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Fun with numbers

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* Um

Sales have fallen significantly since Illinois dispensaries unloaded a record $137 million worth of recreational cannabis products last December, raising concerns that limited supply and sky-high prices could be pushing consumers into the illicit market.

Illinois’ 110 licensed pot shops tallied $117 million in sales in January and just under $114 million in February, the lowest monthly haul since last March.

Massive monthly receipts had been one of the few bright spots for Illinois’ highly regulated recreational pot program, which has generated over $2 billion in sales over its first two years despite some month-to-month dips.

OK, wait a second. Last year, monthly sales ranged from a low of $81 million in February, to a high of $137 million in December. Sales stayed in the range of $115 million to $123 million from April through November, except for a spike in July, which was partly attributed to Lollapalooza. So, we’re back to being about where we were then, and much higher than where we were a year ago.

Also, hmm. Doesn’t December contain a very large religious/consumer holiday known as Christmas? Gifts and holiday partying could’ve been a big reason for that spike.

You see this sort of reporting a lot with crime statistics, only in reverse. Chicago media outlets regularly compare 2020-2022 murder stats to 2019, when the city’s murders were trending lower for three years.

The truth is, February’s cannabis sales were 40.7 percent higher than last February. January sales were 31.5 percent higher than the previous January. Let’s see some more numbers before concluding there’s a gigantic problem that requires mandated price or tax cuts or whatever.

But, yeah, let’s also get more growers and dispensaries up and running, for crying out loud.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Mar 17, 22 @ 1:30 pm

Comments

  1. It would address a lot of concerns about the illicit market if people were allowed to legally grow their own plants for personal recreational use and provide a competitive alternative to illegal black market sales.

    Comment by Candy Dogood Thursday, Mar 17, 22 @ 1:35 pm

  2. As a social scientist, I too have a thing about numbers, statistics, and their proper usage. When I see similar reports that literally find data to support their argument, rather than understanding basic math and statistics, and that ignore fundamental scientific and ethical norms, I get really frustrated. Maybe social scientists should be doing social science, instead of politicians and pundits (cf., Max Weber 1917).

    Comment by H-W Thursday, Mar 17, 22 @ 1:41 pm

  3. Maybe we can smoke and toke Illinois into fiscal security? I have been told easier to just get it from your usual supplier used in the past. Not sure but it sounds like less hassle at least buying.

    Comment by clec dcn Thursday, Mar 17, 22 @ 1:43 pm

  4. Deep analysis is hard. Too many of today’s journalists or so-called pundits don’t want to work hard before they play up the controversy, conflict, and criticism in the subject of their story.

    Comment by Norseman Thursday, Mar 17, 22 @ 1:44 pm

  5. I agree with Rich. I received a large supply as a Christmas gift so I haven’t had to go bad to the store for a few months. Buyer beware as to which deispensory you go to. The sky isn’t falling.

    Comment by the Edge Thursday, Mar 17, 22 @ 1:44 pm

  6. It is TOO expensive and oftentimes not worth the cost. I head to MI for it legally for cheaper; my old illicit standby when sticking closer to home.

    Comment by Keith Thursday, Mar 17, 22 @ 1:46 pm

  7. ==which was partly attributed to Lollapalooza==

    I wonder if as a thank you there will be an effort to book Brewer and Shipley for Lolla ‘22 (if they’re still around).

    Comment by NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham Thursday, Mar 17, 22 @ 2:02 pm

  8. ===…if people were allowed to legally grow their own plants for personal recreational use and provide a competitive alternative to illegal black market sales.===

    Well, you’re not wrong, but I think the lost revenue to the state is a compelling reason not to allow home grow for personal use. And I also think home growers might supply friends and neighbors, which also would reduce the state’s take from cannabis sales.

    I can barely grow mold on bread, so I’m never going to be a home grow person. But I can understand why people are frustrated with this situation. Maybe someday things will change, but let’s face it, the state needs the revenue for the foreseeable future.

    Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Mar 17, 22 @ 2:05 pm

  9. I mean, when you think about it, of course people are buying and using more during the holidays.

    “Well I don’t know what to say, except, it’s Christmas and we’re all in misery.” - Ellen Griswold

    Comment by fs Thursday, Mar 17, 22 @ 2:13 pm

  10. Mandate a free doobie prior to purchase. That should double sales lol.

    Comment by PublicServant Thursday, Mar 17, 22 @ 2:13 pm

  11. @NonAFSCME - Brewer and Shipley. Thanks for the memory.

    Comment by H-W Thursday, Mar 17, 22 @ 2:14 pm

  12. Didn’t January have 10% more days than Feb? Do the math.

    Comment by Stritz Thursday, Mar 17, 22 @ 2:14 pm

  13. ===much higher than where we were a year ago===

    Heh.

    Comment by Nick Name Thursday, Mar 17, 22 @ 2:23 pm

  14. Mike Tyson has introduced a line of edibles called Mike Bites. They are gummies shaped like ears, with a bite taken out of them. I kid you not. I won’t be a customer.

    Comment by Langhorne Thursday, Mar 17, 22 @ 2:57 pm

  15. ===Heh===

    Totally unintended. But nice catch. Heh.

    Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Mar 17, 22 @ 2:59 pm

  16. There needs to be a much greater supply. A liquor license is a license to work hard with lots of legal competitors. A marijuana license is a license to roll around in money, as you have few if any legal competitors.

    Comment by Anyone Remember Thursday, Mar 17, 22 @ 3:35 pm

  17. Call to action. Everyone needs to do their part to keep this young industry growing.

    Comment by Pot calling kettle Thursday, Mar 17, 22 @ 7:59 pm

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