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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
If you’re getting a strong and unpleasant sense of déjà vu about the new U.S. Census Bureau’s population estimates for counties, including Cook County, you’re not alone. U.S. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, D-Ill., is feeling it as well.
Krishnamoorthi, who sits on the House Oversight and Accountability Committee, has been trying to force the Census Bureau to retool its population estimates because they have been so awfully inaccurate going back years and years.
The Census Bureau’s annual statewide population estimates released in December 2020 claimed Illinois had cumulatively lost an astounding 240,000 people over the previous decade, representing 2% of the state’s population.
The publication of those estimates every year showing sharp population declines regularly provoked an uproar in the news media and among pundits, particularly on the rightward end of the spectrum. And it came to a head in 2020, when the Census claimed Illinois had lost the equivalent of more than two Springfields.
But when the actual Census, based on real-life counts of human beings and not estimates, was published in 2021, the state’s population loss was pegged at 18,000 people, just 7.5% of the previously estimated loss.
The following year, after the Census Bureau delved deeply into its own numbers, the federal agency admitted it had blundered. The Bureau’s Post-Enumeration Survey, using what the Census Bureau said was a “statistical technique called dual-system estimation,” found that Illinois’ population actually grew by about 250,000 people, an almost 500,000-person shift from that December 2020 estimate.
Yet, here we are, back to reading about the results of annual U.S. Census surveys, and nobody seems to remember any of that history or has bothered to remind the public to take these estimates with a gigantic grain of salt.
This past December, the Census Bureau released estimates claiming the state’s population had fallen by 113,776 people, which prompted several handwringing stories without any historical context.
In January, Krishnamoorthi called on the Bureau to conduct a thorough methodological review of its estimate process. A month later, Krishnamoorthi received a communication from the Bureau saying this review would, indeed, be done, but “potential” changes using tools from the Post-Enumeration Survey wouldn’t be implemented until this coming December at the very earliest, if at all.
Which brings us to last week.
“Cook County lost 68,000 people last year, Census Bureau says,” blared a recent Crain’s Chicago Business headline about the Bureau’s newly released “Vintage 2022 estimates.” The story included no context about the wild inaccuracy of previous Census Bureau estimates.
Crain’s wasn’t alone. “Cook County population drop second-worst in country,” declared a Sun-Times headline. That story, too, did not include any context of prior errors. “Baseball season has begun and Cook County residents are going, going, gone by the tens of thousands, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest estimates,” the story began.
“Census data shows urban counties rebounding, but Cook County’s population has yet to recover from pandemic dip,” was the Chicago Tribune’s take, also without any reference to the Bureau’s previous blunders.
The Bureau’s faulty estimates did vast reputational harm to the state during the previous decade and centered intense public debate around proposed policy fixes to halt what was thought to be a huge population decline, which turned out not to be real when actual noses were counted. And even then, a post-count examination found the physical headcount was short by a very large margin.
So, Krishnamoorthi has written yet another letter to the Census Bureau demanding answers. The latest estimate “appears to echo” earlier data “that drove misleading narratives and rhetoric surrounding purported population losses in Illinois which were subsequently revealed to be unfounded,” the Schaumburg Democrat wrote to Bureau Director Robert Santos.
And the numbers don’t just harm the state’s reputation and provoke public debates based on faulty data, but they can have a major impact on federal funding the state receives.
“Beyond the implications such data have for our understanding of our state’s population dynamics,” Krishnamoorthi wrote, “Census Bureau data will be utilized over the next decade to allocate roughly $1.5 trillion in federal funding through approximately 100 programs, including Medicaid, SNAP, Medicare, Highway Planning and Construction, and Pell grants.”
The rest of the state’s congressional delegation, including our two U.S. senators, should step up and join Krishnamoorthi’s calls for change at the Census Bureau. And in the meantime, the news media in this state ought to stop flushing the Bureau’s past mistakes down the collective memory hole.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 8:45 am
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I’m sure the IPI’s and LP’s of the world will grab hold of this data and spout off their usual sky is falling drivel.
If they cannot get their act together then they should stop putting out estimates.
