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* Greg Hinz…
After a long stretch in which Pritzker had appeared to hold the upper hand on the tax amendment, its outcome now may be in jeopardy. The combination of a news cycle that has turned against him with a relentless focus on corruption allegations involving Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan and an all-out campaign against the tax that sort of constitutes Bruce Rauner’s revenge has Team Pritzker a bit back on its heels, whether it wants to admit it or not.
The latest polling made available to me by a reliable source shows the amendment’s fate is now very uncertain. Support for the proposition is less than the 60 percent that would guarantee its approval as a stand-along proposition, but more than the 50 percent that would allow it to pass under a different rule that enacts any amendment backed by more than half of those who turn out for the election.
I think it’s always been somewhat in that range, but closer to the 60 mark early on. The governor didn’t start out with much of a cushion, put it that way.
* The Question: What’s your gut telling you on the passage of the graduated income tax? Explain.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 2:53 pm
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
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My gut tells me that in a Presidential year many who show up to the polls are going to vote for President, maybe a few more offices, and that’s it, and 60 will be the needed number. But it’s a tough and weird formula to predict.
Comment by fs Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 2:58 pm
My gut is telling me one way or another, Illinois is getting a tax increase. As for the amendment, I fear the opposition to it passage has successfully painted it as just one more thing that Mike Madigan wants to do to get your money.
Comment by Morningstar Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 2:59 pm
My gut says this is one more in a long list of uncertainties that 2020 has given us…my gut has given up on providing any intuitive guidance. My gut now requests an edible and refuses to provide any other useful information.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:03 pm
I think it will pass. Just look at what party the people keep electing. They want more.
Comment by DuPage Dan Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:03 pm
It won’t pass because people will vote against their own best interest. They will refuse to believe that the state needs more revenue. They will continue to claim waste and fraud.
The result… after election day, an 11pm bill will pass to raise the flat tax rate and will quickly be signed. It’s either one or the other. No other choice.
Comment by thoughts matter Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:05 pm
I think it will just barely pass with 51% or 52% as the Democratic majority will push it across the finish line. There is a deep distrust of government by the voters and the anti-Fair Tax message of ‘you can’t trust Springfield with more of your money’ is resonating with a lot of people. Facts seem to matter less and less.
Comment by Cubs in '16 Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:05 pm
I don’t think it will pass. It will be defeated in the Chicago suburbs.
Comment by Powdered Whig Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:06 pm
My gut tells me it’s in trouble. As I posted in a different thread, messaging on the “no” side of any issue is always easier, but even given that, the opponents of the Fair Tax have done a better job. Their paid media (though filled with red herrings and half truths) has been better. And the lawsuit the IPI filed yesterday successfully got the “retirement tax” widespread media coverage. It’s a horrific legal argument— so thin the attorneys should be sanctioned. But it was a master stroke in political theatre.
Comment by Roman Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:07 pm
My gut says it will get more than 50% and probably not 60%.
Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:08 pm
It is in trouble. Confusion generally equals “no” votes and major confusion has been sewn.
Comment by Hello Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:11 pm
Leaning no, and the ad messaging might be giving a clue, from 97% will pay the same or less, to the threat of a flat tax hike to now 97% will get a tax cut.
But we do know that a flat tax hike is likely, and that’s good to know now. That message needs to continue. A lot of people are going to have to look in the mirror for blame when that likely happens.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:15 pm
I’m not optimistic of its passage and it’s unfortunate because it was a squandered opportunity. The money was there to soak the message in that 97% would not see a tax increase and if the amendment failed we’d all be paying more. Now the fair tax is on defensive having to respond to the opposition message instead of making a closing argument.
Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:15 pm
The tax amendment requires some effort to understand and a level of voter trust that probably doesn’t exist. That makes it a tough sell in volatile conditions. Resentment over Pritzker’s aggressive pandemic actions and the unfolding Madigan scandal don’t make the climate any healthier for passing the amendment. Plus Pritzker’s team has not done a good sales job while the oppo has come on strong lately.
My gut tells me the amendment falls well short of 60, probably in the low 50s. Thus it could pass through the back door.
Comment by Flapdoodle Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:17 pm
My gut says it will fail. Seniors vote in big numbers and they (along with most) don’t do nuance. In their minds it’s a tax increase to vote yes.
Comment by don the legend Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:17 pm
I think the message of “this is the worst possible time” has some traction, even if I don’t agree with it. Between that and the low-information voters who believe the “now they’ll tax retirement” ads, I fear it will fail.
