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* From Jeff Berkowitz’s recent interview with Republican gubernatorial candidate Paul Schimpf…
Schimpf: But the other mistake that Governor Pritzker made - and this goes back to the idea that we should have been focusing on either protecting our most vulnerable population and then also making sure that our medical capacity was not overwhelmed - is he used the positivity rate as his metric for deciding whether or not areas were going to be reopened, or whether they were going to have to shut down again. And the positivity rate should not have been the metric that we were using.
Berkowitz: What metric would you have used knowing what you knew in April of 2020?
Schimpf: I would say we needed to focus on the hospitalization rate. How are the are the number of people that are being hospitalized, is that increasing? […]
Berkowitz: And knowing what you knew then, not what you know, when do you suppose you would have made that decision to start relaxing as well started opening?
Schimpf: I wrote that letter and signed that letter in the middle of April.
Schimpf was referring to a letter that he and other Senate Republicans sent Gov. Pritzker on April 15 of last year.
* The claim about the importance of the positivity rate vs. hospitalizations is historically inaccurate. Here’s Dr. Ezike [it actually may have been Gov. Pritzker, but I’d need to go back and listen to make sure] on April 14 of last year…
Perhaps the most accurate leading indicator of our progress is our hospitalization data. Right now, if someone is sick enough with a respiratory illness to need hospital care, then it’s likely that that person has COVID-19, whether or not they have been tested.
On April 6, the number of known COVID patients and suspected COVID patients totaled 3680. On April 10, that number was 4020. On April 11, it was 4104. On April 12 4091. As of today, it was 4283.
Hospitalizations peaked last spring on April 28 at 5,027. Hospitalizations didn’t drop below 4,000 until May 21. They didn’t drop below 3,000 until June 4th - 53 days after Schimpf would’ve let off the brakes.
In other words, Schimpf would’ve eased up on mitigations while his supposedly most important metric was still rapidly increasing and at the tail end of an enormous spike. That clearly would not have ended well.
By the way, IDPH didn’t even include the positivity rate in press releases by mid-April last year (I found that above Ezike/Pritzker quote while looking through media briefing transcripts). I checked with the governor’s office this morning and was told the 7-day average positivity rate last April 15 was 22.7 percent.
So, skyrocketing hospitalizations, huge positivity rate (albeit with low testing numbers) and yet, let’s open it up.
Wonderful.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 10:26 am
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This is like a guy telling you his betting system after the football season is over and how his system would have made you $$$ and you realize he came up with it after the season ended and you still would have lost money.
Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 10:33 am
Well I’m doubling down on not voting for Schimpf, so there.
Comment by PublicServant Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 10:41 am
Looks like Sens. McConchie and Rezin (#1 and #2 Republicans in the Senate) also signed that letter. Do they also think we should have started reopening in April?
Comment by Huh Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 10:46 am
During a public health crisis Schimpf and the GQP have fought with the experts at every step of the way. They followed the lead of a pathological narcissist who was more concerned with his election. That has resulted in excess deaths and illness that has made this great country an embarrassment. Schimpf is not making his case for election, he’s making the argument for his rejection.
Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 10:47 am
Not to worry, that third, well-funded “moderate” Republican, who has yet to raise their hand, will announce their candidacy soon.
Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 11:00 am
Yes, let’s only use a lagging indicator as our key KPI. I’ve been in that business long enough to know you have to have several KPIs to make good decisions. Unfortunately that never makes people happy.
Comment by Publius Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 11:05 am
==we should have been focusing on either protecting our most vulnerable population and then also making sure that our medical capacity was not overwhelmed==
How is it even possible to protect the most vulnerable people while allowing high rates of positivity in the community? Hospitalizations lag behind infections, so that too could have been impossible to control while having high rates of infection.
Comment by AC Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 11:09 am
It’s a mistake to take Schimpf as one concerned first with his own criteria and second to the math of that criteria he feels is his measure.
It’ll be one of these things…
“Voters don’t do nuance”
… but the nuance *is* everything, according to him, and his thoughts… but he’s hoping that there will be no math come full tilt campaign season
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 11:18 am
Here’s my take. And remember, I am not a Shemp fan. Anybody who thinks the pandemic is going to be a viable campaign issue in 2022 is barking up the wrong tree. Police issues, taxes and spending. Keep it simple.
Comment by Blue Dog Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 11:29 am
==we needed to focus on the hospitalization rate.==
Because everyone has health insurance and a community hospital nearby. /S
Comment by Jocko Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 11:29 am
What do you expect from the party that puts politics over science?
Comment by Nobody Sent Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 11:33 am
Years from now people will struggle to understand how a political party declared war on public health science in the interests of serving their national leader. In Illinois the last 12 months have brought out the worst in that party, which used to be known for its moderate approach to governing.
