Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar


Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives


Previous Post: Democratic Party of Illinois launches $300K direct mail, online ad program for school and library board races
Next Post: It’s just a bill

That toddlin’ town roundup: Poll has Vallas’ Black support plummeting

Posted in:

* New poll

In the latest poll conducted by Victory Research on March 20-22, Paul Vallas saw his lead over Brandon Johnson shrink from six points to two, 46.3% to 44.2%, from the previous poll conducted March 6-9. […]

While nearly 10% of voters remain undecided, 15.5% say they could still change their mind.

More here, but some trends outside of the 3.45 MoE are emerging as voters get to know the two candidates better.

By far the most important trend is that even after several high-profile endorsements by Black leaders, Vallas’ support among Black voters has dropped by 13 points since the last poll taken March 6-9. Johnson’s Black support is up by 11 points.

Johnson’s support is rising among women (up 4 points), men (up 6 points), age 46-60 (up 5.5 points), and progressives (up 11 points). Again, at least some of this is because people are just finding out who he is (and are overcoming their anger/disappointment that their first round candidate lost).

Vallas is up among men (4 points), White voters (10 points), Latino voters (6 points) and conservatives (10 points). His support among women is essentially unchanged, which is not a good sign.

And undecideds are down from 16 to 10.

…Adding… I chatted last night with an elected official who said the same exact thing, but I didn’t check all three of the pollster’s results today. Vallas is in the mid 40s, where he has been pretty much the whole time. Is 45-46 a Vallas ceiling? The elected thought it was and that Johnson would overcome it. We’ll see…


Victory Research has done three polls of a Johnson-Vallas runoff:

2/12-15: Vallas 46, Johnson 33
3/6-9: Vallas 45, Johnson 39
3/20-23: Vallas 46, Johnson 44

Vallas steady at 46 while Johnson is consolidating support. Looking to be a very tight race. https://t.co/Z6cBRY86HE

— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) March 23, 2023

* Eric Zorn makes a good point today that Johnson’s endorsements are almost all expected in one way or another. Vallas’ backing, however, has included some shockers, including Jesse White. Whether it does him any good or not is yet to be seen.

* Oh, for Pete’s sake…


In debate, Brandon Johnson says the CTU never called for the removal of police officers from CPS schools, but the union signed a 2020 resolution asking the school board to phase out SROs. (CBOE shot it down, but LSCs did vote individually to remove some): https://t.co/HmWySrqd2I pic.twitter.com/9LYPtzS7pX

— Alice Yin (@byaliceyin) March 22, 2023

* The Cook County Democratic Women’s PAC was shut down by the Illinois State Board of Elections way back in 2014 after it was deemed inactive. The committee faced multiple fines. Press release…

Mayoral candidate Paul Vallas will be endorsed Thursday by leaders of Cook County Democratic Women, a grass-roots organization that works to ensure that women have a presence and a strong voice in national and local elections.

* And now let’s look at Senate Bill 2339, which was introduced back in 2018

Provides that if a law enforcement officer detains a minor for an act that if committed by an adult would constitute vehicular hijacking, aggravated vehicular hijacking, or possession of a stolen motor vehicle, the officer shall deliver the minor to the nearest juvenile officer as provided under the Act. … Provides that should the court order detention, the minor shall be detained, pending the results of a court-ordered psychological evaluation to determine if the minor is a risk to himself, herself, or others.

The bill was sponsored by then Sen. Tony Muñoz. It was amended in the House and then died in the Senate. Brandon Johnson weighed in at the time…


More legislation that criminalizes black children? This is stale & reinforces the attitudes that have led to the mass incarceration of Black people in our nation. Tired of being scapegoats to ignite fear and outright fantasies about the nature of crime in our city #VoteNo #SB2339

— Brandon Johnson (@BrandonCCD1) May 17, 2018

Today from the Vallas campaign…

Chicago is dealing with a major spike in carjackings, with the Chicago Tribune recently reporting that vehicle thefts are up 55% since last year, the largest increase of any U.S. city. But when the state senate unanimously passed a bill to remove loopholes that allowed carjacking suspects to be immediately released with little penalty, Brandon Johnson spoke out against it.