Comment by Grimlock Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:18 pm
It gets smoked and is not even close. Talk to the general public and they don’t trust any politicians (Dems or GOP).
Comment by 4 percent Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:22 pm
It’s still early, but I think it will pass.
Of course, if the opponents are successful in making a voter decision based on whether or not to give the General Assembly and this Governor 3.7 Billion dollars of more taxpayers money then the CA will be in real trouble.
Pritzker’s creditability based on his refusal to release a set of his own tax returns puts him in the same bucket in terms of tax issues as Trump- - which is not a good place to be.
Hoping people will look at the soundness of this idea rather than the record of the folks pushing it.
Comment by Back to the Future Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:24 pm
My gut says it will pass. The proponent’s task is to motivate somewhat 97% of the voters, while the opponent’s task is to really, strongly motivate 3% of the voters. I don’t think the math is in the opponent’s favor.
Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:25 pm
Living in a sea of red, it’s hard to get a good read on it. I think it stands a chance.
Comment by Skeptic Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:26 pm
Too close to call. Won’t get 60%. May squeak through at 50 %.
Trust for government is at an all time low. That drives down the yes vote.
Comment by Last Bull Moose Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:26 pm
Don - it is a tax increase if you vote yes. That is a 100% true statement. And smart people know it will not take long before it’s an even bigger tax increase when they come after lower levels of income shortly after it passes. Better to make them bite the bullet and have to make everyone angry. To answer the question, I hope it fails but I think there are enough low information voters out there to inch it over the line.
Comment by Captain Obvious Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:28 pm
I fear that it will fall short. But, couldn’t something similar be accomplished simply by raising the flat tax rate and greatly increasing the exemption amounts?
Comment by Andy S. Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:29 pm
My guess is it fails. There’s too much uncertainty out there, and just seeing “taxes” on the ballot will prompt enough voters to vote no and defeat it. (And I’m saying that as a yes vote, myself.)
Comment by The Drummer Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:30 pm
I think it barely goes through the 50% of total voters threshold to pass.
Comment by Justin Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:33 pm
===Talk to the general public===
Unless you’re a pollster or have data, please speak for yourself and only yourself here.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:37 pm
As long as your state treasurer says he can’t wait to start taxing retirement income…..you got big problems.
Comment by Joe Schmoe Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:38 pm
Many are naturally suspicious of this amendment.
Right now the spending for it is overwhelming. I was watching a history on the Sumerians on YouTube and there was an ad for it. It’s all over YouTube.
I get flyers from the AFT for it. It’s everywhere.
IF the Republicans have a massive campaign in the media against it stressing its vagueness, ‘marriage penalty’ aspects and lack of inflation adjustment then the tide could really turn and it might be defeated.
If they don’t do this and fast. ?????
Comment by Unconventionalwisdom Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:39 pm
My gut tells me it’s up in the air, but maybe that’s because I live in the Bloc.
And I’ve got news for anyone thinking the ammendment is a tax increase: you’re taxes will definitely go up if it doesn’t pass. Maybe just read the ammendment. I have yet to hear one valid argument against it.
Comment by Don't Bloc Me In Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:40 pm
Close. Could go either way. Opponents have had some success with blank check, retirement income, small businesses, etc.
I expect a huge turn out, but that’s no guarantee either. This is a down ballot issue which will require lots of voters, especially in cook county, to get it across the finish line.
I talked to a friend who has farm income, and would probably be affected in the first range of increase. No argument really seemed to have any traction. She just doesn’t trust government, especially concerning taxes, and will vote no.
Comment by Langhorne Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:40 pm
my gut is often wrong on elections
Comment by walker Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:40 pm
My gut tells me the progressive tax proponents have been running too much of a top down effort out of Chicago and not enough out in the regions of Illinois that will decide this. Throwing lots of money at this, without the creative effort around the state to persuade undecideds. There’s still time, but they have to hustle.
Comment by west wing Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:40 pm
To the post,
My gut needs to first see this. This is the real. This is what my gut has to consider;
=== Support for the proposition is less than the 60 percent that would guarantee its approval as a stand-along proposition, but more than the 50 percent that would allow it to pass under a different rule that enacts any amendment backed by more than half of those who turn out for the election.===
I had this at 2 in 5 passing at Jump Street. While polling has/d been within the window of passage, it’s real tough to pass a constitutional amendment under the parameters.
