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* As a reminder, 84 percent said Illinois was on the wrong track in an early 2018 poll conducted by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute. Things are improving from the Rauner days and it shows, despite the best efforts of some. This poll is from Ogden & Fry…
* Methodology…
Ogden & Fry conducted a nine-question poll on Friday June 4 and Saturday June 5, 2021 with 752 respondents. Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely general election voters. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.65% at the 95% confidence interval.
There were several other questions, mostly related to the sex education bill, so click here for the rest.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 1:02 am
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It’s just one poll of course, but no Dem with a 55+ approval rating is gonna lose IL.
Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 6:35 am
I’m honestly pretty surprised by these numbers. I would have thought his handling of Covid brought him good will, but his handling of IDES brought him ruin. I was expecting him to be around the 40s in strongly/somewhat favorable.
Comment by Too cute by half Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 8:13 am
I gotta be honest, this looks like a pretty bad poll. Few questions/critiques:
1. There’s no info on the way this poll was conducted; live telephone, IVR, and online polling all have different reliability levels.
2. They came up with a reasonable D/R split that’s completely reversed in the Conservative/Liberal split. I know there are conservative Democrats in the world, so some narrowing would be expected but a total reverse is fishy.
3. They also overweighted “Downstate” by about 8-9 points, entirely at the expense of the collar counties. The rough population breakdown is more like 40% Cook, 26% Collar, 34% Downstate.
4. They say they screened for likely voters, but an 8% 0V and a male +3 gender gap makes this information’s usefulness a little suspect for predictive purposes.
5. Lastly, the phrasing of the questions is quite obviously ideologically informed.
A brief Google search indicates that former Cook County Republican Party leader Tom Swiss sold the company a few years ago, but there’s no info on the company website about the current owners. Their recent contract work has been for Republicans, including Eastern Bloc and similar Reps like Miller, Caulkins and Skillicorn. A history of Republican campaign work, questions phrased for shock value, and statistical anomalies that all point towards more conservative results combine to make me a skeptic here.
Comment by vern Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 8:39 am
The methodology is certainly curious. I can’t say I’ve ever seen a statewide poll in Illinois that’s under 800 completed interviews. The sample is said to have had 752 respondents and yet the questions shown in the blog only total 596 and 572. It says that they’re “likely general election voters” but 8% of their sample has never voted - which is pretty incredible to think you’d vote in 2022 but skipped 2020. I also don’t see cell phones listed which leads me to believe there weren’t any.
Comment by Suburban Guy Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 8:50 am
The numbers show the uphill battle the Republicans will have in 2022. Hard to see Darren Bailey flipping this around. And if the ILGOP is serious about making this a race they need to find a real candidate.
Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 8:51 am
So I guess the “Pritzker (stinks)” message is working as well as the “Fire Madigan” message.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 9:19 am
The Gov’s #s in the collar counties highlight the GOP’s uphill battle. 55% approval for the Gov in the collars. Good place to be for the Gov.
Comment by Scott Fawell's Cellmate Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 9:25 am
Pleasantly surprised by this result. Would think Pritzker’s approval/disapproval would be a wash or barely above water.
Pritzker has the accomplishments and money to counter the right wing narrative of how terrible Illinois is, especially as we recover from COVID.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 9:28 am
44.8% downstate approval. That’s huge. I would have expected it in the 30s.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 9:31 am
“would have expected it in the 30s”
Depends on what they consider “downstate”.
I-64 south, if Pritzker’s numbers are 45% positive, the GOP shouldn’t bother with a candidate.
Which, to date, it doesn’t look they are.
Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 9:50 am
These numbers are a bit rosier than most of the other polls. The Rs better hope this is an outlier because 57.% approval in a strongly Democratic state would put him right on the edge of unbeatable.
Comment by Chicago Blue Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 9:52 am
At face value JB’s numbers are fine…the state’s “right track” numbers aren’t however. With that said, GOP will need a candidate that can put together the $ and operation to knock JB’s approvals down closer to the “wrong track” numbers.
