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* Both use a focus group theme. Click here and here for the background on the first one…
* And I don’t believe there’s any need to supply any background for this one…
The only thing I would say about these ads is that, taken together, the word “Bailey” is either spoken or flashed on the screen a total of nine times, while the word “Irvin” is said once and then flashed on the screen in the paid-for slots at the end of the spots.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:02 pm
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F for the first one. Again, as I said about the Newman ad last night, the obscene phrase is a turn-off.
D for the second one. I’m not convinced at all it really is a “focus group.”
Comment by G'Kar Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:08 pm
F. Irvin seems desperate. After $50 million in Ken Griffin funds you need a focus group type of ad to convince voters.
Comment by Real Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:11 pm
F to both for the “sound off” viewing as Bailey’s name and pic are the only ones shown, so it could be a Bailey ad.
Comment by G'Kar Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:12 pm
Someone is real scared of Bailey… that’s all these ads tell me.
Comment by LOL Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:14 pm
Actors delivered their lines well, and editors did the rest. Not sure it will move many votes.
Comment by walker Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:14 pm
D. These are weird, tough to follow for a casual viewer, and rely on complicated bank-shot messaging. As you said, they mention Bailey a lot more than Irvin, and without the monster chiller theater music you usually need to make sure your opponent’s name lands negatively.
Amazingly, it seems like the “Bailey voted for Obama/Biden” message didn’t stick and they’re abandoning it. If they were unable to neutralize that issue, Irvin might be in real trouble here.
Comment by vern Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:15 pm
First I’ve seen of these, I’ve not been watching much TV lately, so seeing this first here?
They’re a “C-“
Here’s the thing;
Right now? Right now this race is stagnant at “who is worse” or who is a worse Republican.
It’s cute. Smart. High brow to being smart to things.
Smart, crafty ads need folks to pay attention.
We’re so far in this race, folks are tuning out, and turning off.
Now you’re asking people to pay attention to… a critique… of an opponent… where the viewer really needs to pay attention.
So, as a crafty, smart angle to go about educating? Yeah. Sure.
But, this way to do it, needing the full attention to get full effect? Nah.
It’s a “C-“
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:15 pm
LOL - can you imagine what it feels like to be scared of Farren Bailey?
Comment by Immigrants Welcome Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:16 pm
C or D for both. IMHO comes across as paid actors and not a real focus group.
Also, the guy in the first video who said, “There’s ONE thing Republicans do, it’s they don’t raise taxes”. Really? You have to let the grown ups figure out when revenue needs increased?
Comment by Baloneymous Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:18 pm
They aren’t horrible, but they aren’t good either. This looks like a campaign run by one rich dude and about 30 consultants with middling records. It isn’t Bruce Rauner 2.0, it is Ron Gidwitz 2.0. And given the choice of the two, you want Rauner 2.0. The campaign feels extremely distant from the candidate.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:20 pm
My impression, nice diverse focus group by age and race. /s
Comment by Lurker Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:21 pm
===desperate===
I may very well ban that overused word because people are either using it disingenuously or out of ignorance.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:23 pm
Rating D-
The spots are “oh, so white.” Not much diversity here…kinda like Bailey’s meet and greets.
Comment by Rudy’s teeth Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:24 pm
D on both. It’s as if Ken Griffin fired his ‘Fair Tax’ A-team and brought out the second string.
Ask Rauner how ‘Madigan’s favorite Republican’ ads worked out?
Comment by Jocko Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:27 pm
===nice diverse focus group by age and race===
Old, angry, white, non-urban…
That’s a play to the base.
The fault isn’t the ad, the fault is how the GOP voting base isn’t all that diverse. This ad is playing to exactly whom the 6 should expect to be pulling GOP ballots.
I mean, if there was a diverse focus group, how accurate is that to GOP voters in Illinois?
The angry “Republicans don’t raise taxes”, that’s not just a tell, it’s a yell at the base to “wake up”… in a sense.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:29 pm
==Ask Rauner how ‘Madigan’s favorite Republican’ ads worked out?==
I don’t recall Ives winning the nomination. do you?
Comment by HowBoutDat Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:33 pm
The 2nd ad is right. Bailey is the candidate Pritzker wants. So is Irvin. Neither of them, imo, can beat Pritzker.
Comment by Fivegreenleaves Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:35 pm
===I don’t recall Ives winning the nomination. do you?===
Ives fractured the party so badly that Rauner couldn’t put it back together.
Do you remember if Ives then supported Rauner after the primary?
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:38 pm
A plus. They will move the needle. Real People. Real responses. These ads will do more to damage Bailey than anything aired to date. I love reading the comments here because it’s like watching a baseball game with guys who think they manage the team.
Comment by Tom Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:49 pm
The first ad gets a low rating of a D due to misrepresentation. Sure he voted to raise the tax levy at his school district 13 times - the vast majority of districts and all the ones under PTELL will levy to the max. PTELL creates an incentive for school districts to always levy the max ( cpi or 5% whichever is higher) which is technically a tax increase.