Lately, I’ve be more 1 in 3.
That’s not a slam or a “snarky slight” at the pro-amendment Crew. Not in the least.
I’ve said many times, they’ve had weeks and weeks and weeks… and $50 million parked, and the playing field during a pandemic when everyone was home watching TV… June, July, August… usually bad TV months, lots of folks home… and pain, lots of pain, the halves and have nots, the rich billionaires like Amazon versus the family where both parents (or a single parent) out of work, the chance to saturate “97% won’t see an increase” is now lost, and the money advantage is lost too.
But… “here’s the thing”;
My comment from yesterday…
=== - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 5, 20 @ 1:36 pm
…
My hunch?
The formula(s) for passage are relying on a coupe of variables and within those various variables, even a “beauty contest” snapshot isn’t honest to what’s needed for passage.
The opponents need to sow negativity. If their numbers jived, we’d see those.
Proponents need “an inside straight“ to get this to pass… predicated on how much they bet and how much the people watching this “Texas Hold ‘Em” like the outcome of the hand for them and their families.
That’s how crazy this is to passage.===
“Will a huge turnout, like 2+ million VBMs (today and growing) and early voting be enough to get that insider straight?”
Ever watch ESPN’s “Texas Hold Em” coverage?
They give a percentage of the likelyhood of a winning hand.
I see the hand, right now, at 33% of a chance at passage.
The river card might be enough of that inside straight coming in.
I see it passing, but not by any ease or metric that shows ease in it.
Post Morten? Yikes, the weeks wasted, but…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:43 pm
Down in flames, no one trusts Illinois pols.
Comment by Rutro Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:44 pm
We’ll remain consistent and will therefore fail, as passing it is the right thing to do.
Comment by Lt Guv Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:44 pm
I think it falls short.
Illinoisans love to complain about how things are but won’t support a structural change to fix them.
Comment by Proud Papa Bear Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:47 pm
“no one trusts Illinois pols.” No one?
Comment by Skeptic Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:48 pm
My gut tells me it will fail. (Note: My gut has bleep for brains.) I feel like the Frerichs blunder and general fear of Ken Griffin and all the other rich guys moving to Florida will be just enough to carry the day.
Comment by SAP Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:52 pm
The confusion will keep voting lower than the president and it will be close but lose. Then when big budget cuts start to be seriously discussed people will get upset because the cuts will be ‘unfair’ for their personal needs. The loudest complainers will blame Pritzker but be unwilling to specifically say how much should be cut and from where. It will be dejavu again and again.
Comment by zatoichi Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:53 pm
I think it will fail. I also think, while many will believe this is an unfair statement, that we need a constitutional amendment to address the pension formula that is causing much, but not all, of the states fiscal crisis.
Comment by John Lee Pettimore, III Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:55 pm
My gut tells me that the same voters who gave us Pat Quinn vs Bill Brady will give us tax status quo even as they gnash their teeth and pound their chests demanding change in Illinois and then will spend the next few years complaining that all these programs they use and support don’t have more resources.
Comment by Leigh John-Ella Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:55 pm
My gut tells me it won’t pass. Too many will believe the tax increase scenarios. The 97% that won’t get an increase won’t believe that it doesn’t affect them.
Comment by Bruce( no not him) Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:56 pm
My gut tells me it falls short,the no narrative has so far done a better job. Waiting for the ( its for the children) ads
Comment by 14th ward Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:58 pm
My gut tells me the people who vote against this will be quite ticked when they discover their taxes are going up to cover Ken Griffin’s tax break.
Comment by Dance Band on the Titanic Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:00 pm
I think the amendment is going down, because of the misinformation out there about it. People think that the GA can’t raise their taxes without voter approval, even though they’ve done it twice in recent memory.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:02 pm
- John Lee Pettimore, III - Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:55 pm:
=I think it will fail. I also think, while many will believe this is an unfair statement, that we need a constitutional amendment to address the pension formula that is causing much, but not all, of the states fiscal crisis.=
Why do you not target Medicaid? It is bigger than the pensions. And the pension formula has been reduced significantly for those hired since 2011 while Medicaid has been expanded.
There is no doubt that pension costs are hurting us now because they were ignored to increase other areas in the budget in the past.
But stopping trying to blame so disproportionately on pensions.
Comment by Unconventionalwisdom Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:03 pm
My gut tells me if people can’t even figure out how to be safe in a pandemic, they’re not going to figure out the nuances of a tax amendment.
