Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: Another loss for Tom DeVore, this time in Christian County
Next Post: Question of the day
Posted in:
* These Morning Consult results are always a bit questionable because their methodology is opaque and they survey over several months, in this case January 1 through March 31, 2022. Anyway…
Across the country, all but eight governors are backed by 50% or more of their state’s voters. And in nearly all cases, the Democrats among them are getting higher approval ratings than Biden, while more often than not drawing more cross-party support than the president and Democratic senators.
But when considering each state, the average GOP governor has a higher approval rating than the average Democratic governor (58% to 51%), boosted by the popularity of a handful of blue-state Republicans.
Thoughts?
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 2:31 pm
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: Another loss for Tom DeVore, this time in Christian County
Next Post: Question of the day
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
Not under water and over 50%
Not a bad place to be rolling into May for a November election
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 2:34 pm
===But when considering each state===
It’s a good thing that each governor only needs to win the state they govern… if I consider that…
When I get to vote for Idaho’s governor then I’ll consider whatever it is that whole paragraph wants to tie together
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 2:38 pm
51 percent while he’s running constant ads promoting himself and the Republicans haven’t started running negative ads yet. I wouldn’t be comfortable if I was him.
Comment by well... Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 2:38 pm
Only 8 Governors have higher disapproval ratings and JB is not in a bad place in a Blue state with a supermajority Democratic legislature like Illinois?
The 11 most popular Governors are all Republicans.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 2:40 pm
To quote a former Democratic Governor:
“It’s the economy”.
But only at 51% in IL isn’t super great either. JB needs turnout, some good economic news and to hope for a dork opponent.
At least his commercials seem to be getting better.
Comment by Fav Human Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 2:42 pm
It’s a midterm, the party in power always takes a hit in the polls. Especially if that party in power seems incapable of passing anything without it heing through reconciliation.
Dems need to message on what they have delivered, not just what manchin & sinema have blocked. They need to be shouting this message loudly and frequently. They do not have the synchphantic propaganda machine that the Republicans enjoy.
Comment by Commisar Gritty Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 2:42 pm
===Only 8 Governors have higher disapproval ratings and JB===
Good thing JB isn’t running against them.
Pritzker might get… Darren Bailey…
===The 11 most popular Governors are all Republicans===
Narrator: Pritzker only needs to win in Illinois
Pritzker is over 50%, not under water, and one GOP candidate signed a thingy about school and recently wanted to be clear about abortion
Until Pritzker needs to win Texas to be Illinois’ governor, your bot analysis is like when someone spills coffee on a laptop.., it’s on the fritz.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 2:47 pm
=== 51 percent while he’s running constant ads promoting himself and the Republicans haven’t started running negative ads yet. I wouldn’t be comfortable if I was him.===
Can’t beat someone with no one
Irvin is the best shot, but Irvin might enter the General Election more fractured than Rauner was after Ives.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 2:48 pm
“But only at 51% in IL isn’t super great either.”
Pat Quinn’s approval rating was in the 30s before the 2014 election. Rauner’s approval rating was 25% in 2018 at one point.
Comment by Baloneymous Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 2:57 pm
Not too bad, better than expected. JB has many accomplishments on which to campaign and ask for a second term, especially the fiscal improvement and increased funding for education, child care, public safety, etc.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 3:04 pm
Anybody know what Rod’s approval rating was at this point in 2006? Had to be under 51%, right? (I can’t find approval polls from them, but he was under 51% in the election polls all year).
Comment by Downstater-in-Chicago Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 3:07 pm
“ Republicans haven’t started running negative ads yet.” They’re too busy trying to find a way to blame each other for things they’re going to blame Pritzker for in the general.
Comment by Fixer Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 3:09 pm
if I were JB with these numbers facing this field in such a terrible political environment nationally, I’d feel pretty darned good right about now. Bet his internals are even better than these suspect Morning Consult numbers.
Comment by New Day Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 3:13 pm
“The 11 most popular Governors are all Republicans.”
And Republican Charlie Baker would be thrown out of the ILGOP at the speed of light, and most of those other top 10 states too. He’s pro-choice for one, and understands climate change.
I look forward to the day when the ILGOP would be able to produce a candidate like Charlie Walker.
