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* Background…
To advance through the phases, the Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) will be monitoring the COVID-19 positivity rate, the percent of COVID-19 positive tests out of the total number of tests performed, in each region. The 20% positivity rate is an average over the last 14 days. The region will be required to have a positivity rate of 20% or less and an increase of no more than 10% over a 14-day period, among other factors, to advance to the next phase. A positivity rate climb to more than 20% for a region does not indicate an automatic return to the previous phase, but it would be one of a set of multiple factors IDPH would look at to make the recommendation to return to a prior phase. […]
Restore Illinois requires a region to experience a downward trend in test positivity rates for 14 days, a downward trend in hospitalizations for COVID-like illness for 28 days, and a specific hospital surge capacity. If a region is able to meet those metrics outlined by public health experts, they can move to the next phase.
* So, how are each of the four regions doing? The latest IDPH report says all regions are on track to move to the next phase except the Northeast Region, which includes Chicago, the suburbs and some exurbs. And just one metric, the positivity rate (with the three asterisks) is holding that region back, which is why the collars and exurbs want out of the region…
Northeast Region
Positivity rate: 22.3%***
Positivity change past 14 days: -0.8%
Hospital admissions change since May 1: -18.6%
Med/Surge bed availability: 17.8%
ICU bed availability: 18.8%
Ventilator availability: 64.3%North-Central Region
Positivity rate: 9.1%
Positivity change past 14 days: -0.6%
Hospital admissions change since May 1: -35.8%
Med/Surge bed availability: 41.1%
ICU bed availability: 40.6%
Ventilator availability: 64.9%Central Region
Positivity rate: 6.0%
Positivity change past 14 days: 0.2%
Hospital admissions change since May 1: -44.4%
Med/Surge bed availability: 52.4%
ICU bed availability: 44.2%
Ventilator availability: 74.6%Southern Region
Positivity rate: 10.5%
Positivity change past 14 days: -1.4%
Hospital admissions change since May 1: -54.3%
Med/Surge bed availability: 45.8%
ICU bed availability: 28.0%
Ventilator availability: 80.7%
* Related…
* Projected peak for coronavirus in Illinois now mid-June, says Gov. J.B. Pritzker
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 10:00 am
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The mayor of Naperville says they reached their peak in mid-April. The governor says Illinois will reach the peak in mid-June.
Either someone is wrong, or the regions in “Restore Illinois” need to be adjusted.
Comment by ajjacksson Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 10:03 am
===The mayor of Naperville says they reached their peak===
The mayor has an epidemiologist on staff?
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 10:05 am
== Either someone is wrong, or the regions in “Restore Illinois” need to be adjusted. ==
Yes someone is very wrong. And it’s not the Gov.
Comment by Shytown Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 10:07 am
They are both wrong. If the curve has been flattened, the peak will last longer, and not necessarily go up or down for an extended period. We are at peak, and it may last awhile.
Comment by Nickname of the Day Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 10:13 am
If Chicago’s positivity rate doesn’t drop in the next week or so, expect the clamor for a fifth region (Rezin proposal) of just Cook and or City of Chicago to increase. I think that the Governor actually created the Northeast Region so that the collars and suburbs could balance out Chicago and help to get them to stage 3 earlier than if they were separate, but this could backfire big-time if Cook/City drags down the suburbs instead.
Comment by Interesting Times Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 10:15 am
Southern Region looks in pretty good shape and this just adds to why many are frustrated about the 28 day rule. Madison County just posted a phased reopening that was created in a bipartisan manner with support of the State’s Attorney. If anyone has followed Madison County over the last 4 years, they would know that anything bipartisan is a huge accomplishment. The Governor needs to adjust his order to allow local health departments to set the standards for phased reopening. Madison County will be in line with the St. Louis guidelines and we are a region. The one size fits all plan had good intentions, but just is not reasonable. I will vote for JB again, but he needs to adjust this.
