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* It looks like we hit our peak positivity rate right around November 13th…
The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from November 6 – November 12 is 13.2%. The preliminary seven-day statewide test positivity from November 6, 2020 – November 12, 2020 is 14.5%.
And then it plateaued for several days.
The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from November 10 – November 16, 2020 is 12.5%. The preliminary seven-day statewide test positivity from November 10 – November 16, 2020 is 14.5%.
* Also on November 17th…
Public Health Officials Announce Tier Three Resurgence Mitigations to Take Effect Statewide on Friday Following Sharp Increase in COVID-19 Cases
* After a bit, the positivity rate began to fall…
The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from November 22 – November 28, 2020 is 10.1%. The preliminary seven-day statewide test positivity from November 22 – November 28, 2020 is 12.1%.
* Yesterday…
The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from December 6 – December 12, 2020 is 9.1%. The preliminary seven-day statewide test positivity from December 6 – December 12, 2020 is 10.6%.
* Hospitalizations are also starting to fall. Let’s go back to November 13th…
As of last night, 5,362 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 990 patients were in the ICU and 488 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.
As of last night, 5,858 in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 1,185 patients were in the ICU and 723 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.
Remember that hospitalizations, ICU patients and vented patients are all lagging indicators of cases and then one another.
* Yesterday…
As of last night, 5,073 in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 1,080 patients were in the ICU and 612 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.
* Mitigations work, plain and simple…
So MI: cases are down 15%, hospitalizations up 29%
OH: cases are up 79%, hospitalizations up 76%
And you know that deaths will follow in the following couple of weeks
In fact, let's look at the picture, which tells the story perfectly
OH vs MI through December 11 pic.twitter.com/sY2svMT0PP
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) December 12, 2020
…Adding… Click the pics for larger images from Hannah Meisel, but you can see we have a long way to go to get back to early October and its 4.5 percent average positivity rates…
Same goes for hospital bed usage…
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 2:35 am
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Looking forward to latest numbers later today. Hopefully we continue to downward trend.
Comment by Matt from Lincoln Park Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 3:18 am
Yeah, I hope we are.
Comment by Dutch Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 5:19 am
Science - nuff said.
Comment by PublicServant Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 6:47 am
My 74 yo cousin passed away from Covid yesterday…so sad…
It’s gonna be a long winter…
Comment by Loop Lady Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 7:17 am
Great news.
Only problem is hacks like Greg Bishop will be citing this as a reason to re-open restaurants, bars, schools, etc.
Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 7:19 am
Story is from 12-9-2020, but information is eye-opening. Keep in mind, the counties with No Data tend to be smaller and may or may not have a hospital. Those that do, are most likely sending their COVID-19 patients to a larger hospital nearby-
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/12/09/944379919/new-data-reveal-which-hospitals-are-dangerously-full-is-yours#res944380257
Comment by Anon221 Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 7:41 am
As of yesterday, Region 6 (and only Region 6) meets all the criteria for moving back to Tier 2. It will be interesting to see what happens. I don’t know that I think we should reopen things, but on the other hand, not honoring the benchmarks that have been set would be a bit of a slap in the face.
Comment by KSDinCU Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 7:56 am
And hacks like me will also probably soon be pointing out the City of Chicago Region 11 metrics are stadily improving. And that Chicago should soon be at the point where Governor Pritzker’s Restore Illinois - objective, metric driven, and long announced framework - allow indoor service so what’s the hold up?
Though looks like Region 6 and far north suburban Region 9 will beat Chicago to the reopening metrics even sooner.
Comment by ChicagoBars Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 8:04 am
Yes, Region 9 has good numbers. Actually Lake’s numbers are Tier 2 worthy, but McHenry’s are not. Unfortunately, I have no confidence that once these regions achieve the goals that they will be rewarded.
Comment by Seven Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 8:18 am
What happened to the Thanksgiving surge that the science and models and public health experts and Jay. Bob told us was coming?
Comment by Captain Obvious Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 8:20 am
What happend to the Thanksgiving surge?
In a number of places, it happened.
Maybe, just maybe Illinois’ restrictions helped curb them.
