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* From the Jesse Sullivan campaign’s original pitch deck…
STRATEGIC IMPERATIVE: FUNDING TO BECOME THE EARLY FRONTRUNNER
• Provides instant credibility to a political newcomer, while raising name ID
• Unlocks the next round of large Chicago donors who will back the leading candidate
• Dissuades new entrants by establishing a dominant position
• Avoids a long primary that forces candidates to take more extreme positions that leave them unelectable in the general
Yeah, well, that didn’t happen.
And Sullivan has moved far to the right as Irvin took over the slot he hoped for. But now with Irvin fading in the polls and pulling his Downstate ads, can Sullivan make a move?
* Lately, Sullivan has been trying to poach Darren Bailey’s voters. Let’s look at some ads. Here he says “schools are the “front lines in this battle against the left’s woke agenda”…
Script…
Today, Illinois schools are the front lines in this battle against the left’s woke agenda. Our children aren’t allowed to say prayers at school, yet boys are allowed to play in girls’ sports. Our students are failing the basics, but they’re teaching sexuality to second graders. It’s crazy. As a parent, it is my right to have a say in my child’s education. As governor, I’m going to push back against the left injecting their ideology into our curriculum. And bring excellence back to our schools.
* This one features his kids…
* This abortion ad was filmed in a church…
Script…
in 2004, I road a bus to March for Life. Today, my wife and I are foster parents because we try to live our pro-life values. But Governor Pritzker, he celebrates a culture of abortion over a culture of life, using our tax dollars to turn Illinois into the abortion capital of the Midwest. That’s wrong. I’m Jesse Sullivan. I will never apologize for my faith. And I will always fight for life.
* The Question: Considering all that’s happened this week, what’s Jesse Sullivan’s best path forward?
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:05 pm
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Repentance.
Comment by AlfondoGonz Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:09 pm
His best path forward is to try and woo voters who were going to vote for Richard Irvin. If he can pull them, along with ads like these (which the abortion add blew his chances with me), he might be able to pull enough voters in time to upset Bailey. His biggest opponent is time.
His abortion ad blew it with me. I absolutely cannot stand candidates who, for lack of better terms, put their faith in the front window. I’d rather guess someone is a Christian and be right, then someone tell me they’re a Christian, then prove themselves wrong.
Also, if Jesse Sullivan loves Illinois so much, why is his business based in California and not Illinois?
Comment by Fivegreenleaves Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:11 pm
I-80 West?
Comment by Flapdoodle Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:11 pm
I guess his best path forward is to be Baley without the baggage. He’s kind of already taking that path. But ‘outsider conservative’ might be his best path in the primary, but he might come across as too corporate, the town banker’s kid as it were.
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:11 pm
Going back to Cali and praying that crypto rebounds
Comment by fs Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:11 pm
He abandoned the best path by going all in on a right wing Christian Conservative agenda. The path that was open was a middle of the road fresh face. Trying to out-Bailey Bailey was a mistake.
-As a parent, it is my right to have a say in my child’s education.-
You already do, Mr. Homeschooler. Leave the rest of us out of being guided by your “rights.”
Comment by Ron Burgundy Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:11 pm
=Our children aren’t allowed to say prayers at school=
Well that’s a blatant lie.
Comment by Shibboleth Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:11 pm
“Our children aren’t allowed to say prayers at school”
I know of no public school which prohibits an individual student from praying. Nor do I know of anyone in the political sphere who wants to prevent an individual child from praying.
At this point I’m expecting Sullivan to just announce he is running for governor of some off-the-wall web3 startup in the metaverse. Not jokingly. I sincerely give it better than even odds of that happening before the primary comes to a close.
Comment by TheInvisibleMan Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:13 pm
Pull downstate ads, focus on Chicagoland
Comment by Rabid Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:13 pm
Apologize to his kids for exploiting them as props in his smarmy TV ads. That told me everything I needed to know about this guy.
Comment by Lynn Becker Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:13 pm
Sullivan should be focusing these ads in Chicago, Rockford, Quad Cities, and Peoria media markets. Those are the areas of the state where there’s room for someone to squeeze in and earn some voters in the final stretch. Bailey has a tight hold on voters in the downstate media markets. I don’t think running these sort of ads will really make anyone who was leaning towards Bailey decide to vote for Sullivan. But Bailey is less well known in northern IL. Sullivan should be running comparative pieces up there, showing that Irvin is a Dem but Sullivan is the conservative. Just do what Bailey is doing.
Comment by The Real Downstate Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:15 pm
Not only can you pray individually, you can pray as a student group. What is not allowed is if is lead by staff as a part of a mandatory or coercive setting.
Sullivan’s way forward? 2026. He’s got four years to build up his campaign. He’s not a culture warrior and pretending to be one turns off his natural supporters and doesn’t convince those who want the one true culture warrior.
Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:17 pm
Path?
Easy.
