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* M3 Strategies…
As election results in the Chicago Mayor’s race are tallied, M3 Strategies’ Chief Pollster Matthew Podgorski is available to break down the election results, how the candidates’ performed, and what it means for the runoff.
Early election results show M3 Strategies’ was the best-performing polling firm in the Chicago Mayoral Election, with publicly released survey results that closely tracked the final outcomes.
M3 Strategies correctly predicted that Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson would make the runoff.
M3 Strategies was the first firm to show Paul Vallas leading and consistently showed the strength of his support. And the only firm to capture Vallas’ surge and show him receiving over 30% of the vote.M3 Strategies was the first firm to capture Congressman Garcia’s slide, showing his support drop by 8% points from December to January, and to capture Brandon Johnson’s surge, showing his support jump from 3% in December to 12% in January and 18% in February.
“The early election returns demonstrate the accuracy of the polling numbers we released throughout this cycle,” said Chief Pollster Matt Podgorski. “By mid-January, we could see Paul Vallas’ support was solidifying and that he would likely make the runoff. At the same time, our surveys captured Garcia’s support plummeting and Johnson surging.”
From their last poll…
Credit where credit is due.
* Chicagoland Chamber…
The following statement can be attributed to Jack Lavin, president & CEO, Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce:
“As the leading business organization in Chicago, our members have consistently stated their top priorities are public safety, skyrocketing property taxes, revitalizing tourism, and economic development that creates job opportunities in every neighborhood across Chicago. We strongly believe the next mayor should embrace these policies to help move Chicago forward. We cannot afford leadership that supports higher taxes and is not committed to keeping our businesses open and our streets safe.”
* IFT…
Illinois Federation of Teachers (IFT) President Dan Montgomery issued this statement today following Chicago’s mayoral election results.
“Brandon Johnson made history today as the first public school teacher and union organizer to run for mayor of the third largest city in the United States. I am so proud of our IFT brother and Cook County commissioner for running an inspiring campaign centered on progressive values and what our students, workers, and communities need to thrive.
“In five weeks, Chicagoans will make history too by electing a teacher and committed labor leader to the city’s highest office. The IFT is excited and proud to support Brandon in the runoff. He is the only candidate who has led multi-racial coalitions to defend neighborhood schools from privatization, reduce high-stakes standardized testing, and expand access to state funding. Brandon understands that every student – regardless of their race, income, or zip code – deserves a fully resourced, high-quality education, from PreK-16.
“Paul Vallas would be a disaster for public education, union workers, and Chicago residents. During Vallas’ tenure at CPS, he oversaw what would become a model for conservative education policy around the nation, which includes increased standardized testing and the privatization of public schools through charters and magnets. As CEO of the Philadelphia and New Orleans school districts, he decimated public education.
“Chicagoans now have a responsibility on April 4 to ensure that our city continues to move forward, not become governed by right-wing extremists. The choice is clear – progress and prosperity under Brandon Johnson or another devastating and divisive Bruce Rauner-like term under Paul Vallas.
“While Brandon Johnson inspires hope, Paul Vallas feeds into Chicagoans’ worst fears. Our city cannot afford another Bruce Rauner.
“Congratulations to Brandon Johnson and his team for running this successful campaign. And thank you to our members who worked to help Brandon in this historic race. We know they will redouble their efforts in the runoff to ensure Chicago elects Brandon Johnson, the transformative leader our city needs and deserves.”
* SEIU Healthcare…
Greg Kelley, President of SEIU Healthcare Illinois, issued the following statement responding to the election results in the Chicago Mayoral race:
Chicago needs a leader who brings us together and that leader is Brandon Johnson. Tonight voters made clear that they are ready for real change. Brandon Johnson represents a growing multiracial movement that wants a government that invests in people.
Brandon will tackle the challenges most important to Chicago. Brandon understands that investments in mental health services and good jobs are public safety investments. And that our communities need a working-family-friendly approach to inflation, affordable childcare, and housing families can afford to move into and stay in, without being priced out.
A vote for Brandon Johnson on April 4th is a vote for the voice of working families and for the resources our communities so desperately need to truly address the root causes of crime and economic instability and deliver lasting results. Brandon will fight for us all, no matter our race or what language we speak.
Brandon has been there with us through so many struggles, and we know he’ll keep fighting for us because he knows our communities and understands what we’re going through. Brandon doesn’t just talk about change. He delivers real policies and approaches that represent our best hope for a city in which we can all thrive.