It really needs to be framed as “If you’re not making a lot of money and don’t want higher taxes for yourself, vote for this” or I don’t think it will go through.
My gut also tells me that people feel like they’ve given up enough because of the pandemic, so they’re more self-focused now. They don’t care why the state needs the money; they just want to know how the changes will affect them. I think the Republicans get this.
Comment by Stuff Happens Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:04 pm
It’s always an uphill battle to pass something that’s related to taxes, but with a big blue turnout it has a good shot.
Comment by Shytown Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:05 pm
Removing the previous Constitutional language on a single individual & corporate tax has not been seized on sufficiently by the No folks. The No’s should also exploit fact that JB & Madigan are pushing it. If they did that, it would easily fail. I think that it will fail regardless. People are angry about no sports, kids not back in school, business discrimination by state, lost jobs, etc.
Comment by JudgeDavidDavis Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:06 pm
My gut tells me it passes. All the people who voted for JB are still out there.
Comment by SSL Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:06 pm
It certainly is in trouble down here in the Eastern Bloc. Lots of yard signs against it. People here sure are protective of millionaires and billionaires, such as the one in the White House and the ones who would be affected by this proposition. All of them, that is, except the governor.
Comment by up2now Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:06 pm
Pre COVID-19, thought it would pass. Think the anti-mask crowd / sentiment will defeat it.
Comment by Anyone Remember Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:07 pm
Sadly, I think it fails. The proponents had subpar messaging and miserable timing.
Comment by Jibba Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:07 pm
Voters don’t really tune in until the last month, ie, now. If JB has a good set of last minute ads, it might make it over the finish line.
If it passes, it will be a squeeker right at 50.1%.
If it doesn’t pass, it is all on the GA for not passing a contingent flat tax increase at the same time they set the contingent graduated tax rates.
Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:07 pm
This being IL, my gut tells me the amendment passes, then is ruled invalid due to the IPI lawsuit.
Comment by Angry Republican Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:08 pm
== - John Lee Pettimore, III - Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 3:55 pm:
I think it will fail. I also think, while many will believe this is an unfair statement, that we need a constitutional amendment to address the pension formula that is causing much, but not all, of the states fiscal crisis. ==
The current pension language makes it crystal clear the pensions are a contract. Except in very special circumstances, which the State can not exercise contracts can not be be retroactively or unilaterally modified or voided.
So what is your pension proposal that does not violate the US Contracts Clause?
Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:15 pm
“50.1%” - Don’t CAs require 60%? That’s what killed the 1992 education CA.
Comment by Anyone Remember Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:16 pm
It’s at the top of the ballot, right? My gut says it squeaks through. But it won’t get 60% so the drop-off from TBC to the Amendment will be the factor to watch.
Agree with others on messaging. I don’t think the NO messaging has been great, but the YES messaging has been poor and inconsistent. They need to go with the top two movers and drill those to the exclusion of literally everything else, including responding to the NO folks.
Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:18 pm
There’s just no way to know for sure what the dropoff will be and that’s the key. If Biden voters vote for it, then it passes easily. The base has to turn out and vote on that question. It isn’t the easiest thing to find but it’s also the only yes/no question on the ballot up front. Vote by mail also gives people more time to look the ballot over. I think it passes, but with just over 50% of those voting.
Comment by data Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:18 pm
My gut tells me we’ll be having discussions with movers within five years…
Comment by Just a guy Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:19 pm
Adding….I expect Scott Kennedy to have the best breakdown of total ballots cast and ballots cast on the Amendment to figure whether it’s winning or losing on election night and the week or so that follows
Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:19 pm
===Don’t CAs require 60%?===
Or a majority of all those voting in the election.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:19 pm
My gut says it fails, which is too bad because they had a $55 million lead for two months and sat on it. Now they are being out-messaged and being out-communicated (how is that possible?) when taxes are never a popular topic and ‘no’ is always the safer vote when in doubt.
Comment by Hyperbolic Chamber Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:21 pm
=My gut tells me we’ll be having discussions with movers within five years…=
Why wait?
Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:21 pm
My guts says it fails. Wholly unimpressed with the pro-tax effort. For something that is so critical to Pritzker successfully governing and with unlimited resources, I thought I’d be overwhelmed by the size and sophistication of the campaign (like his gubernatiorial race). I’m been amazing how narrow and compelling the campaign has been. It started so late. Did nothing to tie messaging to the pandemic. Just abysmal so far. Still a month left and a lot of money to be spent, but so far the campaign has been straight up bad.
