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* Polling memo…
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Global Strategy Group
DATE: October 25, 2022
RE: NEW POLL: Making Significant Gains Since Summer, Rochford Even Better Positioned to WinSurvey results from Global Strategy Group’s recent research show an electorate focused on electing a candidate who is highly qualified and will protect abortion rights in our state’s highest court – and that candidate is Democrat Elizabeth Rochford. With voters getting to know her in the last few months, Rochford now enjoys positive personal ratings and a 6-point lead against Republican Mark Curran, of whom voters now have mixed opinions. Still, there is room to consolidate key voting blocs further in the next two weeks. And with so many voters unfamiliar with the candidates, the race is still wide open. Should Rochford be able to stay in front of voters, push back on misleading attacks, and communicate her experience and support from pro-choice groups, she has a path to victory. Takeaways from a survey of 500 likely 2022 generical election voters are as follows.
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
• After learning more about her this fall, voters like and support Elizabeth Rochford. While there is still work to do to educate voters on the candidates for Illinois Supreme Court Justice, Rochford has significantly increased her name ID so that now 41% of voters can rate her (up from less than a third in August). Those voters who know her like her by a 7-point margin (24% favorable/17% unfavorable). Still, more than half of the electorate needs to learn about Rochford’s background and qualifications.
• While Mark Curran remains the better-known candidate, voters have mixed opinions. Over half of voters are familiar with Curran. But given that a plurality of the electorate is hearing something negative about him (33% positive/39% negative), his ratings have now weakened to a draw (27% favorable/27% unfavorable).
• As a result of communications on behalf of Rochford up to this point, she now leads Curran just under 50%. Voters now choose Rochford over Curran by a 6-point margin – Rochford 49%/Curran 43%. Between our first poll in August and now, Rochford has successfully consolidated key groups like Democrats, especially women Democrats; women over 55; college women; and voters in Lake County.
ABOUT THIS RESEARCH
Global Strategy Group conducted a survey of 500 likely 2022 general election voters in Illinois Supreme Court District 2 between October 18 and October 23, 2022. Interviews were conducted via live telephone as well as a text invitation to a web-based survey. Care has been taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the population of likely 202 2 general election voters are properly represented.
…Adding… Press release…
Justice Mary Jane Theis was selected for the office of Chief Justice of the Illinois Supreme Court at the Court’s November 2022 Term. She will serve a three-year term commencing today, October 26, 2022, succeeding Anne M. Burke, whose tenure as Chief Justice ended on Oct. 25, 2022.
Justice Theis will be the fourth woman to serve as Chief Justice following the late Justice Mary Ann McMorrow, Justice Rita B. Garman, and Justice Burke. She will be the 122nd Chief Justice in Illinois history.
“I would like to thank my colleagues for giving me this opportunity to serve the people of Illinois as Chief Justice. I also would like to congratulate Justice Burke for her successful term as Chief and her leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic,” Justice Theis said. “I look forward to working with the bench, bar and community at large to further the Court’s mission of providing access to equal justice, ensuring judicial integrity and upholding the rule of law. Our goal continues to be increasing public trust and confidence in the courts.”
As Chief Justice, Justice Theis will serve as the chief administrative officer of the Supreme Court, which is constitutionally vested with general administrative and supervisory authority over the more than 900 judges in the statewide judicial system.
Among other duties, the Chief Justice selects the items to be placed on the Supreme Court’s agenda for the Court’s consideration during its constitutionally-mandated five terms each year; supervises all appointments to Supreme Court committees, serves as chairperson of the Executive Committee of the constitutionally-mandated Illinois Judicial Conference and presents the Court’s annual budget request to the General Assembly.
…Adding… ILGOP…
With Election Day drawing near, Democrat Elizabeth Rochford’s campaign for Illinois Supreme Court is showing signs of desperation. This morning, Rochford’s campaign released a polling memo in an attempt to signal to her Madigan Machine donors and backers that she’s in desperate need of additional millions.
Rochford’s call for help comes even after she’s raised $3.5 million for her campaign, and the so-called “All for Justice” group has raised nearly $6.8 million, spending much of it on Rochford. Illinois Republican Party Executive Director Shaun McCabe released the following statement in response:
“Elizabeth Rochford and her Madigan Machine allies are desperate, even after spending millions of dollars on her failing campaign. Rochford knows if voters learn about her Machine ties and record, she will lose her election and the Madigan Machine will lose a vote on the Supreme Court. Mark Curran is in a strong position to win because he’s an independent outsider with extensive law enforcement experience who will uphold the rule of law, not the rule of Madigan.”