But then you would have to acknowledge that fact, and that isn’t going to happen, now is it?
Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 8:36 am
==Mitigations work, plain and simple…==
That’s not what Amy, DeVore and Bailey say. So who’s lying? /S
Comment by don the legend Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 8:39 am
Mitigations work, plain and simple…
Add Captain Obvious to that trio of big brains I just listed.
Comment by don the legend Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 8:40 am
===…that the science and models and public health experts…===
You know you’re a lemming to your own narrative if you can’t accept that restrictions are also helpful when in place, as - Flyin’ Elvis’-Utah Chapter - points out.
Also… sounds like you’re cheering *against* healthy people, but look forward to greater infection so you can blame someone.
That’s probably not a healthy way to look at life in general, but that’s your M.O. and it’s on brand for you.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 8:42 am
Okay, but what does COVID expert Dan Proft have to say?
Comment by northside reformer Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 8:48 am
With the expected Christmas holiday surge likely, any loosening of restrictions now could extenuate the spike. I see that potentially weighing against a decision to go to tier 2 right now.
Comment by PublicServant Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 8:55 am
great information presentation. hoping this is working. and today with vaccines traveling towards frontline healthcare workers, another sign of hope. mask up, social distance, wash your hands.
Comment by Amalia Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 8:55 am
My heart breaks for the restaurant owners and their employees but mitigations work.
Comment by Centennial Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 9:01 am
* With the expected Christmas holiday surge likely *
Except it didn’t happen for Thanksgiving, why would it happen for Christmas?
Comment by Cube Dweller No More Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 9:03 am
=Jay. Bob told us was coming?=
Sick burn./s
Don John told us it would magically disappear. Since then almost 300,000 have died. What happened?
Comment by JS Mill Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 9:12 am
The feds need to provide the funds to keep bars and restaurants, and their employees, going, until this pandemic is brought to heel.
There’s no safe way for them to be open for indoor dining. Too much risk with dodgy ventilation systems and customers/employees not following the rules.
The ire needs to be focused on the federal government and the governor’s highly-paid brain trust ought to be asking him to REPEATEDLY emphasize that message, rather than occasionally mention it. All Democrats should be doing the same. He’s unfairly wearing the jacket for being against restaurants and bars.
Comment by Moe Berg Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 9:14 am
I hope what appears to be a plateau isn’t a repeat of the plateau that started in mid August and ran through the first week of October. Mid October was when cases started to rise again.
Comment by Huh? Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 9:27 am
So where is the gratitude to the Governor for making the hard call? Also, based on this I would keep this in place to at least Jan 4 to get past Christmas and New Year’s. Then slowly start pulling back as the vaccine becomes available. Also, unlike a lot of other countries we are not making direct payments to individuals and businesses that would go a long way to help people who cannot work. We need to skip making people go thru un-employment.
Comment by Publius Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 9:35 am
===What happend to the Thanksgiving surge?===
We’re looking at statewide data. The implementation of Covid-19 mitigation efforts has not been uniform across the state. I also have a hunch that the decision to avoid Thanksgiving holiday travel was not uniform across the state.
At a state wide level, we may not be able to spot a “post Thanksgiving surge” but on a county level, there does seem to be some indication that in some counties that things are a bit worse now than they were previously.
A “post thanksgiving surge” might also be offset by the impact of better local adherence to mitigation strategies. Hence, our number are higher than they otherwise would be but our over all statistics went down.
There are also factors that can influence the post Thanksgiving surge appearing in testing, which might later appear in hospitalizations, but coming to the conclusion that there was no “post thanksgiving surge” is ridiculous because you don’t know what that would look like in the data, and are assuming that it should be interpreted as higher statewide cases when it may not show up that way.
If your next conclusion is “since there was no post Thanksgiving surge, lets get together for Christmas” it would seem that you’re set to change the tone of the season of hope, joy, peace, and love to something as dark as the night sky that drove our Pagan ancestors to find things to celebrate this time of year in the first place.
Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 9:45 am
=== Except it didn’t happen for Thanksgiving, why would it happen for Christmas? ===
To many people are dead or dying of covid for you to attempt to spread that type of disinformation. Below are my sources. There are many others. Where are yours?
https://tinyurl.com/y34e2cyk
https://tinyurl.com/y2lcsvce
https://tinyurl.com/y4fo26fm
Comment by PublicServant Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 10:01 am
“What happened to the Thanksgiving surge that the science and models and public health experts and Jay. Bob told us was coming?”
Dude, have you been awake at all in the last few weeks? That must have been one heck of a bender.
Comment by Lt Guv Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 10:03 am
Wishful thinking.
Fauci says we will start to see a rise in cases this week as a result of Thanksgiving.
Mitigations are a lagging indicator. The triggers are set so high, by the time Pritzker puts the mitigations in place, there is already obvious community spread, and people have begun to mitigate their own behavior.
The people who are going to blindly gather in the face of all of that danger are sill doing it, as evidenced by the 300 person wedding.
Comment by Thomas Paine Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 10:07 am
@Cube Dweller No More -
To many people are dead or dying of covid for you to attempt to spread that type of disinformation. Below are my sources. There are many others. Where are yours?
https://tinyurl.com/y34e2cyk
https://tinyurl.com/y2lcsvce
https://tinyurl.com/y4fo26fm
Comment by PublicServant Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 10:07 am
Huh? - I’m thinking this may be more like the ramp up, plateau, and slow downward trend we saw in April and May. The positivity numbers don’t lend themselves to a comparison in the spring because testing was inadequate then. Hospitalization curves may be a better gauge.
Comment by muon Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 10:08 am
If I hear one more CNN reporter use the term “de-thaw,” I will lose it. If you’re “de-thawing” something, you’re actually freezing it again, right?
Comment by Southern Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 10:08 am
Both my children have it. They are young and healthy, and seem to be doing okay. But this is a scary time.
Comment by Soccermom Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 10:21 am
Sorry for the double post. Really bad lag in this thread for some reason.
Comment by PublicServant Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 10:34 am
The fate of many peoples health, lives, livelihoods and businesses are in the balance. We have from now until about March 15th. The feds need to step up biggly and prop up the business community, laid off employees, states, cities and citizens.
The rest of us need to keep up the mitigations, look forward to Tier 2 in a few weeks and keep doing our level best to remain healthy and stop the spread.
Comment by Cool Papa Bell Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 10:39 am
Wisconsin also appears to have hit its peak in mid November.
Which mitigation worked there?
Be specific.
Comment by JB13 Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 10:41 am
* Where are yours? *
IDPH numbers posted on this blog every day.
The hospital data I deal with every day at work. For us, the week before Thanksgiving was a lot worse than now.
Comment by Cube Dweller No More Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 11:21 am
- JB13 - Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 10:41 am:
=== Wisconsin also appears to have hit its peak in mid November.
Which mitigation worked there? ===
Google is your friend (unless you’re just looking for a drive-by comment): https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/community.htm
Comment by olddog Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 11:23 am
Anecdotally I know of one family with three COVID cases from a Thanksgiving get together. Another couple were saved when their host cancelled due to fever. Host then tested positive.
There are a lot of interactions at play. I hope caution prevails and cases decline. But I expect to be self quarantined till July.
Comment by Last Bull Moose Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 11:50 am
=== IDPH numbers posted on this blog every day.
The hospital data I deal with every day at work. For us, the week before Thanksgiving was a lot worse than now. ===
Great. Mitigation worked in Illinois. Thank JB for that. Let’s keep it going, or we’ll have a Christmas surge.
Comment by PublicServant Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 11:52 am
===Except it didn’t happen for Thanksgiving, why would it happen for Christmas? ===
You cannot possibly be this stupid.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 12:45 pm
Illinois and 7 other less restricted MW states peaked mid November. Illinois peaked 11/16 and started trending downward. The mitigation that went into effect 11/20 caused this?
https://imgur.com/gallery/Am1gkDu
Comment by RH909 Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 1:42 pm
* You cannot possibly be this stupid. *
wow.
Comment by Cube Dweller No More Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 2:44 pm