as a working family while making $200k a year was icing on the cake. There’s gonna be a lot of nose holding in the polls tomorrow, but what choice do we have?
Comment by Shytown Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 3:25 pm
- Candy Dogood -
First, thanks.
To this…
===I think Paul Vallas getting 25% in some of those wards would be an outstanding number for him. If he gets less than 20% I think he may have some serious problems getting to the win.===
No honest disagreement, only to add that plurality to the percentages is where Johnson needs his numbers.
A lower-lower turnout with Vallas at ~25% could/would be fatal to Johnson and his need to really pick off the wards Lightfoot carried and keep Vallas from being the “Lightfoot voter alternate” in those wards.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 3:26 pm
=Supporting a candidate who embraces the worst elements of racism, disinformation, I mean, it stinks, but Chicago has had problems with race alone for decades.=
I haven’t supported anyone in Round 2 after my preferred candidate lost in Round 1.
You shouldn’t assume it is as binary as it is. Most voters see some nuance here and truly want someone in there that can manage things better.
Comment by Cermak Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 3:41 pm
===You shouldn’t assume it is as binary as it is. Most voters see some nuance here===
lol, nope.
I was told with Trump by Democrats constantly there’s no nuance for a man courting the worst elements of American society.
Now there’s nuance? Now? Now there’s a nuance with Ives, Proft, Bailey?
I better see that nuance… “before it’s too late”… Bernie Epton style.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 3:45 pm
===…want someone in there that can manage things better.===
The “you know, the trains ran on time” is mocked by those who understand the idea that supporting the worst societal elements is worth trains running on time.
I wish you well.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 3:48 pm
Honestly, OW ruins the conversation on here with his hostility.
Comment by Forever906 Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 3:52 pm
===ruins the conversation on here with his hostility===
Welp, I’ll only say this;
Starting on January, 2017, I was told over and over, “Democrats would never” when it came to the things and courting of folks that are hostile towards diversity and race.
I mean, daily, how Republicans are this and that to courting the worst folks to build electoral success, and I never ever supported those Republicans, but I was reminded constantly about the bad.
Now? Well, now there’s “nuance”?
Really? Nuance?
That’s just crazy to any thought that “we’d never as a party” to “well, you see, there’s nuance”
It’s inconvenient, I grant you.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 3:56 pm
I see plenty of hostility directed at him and others who are not apologists for the right wing.
Comment by Big Dipper Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 3:57 pm
If Brandon Johnson prepared for his candidacy, he would have paid his outstanding debts before he entered the race for the mayor’s office.
An amateur move by a candidate, Johnson is not ready for the responsibilities of managing a major city. An empty suit full of rhetoric is not a viable candidate for the office of mayor of the city of Chicago.
Comment by Rudy’s teeth Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 4:02 pm
I just find it amazing, on the one hand we have all this about how Republican Vallas is and yet he is endorsed by Dick Durbin, Jesse White and other dyed in the wool Dems throughout the city. Even the head of the City Council Progressive Caucus - Sophia King - has endorsed Vallas.
Comment by low level Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 4:07 pm
=I was told with Trump by Democrats constantly there’s no nuance for a man courting the worst elements of American society.=
I agree wholeheartedly. At the same time there were Obama voters who became Trump voters, although maybe those weren’t staunch democrats. But maybe there is some nuance in all of this. And it begs the question are these really Vallas supporters or individuals who can’t bring themselves to vote for Johnson for whatever reason?
Comment by Pundent Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 4:18 pm
===I just find it amazing===
There’s nothing amazing going on.
* Daleyites
* LaSalle Street types and $$$
* Worst elements of folks that support the ugly of Trump
That’s the three prongs. They all don’t have to be congruent, but turning a blind eye to the worst elements is called “nuance”… that was wholly unacceptable in November 2022
It’s inconvenient, but true
- Pundent -
Thanks.
===And it begs the question are these really Vallas supporters or individuals who can’t bring themselves to vote for Johnson for whatever reason?===
See: “Before it’s too late”
Pritzker needs to beat Bailey, but Bailey is needed to beat Johnson is a thing, apparently
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 4:32 pm
=== he would have paid his outstanding debts before he entered the race for the mayor’s office. ===
Ding-ding-ding. I made sure to pay an old $30 parking ticket before I filed my nominating papers for my failed attempt at seeking office several years ago. And it was far lower-profile than Mayor of Chicago.
Comment by Tim Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 4:36 pm
== Honestly, OW ruins the conversation on here with his hostility. ==
I enjoy OW’s posts much more often than not. But yeah, sometimes I wish he’d sit out a play or two.
Comment by Tony T. Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 4:40 pm
-Bailey is better than Johnson-
OW, I must admit I would have never expected this sort of statement out of you. We are talking Darren Bailey here.
Comment by Steve Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 5:35 pm
===I must admit I would have never expected this sort of statement out of you.===
Isn’t that the thinking?
“Yeah, Vallas and Bailey, but we can’t have Johnson”
In odd ways (plural) it makes sense in some Chicago circles. I can’t help that
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 5:38 pm
-I enjoy OW’s posts much more often than not-
I agree. He does a good job. I say this even though I don’t agree with him always. He’s prolific: he can be because he does know a lot of Illinois politics.
Comment by Steve Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 6:33 pm
===much more often than not===
I have a clunker or three far more often than not.
And - Steve -, I do appreciate your kind words, including the use of “prolific”, which is also far too fair.
To the post,
As these last waning hours burn to election morning I’m reminded about polls, and the simplicity that the last poll, and it’s results after tomorrow will be the one that matters
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 6:45 pm
===Imagine living in the same metro area and visiting your spouse once a week for coffee. ===
Thats what a lot of CPD and other city employees are forced to do. If Vallas gets in, maybe he will get rid of that requirement.
Comment by DuPage Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 9:01 pm
==Thats what a lot of CPD and other city employees are forced to do.==
They’ve been living apart for 15 years, at no time during which he was a Chicago employee with a residency requirement. Do you need it spelled out?
Comment by Big Dipper Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 9:25 pm
https://twitter.com/izqstrategies/status/1643077387595415553?s=46&t=y5CdKPhgbhJUE3bv4qTHGQ
Comment by Big Dipper Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 10:31 pm