Ezekiel 25:17.
“The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who, in the name of charity and good will, shepherds the weak through the valley of the darkness. For he is truly his brother’s keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers. And you will know I am the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon you.”
Worked for Jules and Vincent… Sullivan filmed *in a church*
To the question itself?
Poach Bailey folks, maybe look how Kathy Salvi is rolling, maybe pair up with signs and GOTV… as best they can with that Federal race stuff.
So… poach Bailey, work with Salvi…
…don’t anger Marsellus Wallace.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:17 pm
There’s no path forward.
There is no electoral synergy between the Crypto Bros. and Church Ladies.
If Irvin and his fortune could not put a dent in Bailey, Sullivan isnt going to do it in two weeks.
Plus, it is important to understand that culturally and politically, the Christian Right has been absorbed into the MAGA movement. They are not looking for a God-fearing, wife-loving,theocrat. They vote for guys that cheat on their wives with adult film stars now while telling others how to live their lives. Hypocrisy suits them fine, which is why attacks on Baliey have been unsuccessful.
Go ahead, attack Bailey for getting PPP money and prove me wrong.
Comment by Juvenal Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:19 pm
“Yeah, well, that didn’t happen.”
I laughed heartily at that, Rich!
Comment by Paddyrollingstone Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:23 pm
The establishment sure doesn’t like Bailey.
Makes my level like him more.
Comment by 12th dimension Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:24 pm
-Our children aren’t allowed to say prayers at school, yet boys are allowed to play in girls’ sports.-
Maybe say a few prayers for guidance on loving thy neighbor, which he clearly missed. Attacking children is disgusting and disqualifying.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:25 pm
I don’t think there’s a way for him to win this primary, it’s probably too late. Whatever he does now should be focused on setting up future runs.
His best play is to pick a part of the state that doesn’t fit into the dominant Chicago vs rural narrative and overperform there. A very strong showing in college towns and midsize cities will help him make his case next time, even if Republican primary turnout in those college towns doesn’t actually consist of college students. If he can finish strong in places like Rockford, Bloomington-Normal, and Metro East, he can point to that strength down the road.
I would also suggest that a decently funded campaign that isn’t trying to win can make a lot of friends. He should treat Bailey with kid gloves, be generous with county parties, and make sure his staff and volunteers come away feeling good. The world doesn’t stop turning on Election Day, and he’s a young guy. Finish gracefully and don’t shut any doors.
Comment by vern Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:26 pm
=Our children aren’t allowed to say prayers at school=
Just a flat out lie.
=Our students are failing the basics, but they’re teaching sexuality to second graders.=
Just no. What an utter disgrace this haircut is.
=It’s crazy. As a parent, it is my right to have a say in my child’s education.=
It is not a “right”. Most schools welcome parent input though. At least the good ones do.
=As governor, I’m going to push back against the left injecting their ideology into our curriculum. And bring excellence back to our schools.=
He wants a theocracy and his own ideology taught. If haircut had an honest bone in his body he would admit that.
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:27 pm
Jesse rejected the Z team last summer. Good for him. He’s not a puppet of the out if state consultants like Irvin
Comment by Watchful eye. Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:29 pm
His best path is to drop out and go ask for forgiveness for his obvious mendacity.
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:29 pm
The suburbs are full of people like Jesse. He needs to attract Chicago and the burbs. People in downstate just think of him as the California sellout.
Comment by Lurker Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:33 pm
One word: Plastics.
Comment by Roadrager Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:36 pm
jet back to cali
Comment by flea Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:41 pm
“filmed in a church”
Are you sure?
I thought all along that was his living room.
Comment by Michelle Flaherty Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:41 pm
After losing the governor’s race, Sullivan should apply to become director of DCFS. Since he has all the answers, Jesse could use his approach to repair a broken system.
Jesse’s focus on children, families, and education would be an asset as director of DCFS. Once he’s accomplished that enormous undertaking, Sullivan might be a viable candidate for another race.
So far, Sullivan is full of words with no deeds.
Comment by Rudy’s teeth Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:45 pm
-Good for him. He’s not a puppet of the out if state consultants like Irvin-
The out of state consultants, law firms, and media buyers that make up 19 of the 20 biggest expenditures by his campaign in the first quarter of this year will be very surprised to hear that.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:45 pm
To be himself.
Comment by Louis G Atsaves Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:47 pm
There is no path. Also, I think the political obituary for Irvin is a little premature.
Comment by Needs Deleted Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:56 pm
Keeping in mind this a primary election:
First try to build a solid get out the vote effort. I suspect the turnout will be low and a good street level approach will help. His approach to including people in developing plans and programs is a tried and true way to get a base so keep working on those folks to contact friends.
Second be extra nice to those kids. They are the stars of political ads this time around.
Third keep running positive Ads. All these negative Ads are depressing even if a small percentage of them are true.