* More…
* 2 Illinois Supreme Court Races to Decide Partisan Makeup of State’s Highest Court
* Illinois Supreme Court seat races could have far-reaching consequences
* Heated race for Illinois Supreme Court
* Two Illinois Supreme Court races could have major impact on abortion, gun rights, other key issues
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 9:33 am
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The key takeaway: “[W]ith so many voters unfamiliar with the candidates, the race is still wide open.”
Talk to your friends and neighbors about these critical Supreme Court races, people.
– MrJM
Comment by MisterJayEm Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 9:41 am
If Rochford is only up 6 in her own internals - imagine how much Burke is winning by.
Comment by Hahaha Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 9:53 am
It’s astonishing that Curran’s unfavorables aren’t higher considering the barrage of ads against him so far (and the lack of defense from the party).
Comment by Torco Sign Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 10:04 am
Congratulations to Mary Jane Theis as the new Chief Justice. She is a wonderful person with an astute legal mind. Best of luck on her three-year term.
Comment by Steve Rogers Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 10:16 am
Curran is pushing the he’s tough on crime and she doesn’t care about crime line. He says about the woman whose father was a police offer. should not be a close race considering Rochford’s excellent qualifications. shows you just how desperate for power some people are.
Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 10:16 am
==Should Rochford be able to stay in front of voters, push back on misleading attacks, and communicate her experience and support from pro-choice groups, she has a path to victory.==
Translation: We need money or we’re going to lose.
Comment by Suburban Guy Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 10:17 am
Whoa. Why would they release this?
Comment by SWSider Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 10:23 am
These two races were never given for the Democrats. Given that Rochford started at zero and is now topping him by six in such an incredibly low information race is good news, but with all these negative ads popping up and more to come, I hope people are quickly cutting a few more big checks for Rochford, like today.
Comment by Shytown Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 10:25 am
Only up 6? Maybe All for Justice needs to run millions of dollars worth of more ads accusing Curran of wanting to get on the bench so he can throw all women and doctors in jail.
It’s a totally believable argument.
Comment by JB13 Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 10:49 am
===should not be a close race considering Rochford’s excellent qualifications===
Same exact thing was said in the primary about Judge Shanes…but here we are.
Comment by Nadigam Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 10:55 am
===throw all women and doctors in jail.
It’s a totally believable argument.===
Your own hyperbole of “all” tries to negate the danger to women’s health the pro-life stances that jurist candidates flaunted in primaries that now are missing or “ignored” by the same candidates, now nominees.
What’s next, it’s fine if local politicians and have a say in women’s health too… along with judges…
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 10:59 am
“so he can throw all women and doctors in jail.”
It’ll just be the ones seeking or providing abortion services, amirite?
– MrJM
Comment by MisterJayEm Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 11:00 am
The thought of Curran on our Supreme Court is making me write another check for Rochford. Just amazing to me she’s not up 26 given their respective qualifications. SMH
Comment by Original Rambler Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 11:19 am
And on another article there was a comment saying threats to abortion in IL are nonexistent…
Comment by The Velvet Frog Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 11:36 am
Rochford leading by 6 is good news in such an important race - Curran had high name ID from being Lake County Sheriff and Rochford most likely started with almost zero. Rochford’s camp and those supporting her are going to need the $$$ to make sure this lead remains. It’s going to come down to the wire.
Comment by coop Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 12:16 pm
You’re right to be concerned about Rochford possibly losing but wrong to spin. “Starting from zero”? It’s a poll two weeks before the election! She was in a primary, millions have been dumped into the race, including TV ads, and voting is already underway. It’s not 2021–where she started is no longer relevant.
Comment by Torco Sign Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 1:09 pm
Looks like that quote is from 2012. What’s your point?
Comment by The Velvet Frog Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 2:10 pm
Torco a campaign is not a moment in time. Only election day is. This is a down ballot low info race. It would take millions more to move this race further apart than it is. Rochford’s got the momentum headed into nov 8 which is where she needs to be and is at the 49% threshold. The mo is not with Curran. But with all the IE money pouring in I would be worried as it can cut into her lead and stop the mo. And this race is all about the paid messaging battle.
Comment by Shytown Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 2:13 pm
===should not be a close race considering Rochford’s excellent qualifications===
The 2nd district supported Pritzker by just two points while Rauner lost by 16 points overall. It was always going to be a close race IMO.
Comment by Mike Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 10:10 pm