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* I told subscribers weeks ago that the good government groups’ only real job this spring was to find three House Democrats willing to stand up and say they would not vote for any remap plan devised by legislators. Preventing a veto-proof majority in just one chamber would’ve put enormous pressure on Gov. JB Pritzker to keep his promise to veto an unfair map. And that, in turn, would’ve put pressure on the majority party to rethink its entire strategy.
If 19 House Democrats stood up to stop the most powerful Democrat in Illinois history from being reelected, could 3 be found, cajoled or pressured to do the same on the remap?
Nope. Didn’t happen.
The Democrats stuck together and good government groups either didn’t bother to up the ante on them or simply sided with Republicans. And now it’s all devolved into a last-minute partisan process argument…
Republican lawmakers and non-partisan good government advocates continue to bash the first draft of Illinois’ Democrat-controlled map for the next decade. Legislators held a joint committee hearing with the redistricting groups Tuesday afternoon.
While Democratic leaders released the map late Friday night, lawmakers and the public still want to see each district’s geographical boundaries and demographics. They also want to know the information Democrats used to craft the map besides data from the 2019 American Community Survey.
Tuesday night, Republicans pushed Democrats to explain when they’ll file the legislation for the new map. With six days left before adjournment, the legislation and bill sponsor is still unknown. Also, only one Democrat participated in person with Republicans during Tuesday’s hearing. The other Democratic members appeared virtually.
Nearly every advocacy group testifying before the committee asked lawmakers to wait on the mapping process until after the census data is ready in mid-August.
“There’s still time. We could back away from this ledge and hit the pause button,” said Jay Young, Executive Director of Common Cause Illinois. “We can still appeal to the courts. I urge you in the most strenuous way, please take this opportunity.”
It’s just too late for that argument because the courts are not known for acting in a prompt manner. But since the Democrats refused to ask the Illinois Supreme Court to intervene on our constitutional deadline the way the California Democrats did with their Supreme Court, why didn’t anyone else?
* Instead, the goo-goos fundraised off of a claim that Black and Brown people were being disenfranchised…
Illinois politicians introduced the set of maps that they have been working on behind closed doors for weeks. These maps use 5-year sampling data that we know undercounts Illinoisans by 41,877 people.
We know this undercount likely has a great effect on people of color. It’s beyond alarming and disappointing. For too long, Black communities have historically been underrepresented, under-resourced, and targeted by large-scale misinformation campaigns designed to further disenfranchise them.
These maps are just another example of this disenfranchisement.
The decisions by our current lawmakers will disenfranchise tens of thousands of voices for a decade by creating representative maps that do not include them. How is this equity for Illinois?
* Except, Illinois has one of the best track records in the nation of drawing legislative districts for people of color. Fox 32…
After meeting for months behind sealed doors, Democrats now hope to lock in their Springfield super-majorities for another ten years. They are declining to answer questions because they fear anything they say publicly will be used against them when Republicans inevitably challenge the new district boundaries in court.
In previous years, some judges overturned new district maps based on issues related to minority representation. On that count, the Democrats’ remap expert called Illinois a model for the nation, not least because Illinois is one of the few places in the country where large groups of white voters regularly support minority candidates.
“A little under a third of the members of the state House and the state Senate are African-American, Asian-American or Hispanic,” said Prof. Allan Lichtman of American University. “That’s right in line with the citizen minority voting age population in the state.” […]
Democrats are now rushing to approve a redistricting plan because of a deadline imposed by the Illinois Constitution. Unless the job is done by the end of next month, random chance will decide which party gets to finish the process. That means Republicans would have a 50-50 chance.
There’s another step before that 50-50 drawing, but, yeah. Anyway, this is what it has come down to because three brave HDem souls could not be found or cultivated or pounded into submission.
Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington, D.C., who was hired as a consultant by the House and Senate Democratic caucuses, testified that in his opinion, ACS data is acceptable to use for redistricting because in the five years leading up to the 2010 census, those estimates for Illinois were off by only about 0.3 percent.
“Nationally, there is no requirement under law or the constitution in Illinois that only decennial U.S. census data can be used for redistricting,” he said. “In fact, the majority of states, I repeat that, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, do not explicitly require that you must use only decennial census data for internal redistricting purposes, particularly of course when such data is not available or delayed.” […]
Rep. Elizabeth Hernandez, D-Cicero, who chairs the House Redistricting Committee, said the maps before the committee were only a draft, but McConchie said the committee still needed to see the demographic numbers.
“How can we appropriately measure the draft without the numbers,” he asked.
Well, I dunno, Leader. As subscribers know, I hired a consultant to put together the demographic numbers for each and every district. Y’all have a large state budget for this sort of thing. Maybe reach out to me and I’ll give you his number?
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 10:59 am
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I still don’t get why someone else doesn’t sue and seek declaratory judgment that the plain text of the state constitutional deadlines don’t apply because the federal agency messed up so badly.
Anyone can sue and make that argument.
It seems like a really weak argument to make, but anyone can make it.