Comment by TheInvisibleMan Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 3:19 pm
Republican Charlie Baker would be thrown out of the ILGOP at the speed of light
Kind of like Dan L was tossed?
Comment by Fav Human Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 3:24 pm
“Kind of like Dan L was tossed?”
Who????
Comment by New Day Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 3:32 pm
If I were the Governor I would be pretty happy with those numbers right now. If you believe the Republicans the state is 3 breaths away from death and we all need to be saved. Seems like a few people disagree with the Republican hyperventilation about everything.
Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 3:34 pm
==JB needs turnout, some good economic news and to hope for a dork opponent.==
I feel like that last one’s just about a lock.
Comment by Benjamin Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 3:36 pm
===JB needs turnout, some good economic news and to hope for a dork opponent.===
… or an abortion ruling limiting or gutting Roe.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 3:38 pm
“some good economic news” So lower unemployment, a budget surplus, paying down debt and an improved credit rating count as … doomsday?
Comment by Skeptic Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 3:52 pm
=“ Republicans haven’t started running negative ads yet.” =
Lol, I guess Irvin’s ads are “positive”? How dark can the ILGOP get? Nevermind…
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 3:59 pm
Dan L –> Dan Lipinski, primaried twice
Comment by Fav Human Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 4:01 pm
===Dan Lipinski, primaried twice===
Won one… now Illinois is saddled with Newman.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 4:05 pm
51-43 in a Deep Blue State is pretty darn good for JB, that was during the last big omicron wave.
I think his numbers probably only get better now that Fauci has declared the pandemic over, a budget has passed, tax breaks are on the way, and Republicans continue to stuggle to figure out who they are.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 4:40 pm
This is not a surprise to anyone paying attention to the majority, not the vocal minority. Mirrors polls on approval for covid rules. Most Dems are clearly happy enough with JB, so he wins if they turn out. Anyone happy with JB right now is not going to be swayed by the upcoming negative ads.
Comment by Jibba Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 4:54 pm
Dan L…right. How quickly I forget.
Comment by New Day Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 5:00 pm
Not a great pollster, dont really care
Comment by paradox Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 6:05 pm
If Pritzker loses it will be because of the refusal of Kim “let’em go” Foxx refusing to enforce the law. Shoplifting is not even enforced in Cook County if the value of the goods stolen is less than $950. Pritzker has to walk a tightrope of supporting other Democrats but not support or agree with some of their actions.
Comment by DuPage Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 7:31 pm
== Only 8 Governors have higher disapproval ratings and JB is not in a bad place in a Blue state with a supermajority Democratic legislature like Illinois?==
Correct, and someday you’re going to learn your lesson for asking rhetorical questions like this.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 8:37 pm
== But only at 51% in IL isn’t super great either. ==
“In IL”, what’s that mean? What were Bruce Rauner’s approval ratings in 2018? Or Pat Quinn’s in ‘14- or ‘10?
These are a lot better numbers than governors “in IL” have had for several terms now.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 8:41 pm
Job approval can be an important metric and this are pretty good numbers, all things considered.
Folks planning on spending Ken Griffin’s money shouldn’t be too excited by this number. Job approval is a different kind of calculus than the decision a voter makes between the only two candidates on election day and they’re still relying on lying to and gas lighting the voters of Illinois to get to 50%+1 and that can have diminishing returns. It’s easier to misrepresent a constitutional amendment than it is to try to distance your nominee from the other things your party is doing in other states to strip people of rights and try to make it illegal to teach kids about slavery while trying to turn public schools into institutions that promote homophobia.
JB Pritzker just needs to articulate what he has done. Democrats nationally just need to articulate what they have done — and then without naming names or being specific tie their opponents to what the Republicans have done.
Comment by Candy Dogood Thursday, Apr 28, 22 @ 11:09 pm
==Anybody know what Rod’s approval rating was at this point in 2006? Had to be under 51%, right? (I can’t find approval polls from them, but he was under 51% in the election polls all year).==
Per Wikipedia, a Rasmussen poll on Apr. 24, 2006 actually had JBT with a 44-38% lead over Blago.
But that was shortly before Governor Elvis started warming up the attack ads and when he made “What’s She Thinking” become a household phrase.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Illinois_gubernatorial_election#Polling
Comment by NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham Friday, Apr 29, 22 @ 8:38 am