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* From an email…
Good morning – I’m reaching out to connect you with a source who can talk about why sportsbooks are creating more-accurate political predictions than some of the country’s leading polls.
David Strauss, lead oddsmaker at sportsbook MyBookie, can discuss why political polls are oftentimes wrong, and why sportsbooks have done a better job at getting it right. For example, 2016 polls suggested Clinton would win, while gambling lines were more indicative of the actual outcome.
* Politicians and pundits always reference polls when the results are in their favor but are quick to point out their inaccuracies when they are not. Strauss can discuss why sportsbooks are different, including:
* People are willing to lie on a poll but are unlikely to gamble their hard-earned money on something they don’t believe in
* Sportsbooks/oddsmakers also have money to lose if the political odds are set inaccurately
* Why sportsbooks are seeing a Trump win in the 2020 election, and how that differs from current pollsFor more of an in-depth chat on this topic, let me know what time you’re able to connect with David Strauss this week for a phone interview.
Thanks,
Natasha
Um, there’s a reason casinos are so opulent: Gamblers do not generally make rational decisions, even when they’re only betting a few bucks. Add our insane national politics into the equation and you’ve got a real problem on your hands.
…Adding… From a good buddy…
(A)s someone who’s made decent money wagering on elections I’ve always found the prediction markets to be trailing indicators. Also, it’s much easier to make money on the political markets by monetizing the yo-yo than betting on the outcome, I’ve been frustrated by how stable this race has become, it’s interfering with my monetization.
The general idea is to take advantage of the mopes.
* So, in an unfortunate moment of uncoolness which I now regret, I sent this reply…
Seriously, y’all need to watch this video and take me off your list
* Natasha’s reply…
ok, a simple wrong would’ve been just fine but…
If you don’t get the joke, watch the video until the end.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Sep 29, 20 @ 10:15 am
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538’s final popular vote poll average: Clinton +3.6%
2016 national popular vote result: Clinton +2.1%
The final result was actually pretty much in line with the polling results, Trump just got the breaks he needed to get to take the electoral college.
Comment by Sterling Tuesday, Sep 29, 20 @ 10:29 am
Now, my new name. Also, I am in love with Natasha. Very well played Rich. The problem with gambling is “There’s a reason casinos are so opulent”. Please goto Reno. If anyone wants that for our city and thinks “We will be different.” I can’t help you.
Comment by Billy Madison Tuesday, Sep 29, 20 @ 10:36 am
I don’t know Natasha but I appreciate her. She gets major bonus points for the reply.
Comment by CCapilla Tuesday, Sep 29, 20 @ 10:50 am
“ All these big buildings and bright lights aren’t built by winners “ Also applies to sports books.
Comment by Bruce( no not him) Tuesday, Sep 29, 20 @ 10:50 am
Rich:
1) Your humility is part of what makes you one of the best in this game. A lot of folks would have just buried the whole thing.
2) Love the Billy Madison clip.
3) I would be interested in hearing more about how the sportsbooks handicap elections.
Keep up the great work as always (banned punctuation)
Comment by Monadnock Pigeon Tuesday, Sep 29, 20 @ 10:50 am
Natasha, that is well played, Rich, if I had a nickel for regretting responses “electronically…
Easter eggs and the returned omelette are the cool of saying something without saying it out loud.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 29, 20 @ 10:51 am
Betting lines are set with the goal of having the same amount of cash on both sides. Losers pay the winners, casino takes a cut.
Only time a casino can lose is if there is too much money on one side…and that is why lines move as the event gets closer.
Comment by Stu Tuesday, Sep 29, 20 @ 11:04 am
=* People are willing to lie on a poll but are unlikely to gamble their hard-earned money on something they don’t believe in=
Some people will believe anything…
Kanye West
Election Winner
Next US Presidential Election
500/1
Comment by Donnie Elgin Tuesday, Sep 29, 20 @ 11:23 am
The odds of Kamala Harris as acting president are also greater than the odds of the Republicans winning the house, if you think about it.
Comment by Ok Tuesday, Sep 29, 20 @ 11:40 am
==Trump just got the breaks he needed==
It’s hard to believe that poor turnout in three states made such a difference. Also, Comey’s testimony on 9/30 didn’t help.
Comment by Jocko Tuesday, Sep 29, 20 @ 11:46 am
Having been in that role, people who pitch stories/interviews often have to spin gold from the straw they’re given. I tried to always do the due diligence of trying to reach out to the right people, but things change and mistakes can be made. It stings a little bit when you make an effort and get a sarcastic response.
Rich, your humility on this says a lot about your character- good on you.
Comment by Father Ted Tuesday, Sep 29, 20 @ 11:52 am
Good on you, Rich, for apologizing when one is due.
Heat of the moment and all that. ’s OK.
Comment by thisjustinagain Tuesday, Sep 29, 20 @ 12:20 pm
Natasha wins the exchange simply by going with it.
Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Sep 29, 20 @ 12:27 pm
–538’s final popular vote poll average: Clinton +3.6%
2016 national popular vote result: Clinton +2.1%
The final result was actually pretty much in line with the polling results, Trump just got the breaks he needed to get to take the electoral college. —
Comment by Oscar Tuesday, Sep 29, 20 @ 2:37 pm
== … got the breaks he needed to get to take the electoral college. ==
The Electoral College IS the game. That’s why you see all the attention on just a few states.
Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Sep 29, 20 @ 2:49 pm
Wow, amazing reply by Natasha
Comment by Disgruntled IL Democrat Tuesday, Sep 29, 20 @ 3:01 pm
Natasha wins the today’s PR game.
Comment by Politix Tuesday, Sep 29, 20 @ 3:48 pm
=== The Electoral College IS the game. That’s why you see all the attention on just a few states. ===
That needs to change. It’s not democratic, and is one of the main reasons that the promise of America is unfulfilled today.
Comment by PublicServant Tuesday, Sep 29, 20 @ 7:51 pm