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* Finally, a post about the Associated Press that isn’t negative. Hooray! AP Votecaster interviewed voters all over the country, including in Illinois. It’s not actually an “exit poll” because it was conducted over eight days…
AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, NPR, PBS NewsHour, Univision News, USA Today Network, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press. The survey was conducted for eight days, concluding as polls closed. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The survey is based on interviews with a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files. Participants were contacted by phone, mail and online, and had the opportunity to take the survey by phone or online. All surveys are subject to multiple sources of error, including sampling, question wording and order, and nonresponse.
* From the AP’s interactive tool…
The AP’s survey of national congressional races found that 43 percent of men backed Democratic candidates while 53 percent of men backed Republican candidates. That wasn’t the case here. Pritzker won men four years ago, too.
* The Question: After clicking here and looking at the results in the governor’s race and the US Senate contest, and after clicking here and looking at the congressional results, what stood out the most? Explain.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Nov 10, 22 @ 2:46 pm
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The fact that Bailey won non-college men but lost non-college women. Perhaps birth control and abortion?
Comment by Anyone Remember Thursday, Nov 10, 22 @ 2:59 pm
At first glance, what stands out to me are two trends.
First, older women appear to be becoming much more republican.
The Republican Party seems to have made slight inroads into the Black and Latino vote.
Comment by H-W Thursday, Nov 10, 22 @ 3:03 pm
Bailey won 57-39 among white non-college, 63-35 in small town/rural, 58-38 for those who think country is in wrong direction…and my favorite… of those who are “not at all confident” in the accuracy of the vote count, Bailey won 89-8 and 77-18 among those who are “not too confident” in the vote count. Pritzker won every other group (that I saw).
If it wasn’t for that darn Chicago, Bailey would have won hands down /s
Comment by Vote Quimby Thursday, Nov 10, 22 @ 3:04 pm
Lower turnout, despite all of the rhetoric and supposed hot-button issues. Both Pritzker and Bailey are on track to fall below the number of votes from each candidate 4 years ago. Bailey might be the lowest vote total for a Republican nominee since 2006
Comment by fs Thursday, Nov 10, 22 @ 3:05 pm
== Both Pritzker and Bailey are on track to fall below the number of votes from each candidate 4 years ago. ==
To clarify, I mean Pritzker won’t equal his total from 2018, and Bailey won’t get to Rauner’s 2018 total
Comment by fs Thursday, Nov 10, 22 @ 3:06 pm
Biggest surprise to me is the 35% of the electorate that’s only “somewhat” confident in vote count accuracy splitting evenly in both races. I’m sure everyone has their own definition of “somewhat,” but I would’ve thought anyone expressing any skepticism would skew Republican.
Comment by vern Thursday, Nov 10, 22 @ 3:15 pm
On quick glance, a 60/40 minimum divide between Urban and Rural/Small Community. Pretty much reflects what happened in my area for turnout and vote totals. The local paper did a “We Won…Locally” piece… sigh.
https://ildewitt.pollresults.net/
https://theclintonjournal.com/article/dewitt-county-voters-choose-republicans-across-the-board
Comment by Anonn221 Thursday, Nov 10, 22 @ 3:20 pm
Check that. Older women is not a category. My brain is jumbled today, after just finishing an assessment report. I hope I got the assessment report right, before the jumbling started.
But the race effects, while small, are noteworthy.
NORC is a solid pollster.
Comment by H-W Thursday, Nov 10, 22 @ 3:21 pm
==I mean Pritzker won’t equal his total from 2018, and Bailey won’t get to Rauner’s 2018 total ==
2018 was Trump’s midterm, I think that drove turnout more than anything else.
Comment by supplied_demand Thursday, Nov 10, 22 @ 3:22 pm
Interesting that Duckworth and Salvi split the white vote evenly, yet JB won the white vote by several percentage points.
Comment by Jibba Thursday, Nov 10, 22 @ 3:32 pm
Pritzker got 8% of the vote of those who aren’t at all confident in the accuracy of vote counting. So there is some Democratic support by election deniers.
Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Nov 10, 22 @ 3:48 pm
Bailey was the darling for the old, white, male, non-college…rural… “falling behind” voter.
Your in-law uncle, in other words.
The takeaway to bringing this up?
Educated, persons of color, in suburban Illinois… that’s where the votes are… that’s where the VOTES are…
Think on this, this “angry” thing too…
You have 51% in the holding steady… for Dems…
There’s no sense that there are folks that see things other than being aggrieved.
There’s a victimhood, not like is mocked here when it comes up, there’s a sense that these voters Bailey and the GOP have that don’t see… the Reagan “new morning in America”
The GOP sows the anger, they don’t see the good that could be… unless it’s hurting “those not like us”.
Now…
Could it be that rural America is dying, and those voters think it’s a personal reason to aggrieved?
Rural folks should ask their now educated children that never come back… because of jobs and opportunities?
“My kids all left… someone is to blame”
Blame
The GOP should be grateful, no snark, that Bailey was the nominee
These numbers are your WORST.
How you decide to get educated suburban persons of color young men and women… good luck… but embracing the worst elements in American democracy ain’t gonna bring anybody other than old white non-college men?
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Nov 10, 22 @ 3:59 pm
==Could it be that rural America is dying, and those voters think it’s a personal reason to aggrieved?==
Ding, ding. It’s a sad but true fact… and someone must be blamed, because it’s not the fault of those who chose to stay and forbid any type of progress to be made.
Comment by Vote Quimby Thursday, Nov 10, 22 @ 4:11 pm
@ Vote Quimby
I see this “Hollowing Out of the Middle” (a great book by the way) as a second wave effect of the corporate takeover of farming that took place in the 1980s.
Agribusiness began this process by patenting seeds and monopolizing most inputs. WHen small family farms could no longer hold back seed, and could not barter for prices, the Middle began collapsing. This is symbolized by the first Farm Aid in Champaign-Urbana.
A generation later, their children earned college degrees and started moving on. A few families were able to leverage loans so as to increase their landholdings, but most families left.
A second generation removed now, it requires 10 times the land investment just to stay afloat, and typically a few brothers and sisters working that amount of land. Today, farm support work have largely dried up as well.
I was told a while back that the square mile of land I live on used to have dozens of families surrounding it. I was told there was a little “one-room school on the corner several decades ago.
Now, there is no one but my family, no trees either. Just crops and outbuildings (and recently added wind turbines).
Corporate farming caused this continuing saga, not “Chicago Democrats.” However, there is a real trend of investors from the North buying up land down here, and leasing it out to the few remaining farm families to plant and harvest in order to hold on to what little they have left.
Comment by H-W Thursday, Nov 10, 22 @ 4:25 pm
The number of Asians voting Democratic was outstanding. More than Hispanics. More than whites.
Comment by Emily Booth Thursday, Nov 10, 22 @ 7:19 pm