Comment by Wizzard of Ozzie Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:25 pm
At least in my neck of the downstate woods the pro-Fair Tax side is doing a terrible job at advertising marketing. There is a constant barrage of anti-fair tax commercials all saying passing the fair tax will “allow the state to raise your taxes.” The pro-fair tax people need to get out there with the facts that your taxes can/will be raised regardless of whether the amendment passes and talk about why they feel the flat tax is not a good system.
Comment by tea_and_honey Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:26 pm
Sure, throw Medicaid in the mix.
But the pre-2011 pension liability (Tier 1) is what’s causing the significant unfunded liability problem, not post-2011 (Tier 2) pensions.
Comment by John Lee Pettimore, III Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:27 pm
=== But the pre-2011 pension liability (Tier 1) is… ===
… not the question on the table.
Pensions are protected by the constitution and the contract clause.
Unless you can change that, and it’s been tried, and failed so far…
The question is to *this* Constitutional Amendment.
This is like arguing who should be the NL MVP during an NFL game.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:32 pm
My gut, and it is large, says that it will fail. The ones opposed are determined to vote No. Many will leave it blank. The “Get Out the Vote” money will be used to support votes for Candidates and not care about this. Add that to distrust of politicians of any party, and the ones in Springfield in particular, and don’t think it will get the votes to pass.
Comment by SOIL M Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:33 pm
RNUG, I can’t answer that. But, you are more knowledgeable on this topic than I am.
I simply wish that the taxpayers, like me, had a seat at the table when the contracts you’ve referenced were agreed to were executed in the first place. The cards were stacked against the taxpayers from the word go.
And please don’t tell me that our elected officials were the taxpayers’ representative.
Comment by John Lee Pettimore, III Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:35 pm
I think it gets low 50’s. I’m in a FB neighborhood group with >10K members. Some people like and support JB but will vote against with others not happy that there is no pension or property tax reform. Other’s think they will end up paying eventually and that its bad for small businesses. Alot of distrust in our state government as well.
The other issue is plenty of people still don’t know what side to believe/trust. Others are still confused as to what the CA is/does. I could see alot of these people skipping the question.
Comment by 1st Ward Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:37 pm
===I simply wish that the taxpayers, like me, had a seat at the table===
Voters have a seat at the table via their ballot votes. Taxpayers don’t get an extra vote.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:38 pm
=== And please don’t tell me that our elected officials were the taxpayers’ representative.===
Deep breath. A walk, paint, sculpt…
This CA, and not everything, is not state pensions anger.
With respect.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:42 pm
My gut says it hits 60+. Maybe I am overly optimistic, but the language on the ballot reads favorably for the tax and most people will be voting for someone else’s tax bill to go up.
Comment by Montrose Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:46 pm
It fails because Democrats continue to fight uphill. Voters prefer alternatives. They were never really given alternatives on the Fair Tax until the ILGOP gave them an alternative: vote against this or see your retirement taxed.
It’s a lie but it is an alternative. Now the cake has been baked and that is the argument the voters have.
Shame on Democrats for seeing early polling and assuming this was a lock. Shame on anyone who listened to the IPIs lies about this not realizing they are the same folks who also want to end retirement as Illinoisans know it.
Comment by MG85 Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:48 pm
gut says it is going down to defeat. they cannot blow down the noise that this means retirees will get taxed, and excessively. I just got one post today that the percentage it will go up on retirees is something astronomical. they also lost the personality race with that older woman from Park Ridge who is just lying about the amendment. (looked her up and believe her son is some sketchy financial guy.) Amendment partisans need to make this personal, get something compelling in commercials, and fill Facebook and emails with the correct information if they want to eek this out.
Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 4:54 pm
My prediction is that it fails on the 60% of the “yes on the question” prong, but it is close on the 50% yes on the “total ballots cast” prong, close enough to go either way
Comment by Titan Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 5:08 pm
It’ll be close, but it’ll pass. The sweet song of someone else is too hard to ignore.
The Fair Tax has serious flaws. But it requires nuance to understand them, let alone communicate them. Why no married brackets for lowest earners? Why no inflation indexing when you just did implemented it for the gas tax? Why remove the “one tax on income” clause in the state constitution when it wasn’t necessary? Bad moves by a group that has been planning this for decades.
