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* By Cole Lauterbach at the Center Square…
Illinois manufacturers reported layoffs, supply chain disruptions, and closures from the COVID-19 pandemic, however, most are rebounding, according to a new poll.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Survey of Business Conditions interviewed hundreds of manufacturers in Illinois and Michigan between May 20 and June 5.
Many manufacturers were deemed essential through the spring closure orders, with some ramping up production of pandemic-fighting products. Others, including auto manufacturers, closed temporarily. Nearly all respondents to the survey reported revenue losses.
Seventy percent of respondents said their facilities never shut down during the pandemic. Of those that did halt operations, 28 percent said the closure was temporary. Another two percent said they closed for good. […]
Three of every four manufacturers expect the economy to feel the effects of COVID-19 until the end of 2021.
The Fed took a similar poll of small businesses in Illinois and several states in May that showed a much more bleak picture for other sectors.
The survey is here.
* Here’s another question: When do you think U.S. economic activity will return to where it was before the coronavirus outbreak?…
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 10:11 am
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The economy is not gong to return to pre-covid19 levels for a long time. A couple years or more.
Comment by DuPage Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 10:28 am
“When do you think U.S. economic activity will return to where it was before the coronavirus outbreak?”
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased 5.0 percent in the first quarter of 2020, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.
Nationally, the number of new coronavirus cases is still growing. There’s no vaccine, no breakthrough in treatment and no public consensus* on how to mitigate its growth. Even though states are “reopening,” unemployment is still at rates rates unprecedented in my lifetime.
I wish it were otherwise, but “After January 2023″ sure looks like the most optimistic, realistic answer.
– MrJM
*the scientific consensus for mitigation is clear: masks in public plus social distancing
Comment by @misterjayem Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 10:34 am
Why would it be January 2023 if a vaccine was widely available in January 2021?
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 11:39 am
===if a vaccine was widely available in January 2021? ===
You got an inside line on that, do you, or are you just going on hope?
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 11:42 am
As of June 4th
Dr. Fauci: 2021 may see up to 300 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine
The wait for a COVID-19 vaccine may be over sooner than expected, thanks to accelerated late-stage human testing and a plan to manufacture doses even before the trials are complete. That’s according to Anthony S. Fauci, MD, a member of the White House coronavirus task force who has served as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984.
https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/dr-fauci-2021-may-see-300-million-doses-covid-19-vaccine
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 11:47 am
===As of June 4th ===
Again, all you got is hope. Try to stay on-topic.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 11:49 am
Just listening to the scientists instead of the pundits and politicians with an agenda on this one Rich
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 12:00 pm
===Just listening to the scientists===
You’re labeling hopeful speculation as fact.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 12:07 pm
I’ve always been a bit of a contrarian when it comes to economics; overall that additute has served me fairly well. So my guess for a semi-normal economy would be mid-2021 unless the 2nd wave is uncontrolled; then all bets are off.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 12:11 pm
“Why would it be January 2023 if a vaccine was widely available in January 2021?”
Because a not insignificant portion of the population has proven themselves unwilling to stem the pandemic by merely social distancing and wearing a mask.
The people who are unwilling to do something so simple to address the pandemic seem highly unlikely to rush to get vaccinated because they were told to do so by the guvmint and Big Pharma.
– MrJM
Comment by @misterjayem Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 12:15 pm
Not so Rich the news on the recent vaccines is very encouraging and there is nothing wrong with optimism.
There is certainly more pessimism going around.
Social distancing and masks won’t stem the pandemic, only a vaccine or effective treatment will
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 12:21 pm
===there is nothing wrong with optimism===
Didn’t say that. Just don’t present hope as a plan.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 12:27 pm
Vaccine or no vaccine we’re in for a long recovery folks. Certain businesses won’t be coming back and other industries we’ll be on oxygen for a long time. Are people going to suddenly take to the skies? Will business travel rebound to pre-COVID levels now that we’ve broadly adopted zoom and other virtual platforms? How many college students will decide to take a gap year or never return? What about companies who are now rethinking their investments in commercial real estate or consumers who realize that they don’t need to go to the mall to get what they need?
Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 12:40 pm
===When do you think U.S. economic activity will return to where it was before the coronavirus outbreak?===
This is a rough question for anyone that’s not a policy maker to answer — though I appreciate the folks that are looking at a long term problem and hope that that kind of planning works out for them.
I think the real answer to this question depends on how we respond to the pandemic and resulting economic crisis from this point going forward. The last package involved some very hefty outlays to entities that maybe didn’t need it and resulted in a stimulus check that was 2% to 4% of the median household income in the United States depending on if you had two earners. (I’m not addressing the additional chunk per kid, which also helped.)
While $1,200 or $2,400 is a lot of money to some people when it represents just a week or two of your household’s income, it’s not going to have long term impacts and all we’ve really done for consumers is kick the can down the road for a few months and during those few months as a nation we also failed to take appropriate measures to actually stop or reduce the community spread of this virus, and I guess the right wing decided since enough of their friends had jumped off the bridge, why not? (Acknowledging appropriate praise to Russian trolls who may have helped drive that.)
We are on the way to having several hundred thousand more Americans die from COVID-19 related causes before the end of the year. The soon to be rising daily deaths haven’t caught up with the rising daily infections.
People are going to feel differently about a lot of things in a few weeks. The economic toll this will have is by no means done, but given the concentration of wealth in the United States it might be a while before the stock market catches up.
The federal Government may need to make a much more drastic intervention in order to keep demand up, and just writing another one time check won’t do it.
Good luck, everyone.
Comment by Candy Dogood Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 1:21 pm
=As of June 4th
Dr. Fauci: 2021 may see up to 300 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine=
=Just listening to the scientists instead of the pundits and politicians with an agenda on this one Rich=
=Social distancing and masks won’t stem the pandemic,=
Really? Dr. Fauci and “science” say that we should wear a mask and social distance. That is the best answer and something we can do now.
To the Post- 2022 is when we will likely see the bounce back. this one is going to leave a lasting impression with people. And 2022 is only if we have an effective vaccine and or a change n behavior where 90% or more of people wear a mask.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 1:36 pm
==Just don’t present hope as a plan.==
Wish you’d throw around that advice a little more often down there in the Capitol.
Comment by A Guy Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 1:43 pm
Sorry, anonymous @1:36pm was me.
Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 1:50 pm
I once told my old man I hoped to (one fine day) own a Hot Rod Corvette…He busted out laughing and said,”I’ll hope for you too”.
Comment by Dotnonymous Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 1:56 pm
Weekly global economic update - June 2020
https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/global-economic-outlook/weekly-update.html
Comment by M Wednesday, Jul 1, 20 @ 4:32 pm