Comment by Demoralized Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 8:48 am
This is a big issue and I hope Krishnamoorthi can get some support. A swing of 500,000 people should never happen with any sort of scientific estimate.
Comment by Friendly Bob Adams Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 8:59 am
Great, just great.
Another American institution, founded in need, that one now has to look at skeptically.
Comment by Flyin'Elvis'-Utah Chapter Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 9:19 am
I worked in the field during the 2020 census. The process was extremely disorganized at many levels. I understand it was the height of the pandemic but between the government and uncooperative citizenry I have no doubt there was a large under count.
Comment by Former enumerator Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 9:37 am
Some people may have moved out of Cook County to the nearby collar counties.
Comment by DuPage Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 9:39 am
Troubling If factual, that we added nearly 250,000 then Illinois should not have been reduced by one us congressman to 17, but rather actually increased from 18 to 19 congressional districts.
Comment by CCrider Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 9:41 am
–then Illinois should not have been reduced by one us congressman–
Not necessarily. Apportionment is based on the ratio of state population to total population, since the total number of seats is fixed at 435. It is possible to gain population, and still lose a seat. There are a few states in the last round that experienced that exact outcome - Michigan for example.
Comment by TheInvisibleMan Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 9:53 am
–then Illinois should not have been reduced by one us congressman–
Doing rough math, without the inaccuracy, our population would be just higher than Pennsylvania’s. They also lost one seat in 2020 and stand at the same 17 we currently have. So in that regard… no harm no foul.
Comment by Guy Probably Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 10:10 am
=== Illinois’ population actually grew by about 250,000 people, an almost 500,000-person shift from that December 2020 estimate.===
A half million is a lot of people.
===The rest of the state’s congressional delegation, including our two U.S. senators, should step up and join Krishnamoorthi’s calls for change at the Census Bureau===
There are a couple of folks in our delegation that might not be able to track this topic — Bost and Miller to specifically name them. At least I could see Bost getting on board with it while Miller will probably just be delighted at the idea of “people from Chicago” being under represented in congress.
Great column, Rich.
Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 10:31 am
Fixing the census ASAP should be a high federal priority. The impact of bad and untimely results are too important when it comes to elected representation and federal fund allocation. This should have (as I am pearl clutching) bi-partisan support.
Comment by levivotedforjudy Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 10:52 am
As someone who moved back to IL from CA after 5 years you would not know that since it was August 2020. On said drive home I must have seen 100 Penske trucks leaving CA on the interstate going east. Hard to believe any of that could have been accurately reported.
Comment by MetroEast Man Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 10:58 am
The estimate that Illinois’ population was undercounted by 1.97%, or about 250,000, was the midpoint provided in the survey. The population could have been undercounted by as much as 440,000 people, or 3.43%, or as little as 65,000 people, or 0.51%, the survey showed.
Comment by ste_with a v_en Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:06 am
I strongly dislike hearing these questionable out migration numbers reported as fact. It really frames discussions about Chicago and Cook County as declining when the reality is the exact opposite. I would much rather bet that Chicago’s population is above 3 million people in 2030 than below.
Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:53 am
the PES , like the physical census, is not as reliable as I would like to see, but it’s all we have at the moment
Comment by Blue Dog Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 11:55 am
great column!
Comment by pc Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 12:46 pm
Great stuff, Rich.
I especially turn to this for the context…
===The Bureau’s faulty estimates did vast reputational harm to the state during the previous decade and centered intense public debate around proposed policy fixes to halt what was thought to be a huge population decline, which turned out not to be real when actual noses were counted. And even then, a post-count examination found the physical headcount was short by a very large margin.===
… because the elements that grift off negatively feast off of numbers that can be seen as confusing or worse numbers where they refuse to see their own takes refuted.
It’s critical for Illinois to maximize its federal dollars, as Illinois is a net loser in federal dollars.
You couple the dollars lost to the negative thoughts to Illinois, I can’t think of any state that has more self loathing while the grifters enjoy the monies gained by fueling such negativity.
Great read, all should be fighting as Raja is.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 12:57 pm
“when actual noses were counted.” I wasn’t aware that the PES actually counted anything.
Comment by Blue Dog Monday, Apr 3, 23 @ 1:58 pm