A dysfunctional ILGOP didn’t help either. They could’ve compromised on a plan. Their obvious miss is chaining the top bracket to the bottom bracket. That way, if the Fair Tax did pass, every tax hike on millionaires would’ve had an equal impact on everyone else. The tax structure still would’ve been “fair” and you’d still have the “we’re all tied together” when the next tax hike came along.
Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 5:09 pm
Really thinking it will be tight. Probably close to 61% passage on the Yes question.
Comment by Left of the Lake Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 5:17 pm
Will fail….no more mention of property tax relief….which increases no population….and the Madigan thing…not close
Comment by Mad Hatter Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 5:21 pm
?
Comment by A Guy Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 5:28 pm
I don’t think it even hits 50. Somewhat nuanced, gives Springfield more money and no one trusts Springfield. Messaging hasn’t been good and the retirees are going to be spooked. Perception doesn’t have to meet reality, but perception will be what makes voters decisions.
Comment by AD Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 5:33 pm
Is there any data out there showing what percentage of people don’t vote for every item on a ballot?
Comment by Seats Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 5:36 pm
=I simply wish that the taxpayers, like me, had a seat at the table when the contracts you’ve referenced were agreed to were executed in the first place. The cards were stacked against the taxpayers from the word go.
And please don’t tell me that our elected officials were the taxpayers’ representative.=
This is why I really hope it passes, one way or another. People who don’t get it.
“Taxpayers” and voters always have a seat at the table. Directly, like this vote on a progressive income tax. Indirectly through the representative democratic process so common in the United States. Every decision cannot be a plebiscite, it is not possible in a state of more than 12 million people, simply common sense. But, this is the common refrain that I hear from people when they don’t get the decision they want. These folks are intellectually immature. I get tired of people raging at my school board members because they don’t do as they direct. Then they attack them on FB.
This is your chance to have a seat at the table, just don’t complain if the result isn’t your choosing.
Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 5:56 pm
Say what you will but Madigan has used his power to control at least 7 of the 10 seats at the table which got Illinois where it’s at Today
Comment by Mad Hatter Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 6:04 pm
John Lee Pettimore, as a voter and resident of Illinois you benefited from the pension debt. Illinois politicians, as elected by the voters, intentionally kept IL a low tax state with high services by shorting the pension funds.
As for the question, honestly I think it’s a toss up. I’ve seen a tremendous amount of ads on both sides, so it all depends on turnout and if people take the time to vote on the question. If it passes it’ll be close.
Comment by MyTwoCents Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 6:10 pm
MTC said it better than me. JLP III liked the meal, but wants to skip out on the check.
As others have said, JB better have some commercials lined up (saying no retirement income and it’s a percentage ABOVE $250k) or it’s not going to pass.
Comment by Jocko Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 6:20 pm
My gut says it fails. If Facebook is any indication, the majority of folks are falling for the lies by the opponents. Even people I would consider somewhat informed, don’t seem to have grasped this.
Comment by Because I said so.... Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 6:22 pm
You asked for my gut feeling. After talking to the general public (friends & family who are not political), there is a huge distrust. Not an official poll or sample. This is what informs my gut after talking to many friends. Fails.
Comment by 4 percent Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 6:26 pm
Doubt it passes.
won’t fix anything if it does.
Comment by South Side Sam Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 8:52 pm
My guess is that it will be a point or two below the 57% the state responsibility for education funding received in 1992. Less support Downstate this time.
Comment by Oldtimer Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 9:17 pm
Think it will fail. I think people understand that if this passes even if they aren’t hit this time that this will not solve the problem and once in place, it makes it easier for them to come for them. With the bad news continuing to hit almost daily, I think people are dying for a reason to say no. Madigan and Pritzker make that easy. The lack of trust in politicians of both parties these days is another factor that will likely defeat this.
Comment by Really Tuesday, Oct 6, 20 @ 10:24 pm
My gut isn’t confiding in me at the moment. I sincerely hope it passes, but the anti-Fair Tax (how can anybody be against fair taxation?) blitz is doing its work - the work of the rich, that is.
I don’t however need my gut to tell me that if the Fair Tax fails, then all Illinoisans are looking at an increase in the flat tax in the immediate future - maybe to 6%. [Especially in light of the fact that there is no relief for states and municipalities in sight before 2021. This spells disaster for red and blue and every state in between.]
That will be fine with the 3%, but I wonder how the 97% will react. At least they’ve been warned.
Comment by dbk Wednesday, Oct 7, 20 @ 4:09 am