Johnson’s opposition to this common sense public safety measure, coupled with his embrace of the extreme “defund the police” movement, raises significant questions about whether he can be trusted to make Chicago safer according to State Senator Antonio Munoz, who was the lead sponsor of the car theft legislation. Senator Munoz is announcing his endorsement of Paul Vallas for Mayor.

“Chicago has a serious crime problem and we need a Mayor who will side with the victims, not with the perpetrators like Brandon Johnson has done over and over again,” said Senator Munoz. “Brandon Johnson’s approach of defunding the police and opposing stricter penalties for carjacking is the last thing Chicago needs, and that’s why I’m supporting Paul Vallas for Mayor.”

Senator Munoz will be available for comment, if you would like to schedule an interview please contact xxx@xxxxxx.com.

Johnson’s extreme position on crime is clearly out of the mainstream in Chicago, with numerous public opinion polls showing that public safety is the number one issue and residents want more police presence in their neighborhoods.

“Carjacking is an epidemic in our city and it’s shocking that Brandon Johnson tried to stop legislation to ensure that car thieves are held accountable,” said Vallas. “I’m proud to have Senator Munoz’s support because he has a real record of making our community safer, and Brandon Johnson has proven that he can’t be trusted to reduce crime.”

* Moving right along, notice anything missing from this story?

Separately, Johnson’s campaign has manufactured an endorsement and claimed it’s Vallas’.

Context: Oppo research revealed Vallas on a conservative radio show a few years ago claiming Gov. JB Pritzker and Mayor Lori Lightfoot “act like dictators” for their pandemic executive orders.

The oppo prompted Republican Darren Bailey to talk about it on his Facebook live page, which Johnson’s team is calling an endorsement for Vallas. Bailey didn’t endorse anyone.

Johnson’s team isn’t giving up on pinning the Republican label on Vallas, who was officially endorsed Wednesday by former Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn. Vallas was Quinn’s running mate in his failed 2013 race against Bruce Rauner. Though Vallas’ more recent stumble might be spending too much time on conservative talk shows.

It’s right that Bailey didn’t endorse Vallas, as we discussed yesterday. But Bailey didn’t just “talk about” Brandon Johnson. Bailey said that if Johnson was elected, “it’s going to be a dark day.”

Also, it’s not just that Vallas spent a lot of time on talk radio shows, for crying out loud, it’s what he said on those shows and in other venues. For instance…


After enacting $5.4 bi. in permanent tax hikes Pritzker thinks he can fool voters by offering $1 bi. in temporary election year tax relief. Meanwhile proposed state budget is unbalanced for 21st straight yr despite in $8.1 new Fed COVID relief.@MaryAnnAhernNBC @AmyJacobson @wttw

— Paul Vallas (@PaulVallas) February 3, 2022

And somebody dug up this little quote from Vallas on Jeanne Ives’ podcast last year

Vallas: Pritzker of course just announced that he’s lifting the mask mandate. You know, the science, it’s like, it’s more political science.

“Political science” was a common phrase used by covid deniers. Just sayin.

* An excerpt from the Sun-Times story on Johnson’s meeting with the Crain’s editorial board

“Of course, we need the support of Springfield and the City Council [for things like the transaction tax]. … Yes, there’ll be some push and pull on this,” Johnson said.

“That’s why I’m best suited for this position. … I am collaborative. I have relationships in Springfield. My opponent has to figure out how he’s going to convince Democrats to work with him.”

He noted he “used to work” for Illinois Senate President Don Harmon and that Johnson’s three kids “grew up together” with Speaker Chris Welch’s children.

Johnson contrasted his relationship-building approach to Paul Vallas, whose Republican supporters condemned Gov. J.B. Pritzker for his stay-at-home orders during the pandemic.

“You certainly can’t expect the governor to respond to someone who calls him a dictator,” he said.

Johnson could probably offer to babysit the Speaker’s kids for free anytime, anywhere and he still couldn’t pass that transaction tax. It’s folly. But, yeah, decent point about Vallas. A case can be made that New York City’s mayor hurt the Democratic Party last year by focusing on their soft on crime ways. Vallas could be much, much worse.