Comment by CubsFan16 Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 10:25 am
“the state’s “right track” numbers aren’t however.” I suspect that comes down to one word: Taxes.
Comment by Skeptic Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 10:29 am
It would be nice to know the historical right/wrong track numbers. When was the last time that right track numbers were at 40%?
Comment by Hmm Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 10:37 am
maybe Speaker Madigan was right about the reasonable and moderate Illinois electorate
The sex education law is widely unpopular and radical
Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 11:13 am
As with Lightfoot, I think these numbers look even better when you consider them in a vacuum and ask who is the candidate JB would be running against? Unless the GOP goes “outside the box” and gets some sort of star-power/celeb type (and I haven’t the foggiest idea who that might be) their bench is the weakest I can remember.
Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 11:22 am
“no Dem with a 55+ approval rating is gonna lose IL.”
Still miles to go before we sleep.
– MrJM
Comment by @misterjayem Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 11:42 am
1. I doubt the poll’s accuracy 2. There is deep resentment in how the Governor handled this crisis - including the LaSalle Veterans home 3. We’ve seen now that most polls do not reflect the electorate - we’ve seen this over and over again 4. I agree witha number of comments above doubtful of the poll’s methodology.
Comment by Pollwatcher Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 12:07 pm
Some of y’all really need to get off Facebook.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 12:11 pm
=== I doubt the poll’s accuracy 2. There is deep resentment in how the Governor handled this crisis - including the LaSalle Veterans home 3. We’ve seen now that most polls do not reflect the electorate - we’ve seen this over and over again.===
This is doubtful and silly and someone who thinks if the poll doesn’t agree with me, it’s not valid.
Unless the Raunerites choose someone not from the Eastern Bloc and have 9-figures in monies to go after a guy well above water and is willing to spend $300,000 a day, every day in the past… unless that is in the works, maybe work on low hanging fruit like Alexi and Frerichs, much more reasonable and vulnerable targets.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 12:11 pm
=== maybe Speaker Madigan was right about the reasonable and moderate Illinois electorate
The sex education law is widely unpopular and radical===
Your Mad-Libs to try to decipher this as bad is a comical as your ideas on most things.
The “Fire Madigan” ruse was a loser, maybe take it out of your Mad-Libs when you next update.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 12:40 pm
Some of the crosstabs at the link are unintentionally quite funny.
Comment by Friendly Bob Adams Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 12:56 pm
===Some of y’all really need to get off Facebook.
I think you meant All…
Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 1:41 pm
===Some of the crosstabs at the link are unintentionally quite funny.
LOL–I thought the same thing. For or against…
Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 1:42 pm
Poll is good. Folks can complain or rationalize that it’s not real but it is what it is.
Still a long way to go but with this poll it’s looking good for the JB team. Now add in a pro-labor constitutional amendment to turn out union D’s and his $300k/day spending in a non presidential year that’s a pretty solid game plan.
Who can match? Who even has anywhere close to that type of name ID?
Comment by Frank talks Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 2:28 pm
Who possibly thinks that Pritzker is doing a good job based upon some of the junk legislation that he has recently signed. I gave him a pass during covid but come on. If Dan Cronin was a billionaire he would win.
Comment by DMC Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 3:07 pm
==Who possibly thinks that Pritzker is doing a good job==
57% of the state, apparently.
Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 3:08 pm
Dan Cronin only won reelection as DuPage County Board Chairman by 2 points in 2018. That showing is very low for a two term incumbent and is not enough for a statewide win. Heck, he probably might not be able to keep the county board chairmanship next year… This isn’t your grandfather’s Dupage or suburbia anymore.
Comment by DupageRes Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 3:19 pm
=== ==Who possibly thinks that Pritzker is doing a good job==
57% of the state, apparently.===
Hil-air-E-ous
Please get off Facebook
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 3:27 pm
==Who possibly thinks that Pritzker is doing a good job==
The silent majority.
Comment by Proud Papa Bear Tuesday, Jun 8, 21 @ 4:13 pm