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* This is my weekly syndicated column from break. It came out a week ago, but I don’t think anything has changed…
I reached out to several Illinois House Democrats who could be considered politically vulnerable in 2022 to ask them how they plan to vote on Speaker Michael J. Madigan’s reelection in January.
With one exception, I didn’t make much headway.
Much has been made about the number of Democratic women who have said they will not vote to reelect the longtime House speaker. That’s true, but it isn’t yet a universal opinion.
Democratic Representative-Elect Suzanne Ness, D-Crystal Lake, may have breezed past GOP Rep. Allen Skillicorn by almost 2,300 votes last month, but her district leans Republican. A remap may not help her all that much (particularly if it’s a “Fair Map” and therefore not drawn with partisan intent) and 2022 will be the midterm election of a Democratic president. Ness ran as a reformer and raised over a million dollars from Madigan’s network. Skillicorn, for whatever weird reasons, barely campaigned and spent almost nothing.
Ness likely won’t get a pass in two years. That January vote on Madigan, therefore, looms large.
“I do not have a statement at this time regarding the election for House speaker,” Ness told me the other day.
A recent House Republican poll showed that 76% of Ness’ district has an unfavorable view of Madigan, with 65% having a “very unfavorable” opinion. Only 12% had a favorable view. The poll, of 716 respondents, was conducted on Dec. 16 by Ogden & Fry.
Janet Yang-Rohr, D-Naperville, defeated GOP Rep. Grant Wehrli by a couple of thousand votes. Her district leans slightly Democratic at the top, but the uncertainties of the coming remap mean that nothing is guaranteed. Yang-Rohr didn’t respond to multiple attempts to reach her about the speaker’s election.
Rep. Katie Stuart, D-Edwardsville, has been the Democrats’ only real and consistent bright spot in the area of the Metro East that has been trending Republican. Stuart defeated a Republican incumbent in 2016, and she has fended off two attempts to unseat her since then. Still, 2022 could be problematic, particularly if mapmakers can’t deliberately pack her district with Democrats who are stuck in soon-to-be-former Rep. Monica Bristow’s district. Stuart also did not respond to an inquiry about her January intentions.
Others who did not respond included Representative-Elect Dave Vella, D-Rockford, who just barely squeaked by Rep. John Cabello, and Representative-Elect Dee Avelar, D-Bolingbrook. Rep. Joyce Mason’s state senator is the crusading reformer Melinda Bush, and Mason, D-Gurnee, shares that senate district with Rep. Sam Yingling, who has said he will not vote to reelect Madigan. Mason has not responded to numerous attempts to ask for whom she’s voting.
Representative-Elect Denise Wang Stoneback, D-Skokie, lives in a liberal Democratic stronghold, so she could face a primary opponent if she votes to reelect Madigan. “Right now I have no comment on this,” Stoneback wrote to me the other day.
Representative-Elect Maura Hirschauer, D-Batavia, also has a strong, albeit less liberal Democratic district. “I do not have a comment at the moment,” she told me.
I got the distinct feeling that at least some of these folks (and plenty of others in that caucus) are hoping everything will work itself out by the second Wednesday in January, which would spare them from have to make such a momentous decision.
As mentioned above, I found one exception.
Rep. Mark Walker, D-Arlington Heights, was asked recently by the Daily Herald how he was voting for House speaker. “We’ll see,” was his initial response.
Walker then praised Madigan for his organizational skills, but the Daily Herald also reported that he claimed public servants must be held to a higher standard.
“I don’t believe he’ll be a viable candidate by January,” Walker then said of Madigan.
The Daily Herald story included no explanation for why Walker said that about Madigan’s viability. So, I called him. Walker said his comment was deliberately designed to send a message to the House Democratic caucus and the sub-caucuses within it, including the Black Caucus.
“Your guy’s not gonna win, come up with an alternative,” is what Walker said he meant.
Whew.
To Walker’s mind, anyway, the 19 public Madigan opponents in the House Democratic caucus are not going to budge. “I think the caucus ought to decide,” Walker said, adding he doesn’t want to see this matter go to the House floor for endless votes.
“I want us to succeed as a caucus because the state absolutely needs it,” he said.
Walker said he also believes that the days of voters not caring about Madigan are over. “I’m afraid that ship has sailed,” he said.
At least somebody said something.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 9:33 am
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Comment by walker Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 9:48 am
Hilarious.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 9:49 am
To the post,
=== To Walker’s mind, anyway, the 19 public Madigan opponents in the House Democratic caucus are not going to budge. ”I think the caucus ought to decide,” Walker said, adding he doesn’t want to see this matter go to the House floor for endless votes.
“I want us to succeed as a caucus because the state absolutely needs it,” he said.===
“…the 19 public Madigan opponents in the House Democratic caucus are not going to budge. … “
This this all things, and every thing.
I’m not convinced by any measure the 19 are blushing anytime soon, and they don’t need to have a candidate to stay united
Madigan prolly needs SIX to EIGHT of the 19 to break AND get every other vote on the table.
It’s time for first a realization… “and now it’s over”… and second a planning to find someone with 60… and not revisiting the first part.
That ship sailed too.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 9:56 am
“Your guy’s not gonna win”
Reality. Get over it, and move on. Your wants and needs are irrelevant.
Some people simply can’t face facts.
Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 10:01 am
“The 19 public Madigan opponents in the House Democratic caucus are not going to budge”
At the Battle of Julu, Xiang Yu’s army fording a great river to confront his enemy, the Qin.
Upon landfall, Xiang Yu ordered his men, “Break the kettles and sink the boats‼”
By destroying all means of re-crossing, he committed himself and his army to a final battle to the finish.
The 19 have smashed their kettles and sunk their boats.
– MrJM
Comment by @misterjayem Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 10:07 am
I agree with Rep. Walker 100% (is he the same person as our poster “Walker”?).
The democrats need to move on from Madigan.
Comment by JS Mill Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 10:07 am
Rep. Walker is my rep. He’ll get my vote next time. Speaking truth to power, he seems to be the only (right now) adult in the room of quibbling (and short sighted) D’s who can’t seem to think strategically (long term) v. tactically (short term and selfishly).
That’s leadership. Nice job Mark! Many thanks.
Comment by northernwatersports Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 10:16 am
MJM is done. The new year makes no difference, and the various groups advocating for him also don’t change the calculation. He has lots of votes, just not 60. The 19 are making a clear social/political statement by opposing him - and no MJM wrangling will change that. You can look at this 7 ways Sunday and it all come up the same - he is done.
Comment by Donnie Elgin Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 10:37 am
agree with JS Mill, is Rep. Walker our Walker here? because both are quite even handed and nice in their approach, and comments. which or whatever, thank you, Walker for the kind recent post.
Comment by Amalia Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 10:58 am
“to send a message to the House Democratic caucus and the sub-caucuses within it, including the Black Caucus.”
The sub-caucus message is clear as well can you meet or exceed what Madigan is offering us. Who can deliver for them to get them to switch. This is when the stalemate ends.
Comment by 1st Ward Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 11:35 am
=== This is when the stalemate ends.===
No.
The stalemate ends when those “not in the 19” realize the 19 ain’t flipping back. Nope. No.
Being in denial does not make a stalemate, with respect.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 11:48 am
Walk is the Walk who Walks the Walk. Being that honest is like dancing on a tightrope. But he does it, talks it and walks it. Be the whisperer to the 19. That pressure hasn’t even begun yet. Not in earnest yet.
Comment by A Guy Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 12:19 pm
=== That pressure hasn’t even begun yet. Not in earnest yet.===
(Sigh)
Who is going to flip?
No.
Which 6-7 are flipping?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 12:21 pm
==Which 6-7 are flipping?==
TBA. Or not. Do you know who won’t? For sure?
No.
The toy box and torture chest haven’t been opened yet. Until it’s time, no one knows.
Comment by A Guy Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 12:31 pm
(Sigh)
Comment by A Guy Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 12:32 pm
=== Or not. Do you know who won’t?===
That’s not an adult argument.
The 19 put pen to paper on one document, they all signed, that they are unified.
You think they did that… easily?
Unless you can show, like an adult, which of the 19 will go back, especially after signing a paper with 18 others to hang together…
That’s right. You can’t.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 12:34 pm
which of the 19 will go back
It’s high stakes Chicken.
Both the Black and Latinx caucus said they back MJM. How can they go back?
How can a candidate emerge that wasn’t at the two meetings each one held?
Do they come together on the other candidate?
Comment by Fav Human Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 1:27 pm
=== It’s high stakes Chicken.===
It’s really not.
The Black Caucus and Latinx Caucus still can’t get 60 for Madigan.
How is it a chicken thing for those two caucuses? The 19 only agree, “no Madigan”
Math is funny that way.
With respect.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 1:32 pm
Walker’s courageous statement is like the little boy who said the emperor has no clothes. It’s reality, like it or not.
Comment by anon2 Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 1:36 pm
Amalia: You’re welcome. As a Cottager, I feel your Gunner pain.
Comment by walker Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 1:42 pm
@ Walker, yes, much Gunner pain, though great results lately. You have the most dear grounds in the Premier League. And I would put Scott Parker in a fashion off with Mikel Arteta, two best at that in the League. to those who find this conversation confusing, your Saturday mornings will be better if you follow English football.
Comment by Amalia Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 2:32 pm
So, let’s say the 19 stand tall on their “no, no, never, never…”
Can Rep. Kifowit scrounge up the 41 she would need (assuming she gets all 19)? And how does she do that without breaking the ILBC?
Comment by From the far, far western suburbs Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 2:57 pm
=== Can Rep. Kifowit===
The trend is not her friend, that’s about it.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 2:59 pm
==Rep. Katie Stuart, D-Edwardsville, has been the Democrats’ only real and consistent bright spot in the area of the Metro East that has been trending Republican. Stuart defeated a Republican incumbent in 2016, and she has fended off two attempts to unseat her since then. Still, 2022 could be problematic, particularly if mapmakers can’t deliberately pack her district with Democrats who are stuck in soon-to-be-former Rep. Monica Bristow’s district==
I wouldn’t rule out the remappers trying to give Bristow another chance in the remap. By simply mapping out Rep-elect Amy Elik from that district, especially since she lives in Fosterburg. Fosterburg is in very close proximity to the current 95th (Bourne of Raymond) and the 100th (Davidsmeyer from Jacksonville). I wouldn’t rule out Elik’s Fosterburg being remapped with Bourne or even Davidsmeyer’s district.
Comment by Essential State Employee Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 5:49 pm
===I wouldn’t rule out the remappers===
Which remappers?
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jan 4, 21 @ 7:32 pm