* Isabel’s roundup…

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 12:05 pm

Comments

  1. ===By far the most important trend is that even after several high-profile endorsements by Black leaders, Vallas’ support among Black voters has dropped by 13 points since the last poll taken March 6-9. Johnson’s Black support is up by 11 points===

    I think that’s why Vallas was so excited by the Bailey Facerbooking.

    Good thing Vallas has all of the Bailey folks?

    Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 12:12 pm

  2. You go on Jeanne Ives podcast and you are a lifelong Democrat. How many other lifelong Democrats did that? Guest Host for Dan Proft–same. He didn’t go on either show to challenge them.

    Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 12:16 pm

  3. Vallas is coming off more and more like the angry old man shaking his fist at clouds.

    Comment by Big Dipper Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 12:20 pm

  4. I value my health & that of my family too much to vote for a covid-denier or one who gives lip service to covid denial.
    It’s that simple.

    Comment by northsider (the original) Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 12:26 pm

  5. Vallas overperformed the polls in February I think because he does have the Trumpkin voters who are not likely voters in these polls.

    Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 12:32 pm

  6. Vallas goes with Proft, Ives, and AWAKE and tells us he’s always been a democrat? He’s shown his true self, when someone does that over and over you should believe him, not vote for him.

    Comment by Lincoln Lad Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 12:34 pm

  7. I would have a lot more respect for Vallas if he stopped trying to gaslight us and said something like “yes I did and said those things during the height of the pandemic, but with the benefit of time and perspective I realize the Governor took appropriate action yadda yadda.” That may be a lie too, but at least he wouldn’t be pretending those things never happened.

    Comment by Montrose Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 12:41 pm

  8. ===Vallas overperformed the polls in February===

    He wound up with 32.9 percent.

    M3 had him at 32.

    Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 12:41 pm

  9. Angry old white men are nothing new in politics.

    More and more people may be opting for a new generation of he leadership.

    Brandon is enjoying a surge in support with Vallas’ long political history and social media blurbs.

    Paul has some splaining to do.

    Comment by Loop Lady Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 12:45 pm

  10. ===when someone does that over and over you should believe him, not vote for him.===

    Yes, but a conundrum begins when you consider the alternative.

    Comment by Rogo Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 12:48 pm

  11. Paul Vallas has the chutzpah to accuse Pritzker and the state legislature of an unbalanced budget? He can bite me. He is the king of fiscal ruination.

    Comment by Ducky LaMoore Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 12:48 pm

  12. ===M3 had him at 32.===

    They had people who already voted in the sample too I believe. Others had Vallas leading but lower than 32%. I’m interested to see what M3 says.

    Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 12:48 pm

  13. The Johnson tax plan has been underreported so far. Its difficult to see it passing the legislature or City Council even.

    Comment by low level Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 12:50 pm

  14. The great city of Chicago - and I mean that sincerely - is at a crossroads. On the one hand, you have a candidate with a long history in politics with a history of making anti-progressive comments on social media / talk radio and playing to the conservative voices. But at the same time, he’s someone of substance, policy and experience. His opponent is a charismatic, talented young leader whose obvious talents are galvanizing support to make this a neck-and-neck race.

    To both of the candidates, Chicago’s at a crossroads facing serious challenges. It’s not enough to be a new candidate who speaks about inclusion but lacks serious policy prescriptions. Come on, Brandon, bring it. Bring more serious, credible policy prescriptions with some independence from CTU and you’ve got this race.

    Comment by This Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 12:57 pm

  15. This ^^ for the win. 1000%

    Comment by low level Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 1:02 pm

  16. I suspected the black support for Vallas would drop at some point because no matter how hard he and Joe Trippi try to hide his past Vallas is just the latest version of “the man”

    Comment by SouthSideGT Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 1:07 pm

  17. I don’t vote in the city election, so my opinion is worth less than yesterdays dog mess.

    However, in any mayor election the most important quality I look for is who will be able to listen to advice from all directions and make the best decision, and who will they be listening to.