We know that Brandon is better and he will deliver a safer, stronger Chicago.
* Get Stuff Done PAC…
The following statement can be attributed to Get Stuff Done PAC’s spokesman Ron Holmes:
“The voters of Chicago have sent a clear message that they want a city council that gets stuff done. Thanks to their efforts, 11 of Get Stuff Done PAC’s endorsed candidates will be sworn into the next city council but our work isn’t done. In the coming weeks, we’ll be partnering with neighbors in wards across the city to help them elect champions that will deliver on their behalf.”
Winning endorsed candidates:
Ald. Michelle Harris – 8th Ward
Ald. Anthony Beale – 9th Ward
Jeylu Gutierrez – 14th Ward
Ald. Stephanie Coleman – 16th Ward
Ald. Derrick Curtis – 18th Ward
Ald. Jason Ervin – 28th Ward
Ald. Chris Taliaferro - 29th Ward
Ald. Felix Cardona – 31st Ward
Ald. Emma Mitts – 37th Ward
Ald. Sam Nugent – 39th Ward
Ald. Deb Silverstein – 50th WardEndorsed candidates headed to a run-off (as of distribution):
Ald. Nicole Lee – 11th Ward
Ald. Monique Scott – 24th Ward
Ald. Gilbert Villegas – 36th WardDefeated candidate:
Nick Ward – 48th Ward
The PAC filed a D-1 with the state yesterday listing Michael Sacks as a sponsoring entity. Not mentioned in its press release was that the committee also plowed $80K into the 25th Ward race. They lost that one…
Candidate for alderman Byron Sigcho Lopez released the following statement after beating opponent Aida Flores in the 25th Ward election:
“Once again the 25th Ward beat the political machine together,” said Alderman Sigcho Lopez. “Billionaires thought they could buy this election but the people cannot be bought. The largest Latino ward in the City cannot be bought.
“We won today’s election by coming together and leading with the people – and we did it all without accepting political contributions from developers, large corporations, public utilities, polluters, or dark money PACs.
“Although the 25th Ward is still recovering from the trauma of a corrupt former alderman, our community-driven zoning committee and our public safety committee have helped us preserve Pilsen. Our small businesses are here, and we don’t have blocks of empty storefronts that plague so many other neighborhoods throughout our city.
“Luxury developers aren’t swooping in en masse and pushing out our immigrant families who’ve called our home for generations like they were just 4 years ago. The work we’ve done together means that we have a fully functioning public safety committee that liaises with CPD and does block-by-block violence prevention throughout the ward.
“I’m a leader who is doing exactly what I promised to do four years ago, and it’s the path I’ll take the next four years with the community by my side. When the community rises up together, we win.”
* SEIU Local 1…
Today, working families showed up to the ballot box to elect labor-endorsed candidates to the Chicago City Council. SEIU Local 1 members and leaders from across the city volunteered hundreds of hours canvassing and making phone calls for candidates who are fighting for economic justice.
“Chicagoans - from the 1st to the 50th Ward - showed out in record numbers to elect candidates that will give working families a voice in our City,” said SEIU Local 1 President Genie Kastrup. “Working families are the backbone of this city keeping our buildings clean, our businesses safe, our students fed and our airports functioning - now, essential workers will have a voice at City Council.
Local 1 members knocked on doors, made phone calls, flyered the streets, and educated others to ensure we elected candidates who are ready to fight for all working people - regardless of what you look like, where you live, where you came from, or who you love. This new City Council is ready to build a Chicago that works for all of us, and I am so proud of the Local 1 members that made it happen.
I look forward to working with these candidates to continue to win for working families all across our city.”
