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The GOP turned out to not only look confused and shortsighted, but also outfoxed. By running millions of dollars in ads that not only blasted Irvin but spurred on the far right by labeling Bailey “too conservative for Illinois,” Pritzker, and the Democratic Governors Association, took out the competition before there was even a main event. How the Dems so effectively meddled in this campaign, one Irvin supporter told me, will be discussed and written about for years to come.
“Democrats are like pickpockets,” he said. “And Republicans are like confused tourists asking for directions while they get their pockets picked.”
At last check, Bailey was getting 57.7 percent of the Republican vote. Man, if that’s how top Repubs feel about their own voters, it’s no wonder there was such a revolt on Tuesday.
…Adding… A valid point from the comment section…
Was Pritzker supposed to let Irvin run $50 million in ads attacking him for four months without any response? That would’ve been political malpractice and apparently, they learned to get out of the gate quickly after the fair tax debacle
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 9:47 am
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“No fair. Our voters fell for their shenanigans instead of our shenanigans.”
Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 9:51 am
Here’s a reality folks are not getting.
Bailey isn’t just a Republican, Bailey IS the Republican base.
Pritzker and the DGA tapped Congo the old, angry, white voters, many in rural Illinois, and they want the party now.
This is not the party of jbt, Thompson, Edgar, Jim or George, Rutherford…
That 57% in a 6-way primary… that IS the base.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 9:52 am
no_its_the_children_who_are_wrong.jpeg
Comment by The Opinions Bureau Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 9:53 am
Irvin dealt a fatal blow to his own campaign by failing to acknowledge who he had voted for in past elections, failing to admit he only voted in one GOP Primary in the past decade, and dodging questions about his abortion position. $50 million in ads couldn’t cover those liabilities.
Comment by Soapbox Derby Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 9:53 am
There are actual Republican Party leaders in Illinois? If There were, they would have found and supported a candidate that could appease the Trump followers without turning off the rest of the state’s voters. A tiny needle to thread for sure, but to just lie back and let a few people with cash decide who to run ( Irvin) was a risky decision that will likely hurt all down ballot R’s come November
Comment by Roadiepig Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 9:55 am
=== Irvin dealt a fatal blow to his own campaign by failing to acknowledge who he had voted for in past elections===
You voted in a Dem primary.
Physician heal thyself, LOL
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 9:55 am
I don’t get the Republican’s complaints about the DGA’s commercials that said Bailey is too conservative for ILlinois. How is that any different from Operation Chaos and the 2008 democratic primary? Also, if the shoe was on the other foot the Republicans would do the same thing.
Comment by Guzzlepot Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:00 am
=How the Dems so effectively meddled in this campaign, one Irvin supporter told me, will be discussed and written about for years to come.=
Maybe by Richard Irvin. But for the rest of us, it will go down as a spectacular failure by the candidate and the campaign. This was not a close race. Far from it. The only ones surprised by the outcome were those that presumed Irvin’s victory was a forgone conclusion. And from where I sit that looks to be no more than 15% of the Republican voters.
Comment by Pundent Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:02 am
Last year I attended a July 4th parade where there were dozens upon dozens of county Republicans walking in Darren Bailey shirts. Not a thing for any other GOP statewide candidate other than Dan Brady (the parade was in his Statehouse district).
The GOP bigwigs who want to pretend JB Pritzker tricked their voters into supporting Darren Bailey not only are denying their voters any agency over their choice, but refusing to give Darren Bailey any credit for having worked longer and harder than any of the other GOP candidates to build a grassroots network of support.
Of course we already knew what contempt the Irvin people had for Illinois GOP voters by the dumb attacks on Bailey that he was an Obama-Biden guy, which totally destroyed any credibility for any future campaign messages. They did the same thing in the Davis-Miller race in accusing Mary Miller of being a member of the Squad which no one could possibly believe.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:02 am
==How the Dems so effectively meddled in this campaign, one Irvin supporter told me, will be discussed and written about for years to come==
No, it won’t, because McCaskill gets credited with developing the strategy first. The only thing that will be “written about for years to come” in this is the narrative on how Griff blew $50 million on a bad candidate with a terrible campaign strategy, then got so mad about it that he took his ball and went home to Florida before votes were even cast.
Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:02 am
This election cycle was the most poorly managed election by IL Dems in my lifetime and my parents lifetime. It was embarrassing how bad things were managed and run….and yet, the ILGOP still made us look good. ILGOP cannot figure out how run campaigns for the life of themselves. Only thing more embarrassing than how DPI operated this cycle was how the GOP did.