    They can campaign on anything, and say anything, but at the end of the day whoever wins is going to have to do the actual job in office that will involve a multitude of moving parts and different voices - no matter what they campaigned on.

    Comment by TheInvisibleMan Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 1:07 pm

  18. Brandon thinks that “attitudes” have led to mass incarceration? How about crime, dude?

    Comment by Bad Goya Vitch Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 1:07 pm

  19. I am a downstater (interloper) to the Chicago mayoral race. As an outsider though, I am fascinated to see if Johnson’s TV ad (I’m the real Democrat) released yesterday will have any impact among blue collar workers over the next week. I suspect it could.

    I am also interested to see if Bailey’s “dark day” comment will be used to motivate minority voting. Dark day is a racist trope, intentional or otherwise, and the fact that Bailey probably will just leave that comment hanging out there, might make for good fodder that Johnson can use and indirectly attach to Bailey’s implicit endorsement of Vallas.

    Comment by H-W Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 1:08 pm

  20. I have been polling in Chicago for about 30 years. One of the most reliable and consistent things we observe in polls and in most but not all election results is that when a viable and credible black candidate is running vs. a non-black candidate, the black vote almost always goes for the black candidate by very wide margins. This typically is in the 75% to 85% range. It doesn’t happen every time, but Vallas’ electoral history and this polling show that trend is moving in the historical trend.

    Comment by Dave Fako / Fako Research & Strategies Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 1:11 pm

  21. If you want to compare apples with apples in terms of polling, Victory Research’s final poll just a day or two before the Mayoral election had Vallas at 26.8% and Johnson at 20.2%. The final results were Vallas 32.9% and Johnson 21.6%. So, Victory did in fact underestimate Vallas’ support by 6.1% but Johnson’s by only 1.4%. https://www.nbcchicago.com/chicago-mayoral-election-2023/chicago-mayoral-poll-shows-paul-vallas-expanding-lead-with-johnson-lightfoot-and-garcia-in-tight-race-for-2nd/3082508/

    Comment by Mayhen Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 1:18 pm

  22. There is a form of the word “dark” that is an explicit racial slur so to give that an innocent construction you would have to have just fallen off the turnip truck.

    Comment by Big Dipper Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 1:20 pm

  23. Man, relying on shy Trump voters *in Chicago* seems like a dicey strategy.

    Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 1:26 pm

  24. Id love to see the approval or disapproval of Richard M Daley in the city these days.

    Comment by low level Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 1:52 pm

  25. -anti-CTU rhetoric during the election is grounded in a perceived fear -

    The fear of the taxpayer… LAUSD is on strike now because they want a 30% pay increase (LA wants to give them 23%). I can’t imagine CTU asking for anything less than 30%, and Brandon does represent the teachers. Brandon could be help his pension while Mayor.

    Comment by Steve Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 1:53 pm

  26. Lots of good comments in this thread. Kudos.

    Still undecided. Having a hard time finding a reason TO vote for one of these guys. Just a lot of reasons to vote against one or the other.

    Comment by Original Rambler Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 1:55 pm

  27. The umbrella term “Crime” is everchanging… based on changes in societal attitudes…cannabis as one example…Miscegenation laws as another.

    Comment by Dotnonymous Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 1:55 pm

  28. ==Just a lot of reasons to vote against one or the other.==

    For me it is whom I believe is well-intentioned versus whom I believe is cynical.

    Comment by Big Dipper Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 1:57 pm

  29. “For me it is whom I believe is well-intentioned versus whom I believe is cynical.”

    Even if Johnson wouldn’t be able to enact all of his desired changes, this is what fundamentally makes me support him. I believe he’s interested in making Chicago a better place for most of its residents, and he will hire people of that mindset.

    Vallas seems more interested in the status quo, in the way things used to be, and in protecting business interests. I don’t see him fundamentally interested in improving the lives of the average Chicago resident.

    Comment by Techie Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 2:04 pm

  30. re that CCDW endorsement of Vallas, everyone knows that group is a shill and is not what it was for many years. Rikki just name that number.