My guess is that political figures who stood up against the tide of know-nothingism will do well in the next round of statewide elections.
Of course, the know-nothings will likely do well at the local level since their voters seem to be all-in on the anti-science stuff.
Comment by Friendly Bob Adams Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 11:38 am
I think Blue Dog is probably right.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 11:45 am
- Anybody who thinks the pandemic is going to be a viable campaign issue in 2022 is barking up the wrong tree. -
Says the guy who predicted Hydroxychloroquine was going to pull us out of the pandemic almost exactly a year ago.
Comment by Excitable Boy Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 11:47 am
Actually it was Remdesivir.
Comment by Blue Dog Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 12:17 pm
Actually it was Remdesivir. Anxiously awaiting phase 3 trials on a Veru drug as well.
Comment by Blue Dog Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 12:18 pm
If the pandemic is the main campaign issue, Pritzker wins in a landslide because his work on this has been generally popular, no matter what a few loudmouth malcontents say on a bus tour or in a blog comment.
Comment by Precinct Captain Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 12:20 pm
- Actually it was Remdesivir. -
Yeah, no:
- Blue Dog Dem - Thursday, Mar 19, 20 @ 2:52 pm:
Unstable. My son, the doctor, told me about chloroquine a week ago. He assured me that would be my prescribed treatment in case of need. He told me that again yesterday. Two weeks. We need everyone to listen to the experts to buy time. We can do it folks.
Comment by Excitable Boy Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 12:21 pm
Excitable.. at the time, hydro was the rage. Followed up by Gileads Remdesivir. Many were prescribed. It is curious to see how this has evolved.. why just two weeks ago 6’ was the accepted social distance. Had you been nicer I would have given you a heads up on Moderna back in early October and you would have made a fortune.
Comment by Blue Dog Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 12:26 pm
“It is curious to see how this has evolved..”
It’s a real shame that you the doctor didn’t get in on the ground floor with bleach injections, you could have made a fortune.
– MrJM
Comment by @misterjayem Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 1:43 pm
Curious @misterjayem. Why do you sign off at the bottom? I do find your comments insightful and thought provoking even if at times they are a bit mean spirited.
Comment by Blue Dog Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 2:14 pm
@BlueDog
=Anybody who thinks the pandemic is going to be a viable campaign issue in 2022 is barking up the wrong tree.=
If the pandemic is still a viable issue in 2022 we are gonna be in a bad way.
Comment by Cool Papa Bell Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 3:01 pm
As things stand today it’s likely in Pritzker’s best interest to make Covid a defining issue in the 2022 race. We’re still going to be dealing with the consequences of anti-vaxxers well into 2022 and for the ILGOP it will create any number of problems. They’ll either be forced to chastise these folks or risk alienating a large portion of the base. I don’t think we’ll quickly forget that the party showed such little regard for science and I doubt Pritzker will let them off the hook for it. As long as his biggest strength is their biggest weakness I wouldn’t expect the issue to go away.
Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 3:11 pm
Pundent. Do you think the pandemic is JBs biggest strength? I for one think he has handled ok. Not great, but not terrible. Is Chicago and the suburbs in compliance? Or like down south here it’s very hit or miss.
Comment by Blue Dog Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 3:32 pm
=Do you think the pandemic is JBs biggest strength?=
I believe it is where it counts and particularly if his opponents are Bailey and/or Schimpf who seem to be battling for the anti-science crowd.
Compliance in and around the Chicago area seems fairly strong to me. Now I may not be the best source of information as I limit my activities. But I can’t recall the last time I went to a store or other indoor establishment and saw someone without a mask.
Elections are all about contrast. The majority of folks in this state seem to trust science. Pritzker’s opponents are appealing to the minority that don’t. It would be foolish for him not to point that out given where most people in this state tend to be on the issue. It’s not that he has to be great on handling the pandemic, he merely has to remind us of how disastrous his opponents would have been. And frankly they seem to be more than willing to do that themselves.
Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 4:05 pm
Pundent -
You should be aware the numbers of those questioning Pritzker mandates and objecting to vaccine demands are growing exponentially among the Democrat ranks. Your bigotry against thoughtful conservatives and Republicans is evident and condemning.
Comment by Conservative in Illinois Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 4:21 pm
=== Democrat ranks===
Your condescending is noted.
You think a Dem voter will see Schimpf as a viable alternative?
That’s fun.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 4:25 pm
=Your bigotry against thoughtful conservatives and Republicans is evident and condemning.=
Sorry. Being thoughtful while simultaneously denying science is incompatible. It’s also the minority view.
Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 4:39 pm
You say rewriting history, like its a bad thing.
Comment by Bruce( no not him) Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 5:44 pm