Comment by Donnie Elgin Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:49 pm
=== Real People. Real responses===
That’s adorable.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:50 pm
These ads are weird to me and insulting to GOP voters in a way. Like it’s saying GOP voters are too dumb and need someone to educate them on the correct way to vote.
Also making me wonder if Irvin and Griffin would have better spent their money setting up reeducation camps for GOP primary voters instead of running ads.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:52 pm
Irvin and Bailey have saturated the airwaves and mailboxes with their repetitive hits on each other. My hunch is they are picking up zero new or undecided votes. It is just a trench warfare exercise in attrition.
By comparison, watch a Pritzker ad for the Peoria bridge, Rockford airport shipping terminal, or Joliet electric buses, and they seem almost refreshing.
While Irvin and Bailey are lobbing expensive attacks at each other, they are also not explaining anything about their positions to bring in new voters. Each day spent like that is a win for Pritzker.
Comment by Langhorne Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:54 pm
F. LOL these “actors.” such a fake focus group.
Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:59 pm
=“There’s ONE thing Republicans do, it’s they don’t raise taxes”=
I didn’t watch them, I just came for the hot takes. But it really said this in the ad? It said that the one thing Republicans do is *not* doing something? So, admitting they’ll do nothing? Got it
Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:59 pm
I think these meta ads are too clever by half, especially the second one. If Illinois Republicans were really so desperate to win, they would…make a lot of different choices. I’m also just not sure how much lower you can work Bailey- he already struggles to get to 20%.
That being said, any message beats no message.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 12:59 pm
“Pritzker ad for the Peoria bridge….they seem almost refreshing”
when you’re unopposed in the primary it is the season of refreshing ads. Not so for the crowded GOP field .
Comment by Donnie Elgin Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 1:07 pm
F-
These ads are weird and bad. We can all spend hours trying to justify them with some sort of high level inception argument but that doesn’t stop the ads from being weird and bad. And sometimes when something seems weird and bad it is just weird and bad.
Comment by PoliSci for Life Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 1:08 pm
Best Irvin Ad efforts since the opening introduction effort.
Grade for the Ads- - c-
Comment by Back to the Future Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 1:08 pm
==I love reading the comments here because it’s like watching a baseball game with guys who think they manage the team. ==
My favorites are the ones that aren’t self aware enough to recognize that they’re doing the exact same thing they accuse everyone else of doing.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 1:10 pm
Has me wondering if Paul Schimpf will get a bounce from the Trib endorsement. It’s not like voters don’t know who Bailey and Irvin are, so like Langhorne said, this is a war of attrition. Schimpf has room to grow. If he only had some cash.
Comment by Socially DIstant Watcher Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 1:12 pm
==== Real People. Real responses====
Paid actors.
=which is technically a tax increase.=
Not just technically. Increasing the levy requires an affirmative vote on a newly developed levy. It is an intentional act, and all of that tax raising makes Bailey a hypocrite and it is one of the few honest attacks on anyone from dishonest Irv.
Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 1:15 pm
B-, they’re different from the clutter. They lean into the fact that a lot of voters are looking for validation for their ideas and not new information. Kind of the same reason internet message boards turn into echo chambers, people are more interested in validation than introspection. My guess is these are intended to nudge and reinforce what polling is already showing about the base.
Comment by Franklin Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 1:31 pm
Bailey is having a tough week. Any word on that Quincy rally?
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 1:32 pm
++++++++++++++
===desperate===
I may very well ban that overused word because people are either using it disingenuously or out of ignorance.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
Ok, fair enough. But, there is a sense of ….. let’s say urgency in Irvin’s campaign right now. It’s clearly there.
I still think he wins the primary. But it appears Bailey is closer to him than Irvin’s handlers are comfortable with. Just my perspective.
Comment by Try-4-Truth Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 1:49 pm
==Ok, fair enough. But, there is a sense of ….. let’s say urgency in Irvin’s campaign right now. It’s clearly there.==
To be fair, we’re less than a month out.
But I do agree with you that the Irvin campaign does not feel entirely in control right now. It’s just…I dunno, that stuff is easy for us outsiders to say, y’know?
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 1:59 pm
“Bailey is having a tough week. Any word on that …”
Tramp endorsement? Wonder if beetle received his signed picture yet. /s
Comment by Huh? Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 2:10 pm
D on both.
Whoever wrote these must have missed the Progressive Insurance commercial with the focus group that went off the rails. It mocked focus groups so perfectly that these two spots seem like tone-deaf attempts to right the ship.
All the lines are button-pushers, which Irvin’s ad-men think will get the desired response. Maybe they will.
Franklin @ 1:31 makes a good point. Validation of pre-existing ideas. Otherwise they would be pretty condescending.
Comment by Streator Curmudgeon Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 2:11 pm
C+
Boring aesthetics, choppy editing, and stiff acting. Still, it gets the attack message out again.
Comment by Proud Papa Bear Wednesday, Jun 1, 22 @ 6:38 pm