Comment by ;) Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:03 am
= How is that any different from Operation Chaos and the 2008 democratic primary? Also, if the shoe was on the other foot the Republicans would do the same thing.=
Yep. This all day.
The whole “meddling” bit is nothing but the gop upset that their tactics were co opted by the democrats.
In my lifetime the gop meddling and dirty tricks are well documents going back to the Nixon re-election campaign.
Comment by JS Mill Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:06 am
Do the “traditional” IL GOP types not watch Fox News or listen to talk radio? Do they not see the message their voters are ceaselessly receiving? The only people that got fooled here are Grif and the rest of the Irvin supporters.
Comment by Excitable Boy Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:07 am
=== Bailey IS the Republican base. ===
The base that is willing to do anything, regardless of democratic norms and principles, to defeat their enemies and remake the country into their own nostalgic image.
Comment by Norseman Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:09 am
You voted for Biden.
You probably haven’t voted for the Republican governor candidate in a General since 2006.
Pot meet kettle.
Comment by Soapbox Derby Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:10 am
-Last year I attended a July 4th parade where there were dozens upon dozens of county Republicans walking in Darren Bailey shirts.-
This is it. I am paraphrasing but I recall hearing someone from the Irvin camp election night bragging that they had like 200 or so volunteers and their people knocked on 150K doors starting in late April. I was struck that it seemed like nothing to brag about, and kind of a weak ground effort for a top of the ticket statewide race.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:11 am
Move along, people. Take it offline or whatever, but this off topic bickering needs to end.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:11 am
Heard Candidate Bailey on a radio show where he referred to himself as a “Moderate”
Now that is some fast stepping by the Republican nominee.
Comment by Back to the Future Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:12 am
The bootstraps party crying foul because someone played the game better than they.
The party of Reagan reduced to whiners and whack jobs.
Comment by Lost in Shawnee Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:12 am
== How the Dems so effectively meddled in this campaign, one Irvin supporter told me, will be discussed and written about for years to come ==
It seems pretty simple to me. Irvin never had a significant lead. His poll numbers hovered around 20% or less, and never grew. The Governor and the DGA looked at the numbers, saw about 40% undecided, and said, lets get those people engaged.
It also helped that Bailey courted Trump, and that Irvin didn’t address legitimate questions very well.
This is not rocket science, Tribune people. It is pretty simple actually. Irvin lost any chance he might of had, and Bailey did what he does best - rage against the establishment, and he got the Court Jester to come to Quincy.
All Bailey needs to do now is pray the the Jester doesn’t get in trouble with the DOJ.
Comment by H-W Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:13 am
In 2018 Rauner got 372,000 primary votes.
In 2022 Bailey got 450,000 primary votes.
He is the Republican Party in Illinois.
No one tricked anyone into voting for anybody. The GOP base gladly and loudly went to the polls to back the people who represent them the best.
Comment by Cool Papa Bell Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:13 am
===In my lifetime the gop meddling and dirty tricks are well documents going back to the Nixon re-election campaign===
It happened to Porter McNeil when he ran for the IL House. HGOPs took him out in the Dem primary.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:13 am
If Bailey isn’t the base, then how can 57% consciously be this wrong?
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:15 am
=How is that any different=
Because Republicans are awesome at playing the victim. And gaslighting.
Comment by Steve Rogers Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:16 am
I would consider the source of the column, Denise has been a constant booster of Aurora and all things tied to Aurora since she has been at the Beacon. I think her perspective may also be impacted by the fact that all sorts of stuff came out about Irvin that some would argue that the ‘local’ paper should have been aware of. But the Beacon hasn’t pushed too hard against municipal leadership for a long time.
The former Alderman who I think this quote comes from (not 100% sure who is actually quoted) is a former neighbor, but he hasn’t been an Alderman in quite some time. Not sure why she chose him, heck there are a dozen other folks off the top of my head in Aurora who could have offered a more ‘recent’ perspective.
Not saying this isn’t the attitude of some Republicans (or even quite a few), but the article is written from a ‘local man got jerked over’ perspective IMHO.
Comment by OneMan Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:17 am
What will be talked about is over $400 a vote for a failure
Comment by Rabid Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:17 am
===How the Dems so effectively meddled in this campaign, one Irvin supporter told me, will be discussed and written about for years to come===
Nah. First, it’s been done. Second, Bailey easily cleared 50% and I don’t think any amount of Democratic advertising would get a candidate more than 50% in a Republican primary on its own. Bailey is the base.