    Comment by Amalia Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 2:05 pm

  31. Maybe I’ll vote for Johnson just to avoid listening to Pat Brady, IPI, and the rest of them act smug if Vallas wins.

    Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 2:06 pm

  32. ===Maybe I’ll vote for Johnson just to===

    I mean, it’s definitely an option lol

    Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 2:12 pm

  33. ==I would have a lot more respect for Vallas if he stopped trying to gaslight us and said something like “yes I did and said those things…==

    You can take this statement and replace Vallas with Johnson and it would still hold up, just need to change what things he is attempting to gaslight. It’s ridiculous and frankly shows complete contempt for the electorate. I don’t think either of these two would be the winner if we had ranked choice, but then again, that’s entirely the point in trying to deny that option.

    Comment by Anon324 Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 2:12 pm

  34. ===well-intentioned===

    I believe our current mayor was well-intentioned, too. But that will only get you so far in the mayor’s office. Eventually, problems need to be tackled. Otherwise, everyone suffers.

    Comment by Rogo Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 2:19 pm

  35. When Johnson ran and beat incumbent Richard Boykin for his Cook County Board seat, he used the exact same strategy of branding his opponent a DINO. If it worked on Danny Davis’ former chief of staff, why not try it again - and Vallas is helping him.

    Comment by levivotedforjudy Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 2:23 pm

  36. re: “dark” I am so old I remember Walter Jacobson interview Rev Jackson when Jackson was running for President. Jacobs said do you consider yourself the dark horse in this race? Jackson replied,”Walter I am the dark horse in every race I run”. That and Jackson’s rendition of Green Eggs and Ham I think were two funniest things he ever said or read

    Comment by DuPage Saint Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 2:32 pm

  37. latest $ list for Vallas has $10K from a Ricketts from Wilmette, woman, Cecelia. Trumpers.

    Comment by Amalia Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 3:06 pm

  38. ===I don’t vote in the city election, so my opinion is worth less than yesterdays dog mess.===

    I mean, you could pretend to live in Chicago to vote in the city election, the same way Paul Vallas pretended to live in Chicago to run in it …

    Comment by Suburban Mom Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 3:17 pm

  39. Ducky: Hey, I love your verbiage…I mean the Gov managed a huge public health crisis while working to improve IL bond ratings and was successful at both. Bite me indeed.

    Comment by Loop Lady Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 3:55 pm

  40. again re the CCDW endorsement of Vallas, you have to recognize the level of old school hack politics in this one. Some may think the group still is the progressive body it was back in the day. It is not. It is captured. And now Vallas has taken the imprimatur of something that once was good and he’s pretending to be that. It’s hack city.

    Comment by Amalia Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 4:05 pm

  41. == It’s hack city.==

    You have given him a name for his autobio.

    Comment by Big Dipper Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 4:16 pm

  42. @ Big Dipper, sadly true.

    Comment by Amalia Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 4:32 pm

  43. @Rogo, I wish I had a better choice but it is what it is. Do I vote for the naive but well intentioned, or the guy who has repeatedly said things I don’t agree with while meeting with those with the exact opposite of my beliefs (though he constantly tells us that’s not him). Let’s not forget the tweets too. I’ll take the naive and hope for the best rather than a misrepresenting candidate who thinks I’m too dumb to figure it out.

    Comment by Lincoln Lad Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 5:47 pm

  44. Per Nadig, Gardiner now has explicitly endorsed Vallas:

    “I will be voting for Paul Vallas,” Gardiner said, adding the former Chicago Public Schools chief executive officer has his endorsement for mayor. “He’ll best address” the city’s crime and other problems, Gardiner said.

    Comment by Big Dipper Thursday, Mar 23, 23 @ 9:25 pm

  45. ===Id love to see the approval or disapproval of Richard M Daley in the city these days.===

    People over 50? Who knows.

    The first thing I think of Daley now is the parking meter deal.

    Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 24, 23 @ 7:15 am

Add a comment

Sorry, comments are closed at this time.

Previous Post: Democratic Party of Illinois launches $300K direct mail, online ad program for school and library board races
Next Post: It’s just a bill


Last 10 posts:

more Posts (Archives)

WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.

powered by WordPress.