SEIU Local 1 candidates who won their race:
Ward 3, Pat Dowell
Ward 7, Greg Mitchell
Ward 8, Michelle Harris
Ward 12, Julia Ramirez
Ward 14, Jeylu Gutierrez
Ward 16, Stephanie Coleman
Ward 17, David Moore
Ward 19, Matt O’Shea
Ward 20, Jeanette Taylor
Ward 22, Mike Rodriguez
Ward 23, Silvana Tabares
Ward 25, Byron Sigcho-Lopez
Ward 26, Jesse Fuentes
Ward 28, Jason Ervin
Ward 29, Chris Taliferro
Ward 31, Felix Cardona
Ward 32, Scott Waguespack
Ward 33, Rossana Rodriguez-Sanchez
Ward 34, Bill Conway
Ward 35, Carlos Ramirez-Rosa
Ward 37, Emma Mitts
Ward 39, Samantha Nugent
Ward 40, Andre Vasquez
Ward 42, Brendan Reilly
Ward 47, Mathew Martin
Ward 49, Maria Hadden
Ward 50, Deb SilversteinThe following SEIU Local 1 endorsed candidates will be entering a run-off election that will take place on April 4, 2023:
Ward 1, Daniel La Spata
Ward 4, Lamont Robinson
Ward 5, Desmon Yancy
Ward 6, William Hall
Ward 10, Ana Guajardo
Ward 11, Nicole Lee
Ward 21, Ronnie Mosley
* Updated mayoral map from Frank Calabrese…
…Adding… Each dot represents 10 voters…
here are dot density maps for yesterday's mayoral race:https://t.co/2aNgjQhnjI pic.twitter.com/SPXrkC3Ec7
— fgregg@mastodon.social (@forestgregg) March 1, 2023
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Mar 1, 23 @ 10:46 am
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Block Club also had a similar map like Franks. The interesting thing is that they only show who got the most votes in a precinct but the other 70-80% of the votes are not taken into account. Just looking at the map you would think there is no way Lori would end up coming in 4th. Nor that Brandon would be in 2nd place.
Comment by Been There Wednesday, Mar 1, 23 @ 11:03 am
Map is deceptive because land does not vote. (you know, like counties….) the density in the lakefront triumphs over geography.
Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Mar 1, 23 @ 11:26 am
“they only show who got the most votes in a precinct but the other 70-80% of the votes are not taken into account”
I would pay as much as seven (7) American dollars to see similar maps showing the second and third place vote-getters.
– MrJM
Comment by MisterJayEm Wednesday, Mar 1, 23 @ 11:35 am
The runoff is going to be big money v. progressive unions. Big money can do business with Vallas, and Johnson is everything they hate.
Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Wednesday, Mar 1, 23 @ 11:40 am
My big question is - where does Johnson get money to compete? Will other unions that backed Lori or Chuy come around to him? Are there deep pocketed progressives that get behind Brandon? Does the money that is focused on LGBTQ+ issues shift to Brandon?
Comment by Montrose Wednesday, Mar 1, 23 @ 12:15 pm
>> My big question is - where does Johnson get money to compete?
For the airwaves, SEIU. But will they spend?
Comment by ZC Wednesday, Mar 1, 23 @ 12:35 pm
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Wednesday, Mar 1, 23 @ 11:40 am:
I don’t think Proud Boy Paul ranting and raving “CRT” is going to be good for business.
Comment by Google Is Your Friend Wednesday, Mar 1, 23 @ 1:20 pm
Been There
Click on the link in the Block Club article (under How Your Neighborhood voted). The map which comes up shows all votes cast by precinct.
Comment by no relation Wednesday, Mar 1, 23 @ 1:28 pm
So Vallas did well in high turnout wards and held his own in several unexpected areas.
Like it or not, I cant see how he does not become Mayor.
Comment by low level Wednesday, Mar 1, 23 @ 1:57 pm
Thanks no relation
Comment by Been There Wednesday, Mar 1, 23 @ 1:59 pm
===Like it or not===
Each election is different with different sets of variables.
Like how will the black and Hispanic wards look at this race, and given how Lightfoot did on the south and west sides, which of these two are going to get those voters.
Like it or not, it’s a whole new ball game.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 1, 23 @ 2:00 pm
Look at the number of registered voters per ward and turnout. I’m just through Wards 1-25. The turnout in Ward 19 alone is 8k plus more than the turnout in wards 15,16, and 22 combined, the 3 lowest vote turnout wards in the first 25 wards. Wards are drawn by population. Some are not eligible, many don’t register or vote. Dramatic differences.
Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Mar 1, 23 @ 2:13 pm
- Amalia -
How hot were the aldermanic races?
That’s just one variable, let alone no one beats 19 in turnout.
:)
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 1, 23 @ 2:16 pm
good point, OW, and those were not hotly contested and incumbents won. the bigger point is that the votes are never there in some places. no matter the contested contests. there are just not the registered voters and maybe those who could register. there is a built in imbalance.
Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Mar 1, 23 @ 2:27 pm
So does Pritzker dislike Vallas enough to write a check to Brandon?
Comment by Soccermom Wednesday, Mar 1, 23 @ 4:19 pm