Comment by Dan Johnson Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 11:06 am
When the Roberts led SCOTUS punted on Wisconsin’s extreme gerrymander, it gave the green light to this map. I like the concept of fair maps, but without federal legislation, it would be suicide for any Dem to embrace such a thing at the state level.
Comment by SWIL_Voter Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 11:10 am
If we just could have tied fair maps to legal weed….
Comment by Hyrum Powell Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 11:18 am
3 House Dems could not be found…
Maybe because they trust Welch and Harmon to come up with a very fair map which protects minority voting interests? I mean, it is their interests both as individual legislators as well as chamber leaders to produce maps which do just that.
If certain groups think they can get further with the Republican Party, with their track record of disenfranchising people of color, then they really are lost.
Comment by low level Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 11:20 am
Reformers don’t want reform. They want the appearance that they’re the only ones who care about it.
They lost most, if not all, of their mojo when MJM left the General Assembly. Now it rings hollow, and lacking modern racial sensitivity.
Comment by Not for nothing Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 11:20 am
What exactly did the Good Government folks do to persuade three Dems that the googoos would be strong, reliable, fair-minded partners? How did they show support to Dems who came out on their side, in the face of opposition from fellow party members?
Comment by Soccermom Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 11:21 am
If I learned *anything*… and I mean anything… from Bruce Rauner…
It was Drury, Dunkin, and Franks.
That’s what I learned.
Ruining the opportunity for veto-proof things allowed Rauner’s power to exist… through his veto.
The goo-goos not grasping the 71/36 lesson *first*… allowing a veto to stand… that’s a major mistake to process… and a lobbying mistake to this specific process to leverage.
Rich’s open to this post, that’s everything. It’s everything… plus
I mean… Rauner… Rauner looks smarter to process.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 11:23 am
===What exactly did the Good Government folks do===
Nothing, zip, nada.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 11:24 am
For the goo goos and many politicians this map is a godsend
Just like because Madigan this gives them something to complain about and fund raise for another ten years. As is said money talks a win win for all the future fund raisers
Comment by DuPage Saint Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 11:32 am
==I hired a consultant to put together the demographic numbers for each and every district. Y’all have a large state budget for this sort of thing.==
That would require the Republicans to make a specific case that they would do better, which seems very unlikely.
I assume the Republicans have already drawn their own maps. I also assume they are none of the things the Republicans claim to advocate in favor of.
The goo-goos could have produced a set of maps that meet their requirements. Showing those maps to potential Dem supporters (to show that they would be “safe” or to show racial equity) and to the media would make for a much better case.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 11:32 am
When an organization starts making demands for policies that throw the baby out with the bathwater that’s when I stop finding them relevant. Any organization that is making a sincere effort to improve things should take great pause when the GQP is suddenly taking up their mantel.
As the GQP is currently in a process of trying to eat their own over reasonable positions like denouncing an insurrection I don’t understand why any organization would dare mistake thinking that they’re a friend in a policy setting. If your position involves advocating for the only scenario in which the GQP can win total control over the legal and constitutional process of redistricting after being relegated to a super minority in the State House and State Senate and losing every single state wide office seat you should recognize that what you’re advocating for isn’t a position that is in favor of Democracy.
Regroup and try to Change the constitution. Don’t attack leaders that agree with your principles because they have found themselves in a situation where waiting jeopardizes the ability to have reasonable people in the majority in our legislature instead temper tamper throwing and seditious anti-democracy buffoons.
===the goo-goos fundraised===
This should be the death nail for that organization. Especially given the diversity and inclusiveness of the caucus they’re criticizing when compared to the caucus they’re seeking to enable.
Comment by Candy Dogood Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 11:34 am
The national Democrats telling Illinois Democrats they would hold off on the the congressional maps until the new Census data is used would seem to be a strong argument to use against what the Illinois Dems are doing (ramrodding a gerrymandered map). But I haven’t heard that argument that undermines the entire use of ASC data.
Regardless, this whole exercise exposes the gigantic gulf between the lofty ideals espoused by progressive Democrats and the reality of the power grab underway. Just call it was it is - a partisan power grab. Show up at committees and be honest. Quit hiding behind zoom. Be proud of the power grab and gerrymandering. Own it. The Texas Republicans own their power grab.
Comment by west wing Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 11:35 am
As I always say, beware when the self styled reformers come knocking. They accomplish nothing and complain about everything. Not terribly effective allies to he sure.
Comment by low level Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 11:39 am
Outside the views of GOP leadership and the Trib, are the maps *that* bad? The maps lean Dem sure, but when Naperville, of all places, vote 60/40 Dem perhaps the problem isn’t creating maps that “help” the GOP, it’s finding candidates that people are willing to vote GOP for.
