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* I kept meaning to post this all day and kept forgetting. Sorry…
Help or hurt? https://t.co/d8ZmOLHtJa
— Rich Miller (@capitolfax) October 21, 2020
Don’t forget to explain, and take a deep breath or five before commenting, please.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 4:26 pm
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Previous Post: *** UPDATED x1 *** Additional mitigations announced for Region 1
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Hurt, Underwood got elected in an anti-Trump wave don’t imagine the district is now all of the sudden Pro-Trump.
Comment by Frank talks Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 4:33 pm
Hurts, probably hurt the pocketbook too. How much do you think was deposited in a Trump SuperPAC to get that Tweet?
Comment by AndyJD Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 4:34 pm
I think this helps. Oberweiss has to get the Trump supporters to turn out. Trump supporters know he has no chance to win the state. So why vote? Vote to help him in Congress and hope he wins in enough other states.
Comment by Last Bull Moose Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 4:35 pm
It helps with constituents Oberweis needs no help with. But the Trump vote was never in doubt. If you’re pro Trump you’re pro Oberweis. The problem is the makeup of the district. Their just aren’t enough folks that share that view. Hultgren didn’t lose because he wasn’t conservative enough. He lost because he was seen as no longer being a moderate voice largely because he went silence.
Comment by Pundent Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 4:38 pm
Hurts. 99.9% of Trump voters will already be voting for Oberweis. Any sliver of undecideds will be turned off by this.
Comment by Lt Guv Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 4:38 pm
It helps if Oberweis has polling data that shows Trump is leading in the district and Oberweis is a few points behind Trump’s number.
Comment by Roman Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 4:47 pm
If the election were held today, I think it would hurt. Come election day this will be old news, so I think its a non-issue. I don’t believe Oberweis has any real shot of winning that district anyways. Ultimately this hurt, but I can’t imagine it will put him down much more than he already is.
Comment by HotSauce Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 4:48 pm
At first, I thought it was a link to the Lauzen endorsement and wanted to say ‘Only about 10 years too late’…
To the question, the district did go Trump 4 years ago and she has been running ads that mention Trump signed legislation she sponsored. I have not seen a single ad of hers that says anything bad about Trump, my thought is this is a positive for Jim.
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 4:50 pm
Yikes. Instead of orange creamsicle that’s an orange nightmare.
Comment by Way down yonder Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 4:54 pm
I don’t know the answer but the Oberweis campaign must believe it will help or they would not have had Trump endorse him.
Comment by Responsa Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 4:55 pm
Maybe not much if the cake is already baked. If healthcare concerns mean anything this year as they should, looking at the 2018 election, then it could hurt. Trump is dying to get rid of the ACA.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 4:57 pm
Likely it helps Underwood. Chopper Jim already done. Might help other down ballot Ds.
Comment by Annonin' Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 5:00 pm
Minor help-I think most of the anti-Trump vote probably isn’t a fan of Oberweis. The pro-Trump low information voters might bother to go down ballot with this endorsement if they see it.
I think Oberweis missed a great opportunity to get Stephen Miller in a helicopter with some sniper rifles though. “This is Jim Oberweis and Stephen Miller here showing you how easy it is to reduce illegal immigration…”
Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 5:04 pm
It hurts.
Underwood won in the midterm, and in beating Hultgren, no matter how you rate his (Hultgren’s) lack-luster attempt at re-elect, the Trump feelings in that district still didn’t carry the day.
The perennial candidacy that is is the Oberweis brand isn’t helped by Trump and Trump’s own racist views.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 5:07 pm
Hurts. Because Trump is less liked than he was before.
Comment by Amalia Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 5:24 pm
I just want to laugh like the green shirt guy. ETTD. This endorsement will not help.
Comment by Glengarry Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 5:25 pm
Trump won a this district by 3.9% in 2016
Why do you think it is impossible a Republican wins this district that was held by Denny Hastert for 30 years and is currently held by a liberal Democrat?
Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 5:34 pm
Helps. I think it humanizes the President in a way that can only help him in this district. Makes it seem like he actually knows where this district is, and maybe what kind of people live there. I’m sure he couldn’t find it on a map, but hey, Oberweis has an R after his name, wants to punish immigrants, will vote for lower taxes and ending healthcare. They are kindred spirits. This helps Trump.
It doesn’t really do much for Oberwies tho. Seriously, how many possible Trump-Underwood voters could there be in this district?
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 5:43 pm
Trump is going to HURT the entire Republican ticket from the top to the bottom, because no Illinois Republicans have called out this terrible President
Comment by Former Mayor Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 6:10 pm
“I don’t know the answer but the Oberweis campaign must believe it will help or they would not have had Trump endorse him.”
Eh, I suspect the calculation was 99% for Oberweis’s ego, and 1% for electoral purposes.
Comment by btw Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 6:12 pm
On the one hand, it wouldn’t help Oberweis much, if any, with undecided voters at this point. On the other hand, if it motivates Trump supporters to turn out instead of staying home since they know their Presidential vote won’t matter in Illinois, it could help Jim.
I’m convinced this entire election, at the national level, is all going to be about turnout. Nationally in the 2016 election, 44.5% of voters did not vote. IF a portion of that group shows up, THEY will be the deciding factor in this election.
Comment by RNUG Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 6:12 pm
Does not do much good or bad for Oberweis unless folks who know nothing about him see the tweet and suddenly learn that Oberwies is essentially Trump without a megaphone.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 6:14 pm
They ask for civility on the board here but does not always happen. I guess it depends on how one takes comments.
Comment by cler dcn Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 6:16 pm
Trump’s helicoptering into the district?
==The perennial candidacy that is is the Oberweis brand isn’t helped by Trump and Trump’s own racist views.==
Well, it’s not as if xenophobia is a break from the Oberweis brand. If Trump can get his volk to the polls, that will help….the question is if he gets those repelled by his rhetoric to turn out as well.
Comment by Rich Hill Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 6:18 pm
Well I’ll tell you how the Trump GOP platform influenced me, as an independent. I voted for Democrats up and down the ballot. Didn’t matter what the race was. Sorry Coroner, sorry States Attorney. If the party platform is going to be whatever Trump wants then the party will have to deal with those consequences up and down the ballot.
Comment by Pundent Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 6:33 pm
Help or hurt?
It helps my stomach hurt from laughing so hard. He’s losing this race by 10+ points either way.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 6:51 pm
I wish politicians wouldn’t use the term “Law & Order.” It brings back negative flashbacks for me to 2010. NBC should never have cancelled the original show. Sam Waterston was great and they should have been allowed one last season. NBC could have promoted it greatly and it would have beat Gunsmoke for longest running TV drama. But, and to be Illinois centric, it did allow for all of the Chicago based dramas now on NBC.
Comment by Dutch Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 6:53 pm
Could be worse.
Could be an endorsement from Blagojevich.
Comment by Proud Papa Bear Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 7:28 pm
Beware of segments of society that have to be warned by strangers to “take a breath” so that their response is less emotional and irrational.
Comment by BestWestern Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 8:32 pm
===Beware===
Be thankful.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Oct 22, 20 @ 9:19 pm