Forth - -Keep on the phone to raise more money.
Forth stress his past international business success and volunteer efforts in Haiti etc. It is an approach to life that is quite a bit different than the incumbent and Illinois voters might be open to change.
Fifth - - thinking that educational interest will resonate with a lot of suburban and Chicago parents. Buy more time for that Ad.
His poll numbers seem to be improving and playing on that trend might help him with local political leaders.
Still very tough way to go, but he has room to pull this out.
Comment by Back to the Future Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:57 pm
He should endorse Irvin and pray for a miracle. Maybe Governor Irvin will let him run DCFS for him.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:57 pm
Maybe move to Indiana?
Comment by Homebody Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:58 pm
Bartending at Broadgauge
Comment by Old Salem Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 1:59 pm
A sad turn of events for the IL GOP.
I am a loyal Republican and I will vote for whoever the nominee is. But, I fear, Senator Bailey, despite his considerable personal charisma, cannot beat Governor Pritzker. Mayor Irvin might not be able to either, but there seems to be something of a path for him.
Mr. Sullivan seems destined to be an also ran, just a tad less successful than failed Senate candidate Jack Ryan.
Comment by DougChicago Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 2:00 pm
“what’s Jesse Sullivan’s best path forward?”
See if Ken Griffin will quietly pay him off.
– MrJM
Comment by MisterJayEm Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 2:07 pm
He can’t out-Bailey Bailey. The lane is open for a moderate to poach voters who aren’t buying what Irvin is selling. It’s not remotely too late for him to do that. And since he’s a chameleon anyway, why not?
Comment by New Day Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 2:13 pm
-See if Ken Griffin will quietly pay him off.-
But get it in cash. That crypto stuff is sketchy. /s
Comment by Ron Burgundy Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 2:15 pm
Why does he need a path forward?
He’ll go back to California, tell all his crypto bros the war stories about his great inland adventure and move onto whatever the 2023 pyramid scheme turns out to be.
Comment by northsider (the original) Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 2:29 pm
Stop lying.
Sadly, I have family members who believe his lies.
Comment by Stix Hix Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 2:30 pm
=To be himself.=
A progressive crypto-conservative from San Francisco? Well that doesn’t seem to resonate much with his target audience.
From his initial claims of military service to his hard pivot to Christian values, Jesse Sullivan has been the most inauthentic candidate in this race. And I say that knowing full well the challenges Richard Irvin faces in being authentic.
Comment by Pundent Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 2:33 pm
Amen
Comment by MXM Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 2:41 pm
==The establishment sure doesn’t like Bailey.==
I didn’t know the commenters on CapFax are the Establishment.
Comment by Streator Curmudgeon Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 2:43 pm
Probably pack it in…..
No “science” behind this, but out here in northwest Illinois the only yard signs you see are for Bailey. The US Mail has a daily barrage of mailers from all contenders…
Comment by Corn Country Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 3:22 pm
No path. If everyone else dropped out it’d be like the time Mel Carnahan died in a plane crash and still managed to win a Senate seat over John Ashcroft.
Based on Sullivan’s creepy and judgmental ads, I get the weird feeling we’ll be seeing him in about five years in front of the press, apologizing to victims and asking for God’s forgiveness over something.
Comment by Proud Papa Bear Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 5:31 pm
I like how is “creative lead” is wearing a baseball cap… so you know he’s creative
Comment by Friendly Bob Adams Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 6:52 pm
I don’t have the background to really answer the question. But, I will just make one observation. I live in the Peoria media market and I have not seen a Sullivan ad in weeks. There is no path forward if no one knows who you are.
Comment by G'Kar Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 7:13 pm
@G’Kar–
Are you watching broadcast, cable, or PBS only?
I live in Champaign-Urbana, watch broadcast TV, and do not have cable. (FWIW, I also avoid social media like the plague.)
I get to see lots of Jesse Sullivan ads, along with Darren Bailey, DGA, Richard Irvin, and lately, Rodney Davis vs. Mary Miller.
Can’t believe you are as lucky as you are telling us you are…(and dreading the sewage that will start flowing after Labor Day weekend.)
Comment by Lynn S. Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 8:24 pm
Lynn, I’ve seen plenty of ads, lately mostly DGA, a few Bailey, Pritzker, and, until recently, a lot of Irvin ads. I just haven’t seen any for Sullivan in awhile. I watch broadcast, cable and PBS.
Comment by G'Kar Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 8:50 pm
“Repentance”
Yeah. Right, if that’s what you think.
He wouldn’t know how to do that if his life depended on it.
Worked as a lay staff member in the belly of the religio-industrial complex. That is why I am an atheist.
Comment by Huh? Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 9:37 pm
“Unlocks the next round of large Chicago donors who will back the leading candidate”
Amazing how upfront they are about lusting after Chicago money while they rail against everything else about Chicago.
Comment by granville Friday, Jun 10, 22 @ 2:54 am