If you’re downstate and can’t/won’t see why this matters- if Cook county was a state, it’d be the 23rd largest state in the Union. DuPage alone would be the 46th. Cook/DuPage/Lake have a population greater than the rest of the state combined. Find candidates that work upstate not just in the Bloc and perhaps there’d be more GOP in office
Comment by jimbo Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 11:44 am
=== … since the Democrats refused to ask the Illinois Supreme Court to intervene on our constitutional deadline the way the California Democrats did with their Supreme Court, why didn’t anyone else? ===
Can’t speak for the self-described good government groups (perhaps a standing concern), it’s easy to explain why the GQP didn’t do so. They didn’t want an extension so the commission process would be engaged.
=== Well, I dunno, Leader. … I hired a consultant to put together the demographic numbers for each and every district. Y’all have a large state budget for this sort of thing. Maybe reach out to me and I’ll give you his number? ===
Rich hits another home run; I would consider it a grand slam. McConchie knows the demographics. He’s not sharing because he’s throwing out talking points to criticize the Dem maps.
Comment by Norseman Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 11:47 am
Low Level — you reminded me of this
“Beware of the scribes…”
Comment by Soccermom Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 11:51 am
=the reality of the power grab underway. Just call it was it is - a partisan power grab.=
Maybe go back and read Candy Dogoods post and explain how this is a power grab again.
The ILDP is a super majority and holds all statewide positions. They already HAVE the power and the voters of Illinois gave it to them through the Democratic process.
The overwhelming majority of Illinois voters are ok with this. Just career GQP grifters complaining.
Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 11:59 am
===The national Democrats===
Beside the fact that that the priorities are very different between the state and national organizations when it comes to strategic thought to the redistricting process on the national level I don’t think the DCCC or the DNC have much in the way of credibility especially when we consider how badly their national messaging has set up governor and legislative races that are critical to the redistricting process and how nationally they’ve created a situation through a poor top down approach that the bench for the Democratic party is incredibly thin and the median and mean for incumbent members of congress that caucus with the Democratic Party isn’t terribly suggestive of any interest in developing opportunities for the three generations that have come after the baby boomers.
The legislature in Illinois is controlled by a super majority belonging to the Democratic Party and every state wide office is filled with a Democratic candidate. Advice from the DCCC and DNC on how to win should be taken sparingly or be completely disregarded.
Comment by Candy Dogood Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 11:59 am
=== Rich hits another home run; I would consider it a grand slam. McConchie knows the demographics. He’s not sharing because he’s throwing out talking points to criticize the Dem maps.===
Glad you caught that and commented as such, wholly concur.
This specifically…
=== Y’all have a large state budget for this sort of thing. Maybe reach out to me and I’ll give you his number?===
The House GOP is $500K deep, alone.
What exactly is that paying for in process?
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 12:00 pm
Is there anything that we should expect our elected reps to do on principle anymore? How did this become the “goo-goos” fault? Apparently politicians get off the hook for anything short of failure to voice opposition to fake “stolen election” claims. I know, that’s how the game is played, yadda, yadda, yadda but if you’re only offering a choice to people of Raunerism/Baileyism vs. artificially gamed elections, the system is deeply broken.
Comment by lake county democrat Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 12:03 pm
“Maybe reach out to me and I’ll give you his number?”
That is some platinum trolling. I love it.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 12:26 pm
Are the goo-goo groups really so stupid not to realize that their ‘allies’, the GOP, will throw them overboard on July 1 and rely on their 50/50 shot with the hat? Even Charlie Brown knows Lucy better.
Comment by Rasselas Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 12:49 pm
=== Is there anything that we should expect our elected reps to do on principle anymore? ===
Whose principles are we expecting them to follow?
The goo-goos are not always acting consistent with the principles I cherish. And with this issue, I’m concerned about keeping a viable Dem elected presence to protect our democracy from the GQP’s pernicious attack.
Comment by Norseman Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 1:06 pm
=== …and targeted by large-scale misinformation campaigns… ===
Who’s paying for these campaigns? Who worked to counteract this misinformation?
However, the US Census reports IL had the 7th best self-response rate in the US.
Seems no one really wants to extend the deadline. Maybe the GOP and the goo-goos are saving up for lawsuits AFTER the new maps are finalized. Perhaps all this noise, currently, is just for publicity. Wonder what the ROI is on for law suits that end up helping fund raising efforts?
Comment by From DaZoo Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 1:56 pm
Capt Fax sez:
Y’all have a large state budget for this sort of thing. Maybe reach out to me and I’ll give you his number?”
The already shed $500K so why give em more?
Comment by Annonin' Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 2:05 pm
Today, Change has been promoting an editorial that compared Democrats to Eastern European dictators that engage in terror campaigns. I guess that’s the kind of talk they pay Madeleine Doubek $150,000 per year to do in her 20 hours of work per week (via the IRS filings).
Comment by Precinct Captain Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 2:48 pm
== Just call it was it is - a partisan power grab.==
Elections have consequences. In the 22 states run by the GQP, it’s the same partisan power grab.
Comment by anon2 Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 3:08 pm
===it’s the same partisan power grab===
Doesn’t make it right.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 3:09 pm
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 12:00 pm:
Considering they were fishing for a data expert during the hearing yesterday, it’s probably lawyers on retainer.
Comment by Precinct Captain Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 3:23 pm