Finally, I ask this. Was Pritzker supposed to let Irvin run $50 million in ads attacking him for four months without any response? That would’ve been political malpractice and apparently, they learned to get out of the gate quickly after the fair tax debacle
Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:18 am
== Move along, people. Take it offline or whatever, but this off topic bickering needs to end. ==
Sorry boss. Yes. That is a great quote. /s
Comment by H-W Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:19 am
Because JB
Comment by Rabid Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:21 am
OneMan, I would defer on the local angle. However, that is not just a local opinion.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:22 am
My apologies. I was wrong and in the wrong.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:23 am
Rauner was airing a TV or radio ad or two against Madigan deep into his budget sabotage and war on unions, like two years in. Maybe the pearl clutching should not be as tight.
Raunerites got OODA looped. It looks like the huge Fair Tax failure lesson got through. Griffin’s failure is so much bigger than even that.
Comment by Grandson of Man Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:24 am
=== The GOP turned out to not only look confused and shortsighted, but also outfoxed. ===
I dunno, seems to me that the GOP is what the primary voters vote it to be. Maybe some people who think of themselves as “the party” got outfoxed, but the actual party got what it asked for. That includes the national leader of the party.
Republicans should think long and hard about why this worked for Pritzker and many other Democrats, but the reverse has never happened. Maybe a 15-year plan to radicalize the base, reduce their media literacy, and alienate moderates wasn’t the best way to get electable nominees in blue states. Pritzker certainly took advantage of the situation, but Republicans had plenty of opportunities to immunize their voters to this type of meddling. Instead, they wanted a party of Baileys. That’s what they got.
Comment by vern Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:29 am
To borrow and paraphrase Jon Stewart, looks like maybe the Dems finally figured out not to bring NPR tote bags to a knife fight.
Comment by workingfromhome Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:31 am
GOP Sour grapes when Dems don’t use kid gloves.
Comment by ChicagoVinny Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:34 am
===Raunerites got OODA looped===
heh
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:36 am
I would argue that the race was ceded to Bailey long before Irvin through his hat in the ring.
When Bailey became a pro-Covid crusader Durkin and McConchie sat by and helplessly watched. They said little if anything. Same holds true with the Eastern Bloc rhetoric on seceding and referring to Chicago as a hellhole. These weren’t just Bailey messages, they became the parties message. And no one in the party rose to the occasion to denounce any of it. And it took hold. The Irvin campaign, and Republican establishment, is in denial if they can’t see how this all came to be. If anything JB may have overreacted a bit. With the margin of victory Bailey enjoyed, I’m not so sure that he needed the help.
Comment by Pundent Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:40 am
“Man, if that’s how top Repubs feel about their own voters”
They barely have any respect for their voters and see primaries as a burden. I’m wondering if the Raunerites even bother sticking around anymore after Tuesday.
Comment by NIU Grad Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:42 am
OW is correct in his observations about the GOP base. They are like Bailey and most of them like Trump. They want to outlaw abortion and will not compromise on their gun rights. Bailey will carry a lot of those sparsely populated rural counties. The abortion message will not play well with women in the populous collar counties. Bailey can’t win a statewide election against a guy with great financial resources who also has done a good job in improving Illinois’s financial standing.
Comment by The Dude Abides Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:46 am
Bailey may have needed Trump’s endorsement in April, but he didn’t need it days before the Primary when he was firmly ahead.
Now JB won’t say Bailey’s name without including Trump’s in the same sentence, and a family inheritance to say it in non-stop ads till November. Trump and abortion will be the only talking points.
Comment by Soapbox Derby Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:49 am
Bailey is already making the move to the false center. In the DH today he is claiming to never have been anti-mask or anti-vaccine, but rather pro-Choice on what to do with our bodies. (my paraphrasing)
Comment by walker Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:51 am
Can someone please articulate just who the “Republican establishment” is supposed to be? All the references to Thompson and Edgar are meaningless now. Are we to believe there are still guys at the country club picking candidates over drinks and cigars?
Was there an “establishment” candidate in the primary? Or was it just one billionaire versus another?
Comment by Friendly Bob Adams Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:56 am
===Was there an “establishment” candidate in the primary?===
Darren Bailey.
The voters christened this change. It only became official then.
The likes of Durkin are the fringe.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 10:58 am
The other thing that occurs to me about this quote is how much Republicans have bought into their talking points about totally lacking agency. In the alternate universe of Republican rhetoric, Democrats are the only political actors who make choices, and Republicans (especially base voters) are wild animals who only react to Democratic actions.
The way the Deb Conroy story played out is a perfect example. Welch asked Durkin to help end the death threats, and Durkin responded by demanding legislative concessions. His position was that Republicans didn’t have the power to tamp down the heat, and the only thing that would is if Democrats voluntarily turned legislative power over to the Republican minority. I always assumed this was dishonest rhetoric, but maybe they really have bought into this worldview where Republicans never make their own choices.
Comment by vern Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 11:05 am
There’s a pretty substantial difference between running response ads vs. running ads in support of Bailey, but whatever.
The bottom line to me is the only Republican who objected to the tactic was Irvin. If Bailey or Sullivan or others also decried Pritzker meddling in the primary maybe more GOP voters would have discounted in them. But in the end, the Uihlein/JB effort got Bailey nominated.
It is quite amazing that 57% of GOP voters went with the guy JB wanted them to go with. Totally understand now how Russian facebook posters were able to influence voters in 2016.
Comment by Liability Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 11:11 am
=Trump and abortion will be the only talking points.=
Oh I think there will be a lot more than that (see the post on biblical marriage). Pritzker and the Dems will use this race to portray the ILGOP as out of touch with the majority of Illinois voters on a variety of issues. Abortion and Trump are a given. But there’s a whole bunch of other things that Bailey has said and done that are worth repeating. And keep in mind that you have Tom DeVore on the ticket as well. That means that we’ll be hearing more about Covid and how Pritzker got it all wrong. And JB’s response on that topic has generally been viewed as a positive.
Comment by Pundent Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 11:12 am
This…
=Bailey is the base.=
Full stop.
57% in the primary isn’t an anomaly. It is mainstream for the party.
=The voters christened this change. It only became official then.=
Yep. Ives tried, Bailey made it happen.
Bailey has no motivation to move to the center, he and his team are euphoric. I doubt in their wildest dreams they thought they would cross over the 50% line.
My only hope is that Pritzker goes all out. I love the NPR bag quote, it is so apt and exactly how team Pritzker must go forward. No holds barred, no lead is safe.
Comment by JS Mill Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 11:21 am
Something makes me believe Bailey’s campaign began as a dare at his local grain elevator.
Bailey understood the GOP base better than Griffin/Irvin. Bailey went all in on identifying with Trump, and it paid off.
As for the DGA’s ads, this is the big leagues. What’s fair and unfair are hardly considerations by either side.
If Bailey tries to rebrand himself as a moderate, Pritzker’s got enough Bailey quotes to set the record straight on that.
Comment by Streator Curmudgeon Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 11:28 am
Per the usual GOP primary, they do the opo research work for their Fall opponent. Look for previously vacant HDem ballots spots to get filled in soon.
Comment by NorthsideNoMore Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 11:41 am
==OneMan, I would defer on the local angle. However, that is not just a local opinion. ==
Totally fair (it is your blog), but wanted to provide some context.
Also even locally based on my observations over the last few years, the local GOP is more Baley than Irvin. Actually, the shift began over a decade ago.
Comment by OneMan Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 12:15 pm
Fair tax debacle…fool me once…shame on Griffin…fool me twice…shame on JB.
Fire with fire.
Comment by Dotnonymous Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 12:16 pm
The problem with this that makes me nervous is if this is a wave year it is likely that some crazy campaigns people would consider doomed will squeek out a win. If the IL Gov’s race happens to be that crazy campaign man I’d of preferred Irvin over Cuckoo Bailey. Just saying.
Comment by Mason born Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 12:18 pm
“My apologies. I was wrong and in the wrong.”
Wait? What? The sage of Oswego was wrong?
Comment by Huh? Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 12:24 pm
- Huh? -
I’m wrong quite a bit. I’ll also (try to) be the first to admit it.
I’m more parsley than sage, and some say more paprika, but I don’t see that.
To the post,
The party’s next step will be that either Tracy embraces where that 57% want to go, or Proft, Bailey, Ives, et al. decide to fully take the wheel and maybe not so politely.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 12:27 pm
=If the IL Gov’s race happens to be that crazy campaign man I’d of preferred Irvin over Cuckoo Bailey. Just saying.=
The answer for Pritzker is simple. Take nothing for granted. Run a campaign that is every bit as good or better than your ran in 2018. And you can now leverage the accomplishments you’ve had in office. But leave nothing to chance. If the primary is any indication, my guess is that he won’t.
Comment by Pundent Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 12:30 pm
Question: How much will Griffin donate to Bailey’s General Election campaign.
Answer: Zero.
Comment by Soapbox Derby Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 12:45 pm
=The answer for Pritzker is simple. Take nothing for granted. Run a campaign that is every bit as good or better than your ran in 2018. And you can now leverage the accomplishments you’ve had in office. But leave nothing to chance. If the primary is any indication, my guess is that he won’t.=
Please dear lord JB, hit the gas and do not let up.
Quoting Alec Baldwin in Glengarry Glen Ross- “ABC- A-Always B-Be C-Closing”
Comment by JS Mill Friday, Jul 1, 22 @ 1:32 pm