Comment by Bethalto Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 10:20 am
If the northeast region was broken into a city region and a suburban region, wouldn’t the city people just drive to the suburbs to go out to eat/shop/play, bringing the virus with them? We’re all sick of staying home, but there’s a reason for it.
Comment by Sweet Mama Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 10:22 am
Sweet Mama. You’re right, but where is the pressure for Chicago’s Mayor to get the message out to the communities most at risk that they need to get tested, follow best practices for not spreading the virus, and wear a mask? Why should suburban residents be made to pay (literally if they cant get back to work in the case of retail, restaurants, etc.) for the failings of the City?
Comment by Interesting Times Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 10:31 am
My wife got the test. Preexisting condition and essential workers can get the test. Any one else symptoms. But that is a lot. But even inn the downstate numbers are Monmouth and Beardstown with Chicago rates and Macomb has community spread from Nursing homes.
Comment by Not a Billionaire Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 10:31 am
== I think that the Governor actually created the Northeast Region so that the collars and suburbs could balance out Chicago and help to get them to stage 3 earlier than if they were separate ==
Chicago is a driving force in so many ways for so many of us. As a suburbanite I am happy to be included in the region with Chicago as a lot of my family/friends/acquaintances are in the city and need it to open back up. I fear if Chicago was by itself it may never hit the scorecard targets.
Comment by Diver Down Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 10:44 am
I believe the Mayor of Naperville was basing the peak for Naperville looking solely at Naperville cases and patients at Edward Hospital in Naperville. See the dashboard at https://www.naperville.il.us/corona-virus-resources/.
Not all in Naperville agree either with how the city of Naperville makes the measurement or that Naperville should be excluded from the northeast region.
Only 15% of people who work in Naperville live in Naperville (https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/naperville-sun/ct-nvs-housing-plan-naperville-affordable-st-20200202-ldurapqfmzhttml6ilwpjfdd5a-story.html). I suspect the majority of remaining 85% who get COVID-19 wouldn’t be counted as Naperville cases and, if they required hospitalization, they wouldn’t be hospitalized at Edward Hospital. Anyone who got the disease from a non-resident Naperville worker would most likely not be included in the Naperville statistics either.
Comment by Cricket Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 10:48 am
“and Macomb has community spread from Nursing homes.”
Plus Sherman because of the massive outbreak at Villas East nursing home–sadly the home just lost its 21st resident due to COVID-19:
https://www.sj-r.com/news/20200511/deadly-milestone-villas-east-resident-is-countyrsquos-25th-covid-19-victim
Comment by Chatham Resident Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 10:54 am
It is Naperville, Naperville is never wrong /s
Comment by DuPage Saint Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:07 am
Rich - If you can, can you ask what steps the state is doing to get more people tested in Chicago zip codes with high positive rates considering the focus on positivity rate? Is the issue a language barrier, a cultural barrier, or a general communication barrier? I know it’s not completely an access to testing issue.
Comment by Chicagonk Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:21 am
North Central where I am from looks good, however, the county health depts are only testing people with symptoms. I am skeptical that we are truly moving to the next phase. Especially since there has been an uptick in the rebellion of the Governor’s orders to open up.
Comment by JuMP Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:42 am
=== It is Naperville, Naperville is never wrong /s ===
Dupage Saint - check your username
Comment by Diverdown Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 11:56 am
For all the squealing and squawking about following the data it’s amazing how much they ignore. Six of Southern Illinois’ major hospitals are located across the rivers in Evansville, Paducah and Cape Girardeau. That doesn’t even begin to take into account the St. Louis facilities.
Comment by Downstate Illinois Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 12:02 pm
“If the northeast region was broken into a city region and a suburban region, wouldn’t the city people just drive to the suburbs to go out to eat/shop/play, bringing the virus with them?”
Plus and there were over 76.1 MILLION Metra rides in 2018 — and the vast, VAST majority of them were between Chicago and the suburbs of the Northeast Region.
Like it or not, the city and its suburbs are in this together.
– MrJM
Comment by @misterjayem Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 1:10 pm
=As a suburbanite I am happy to be included in the region with Chicago as a lot of my family/friends/acquaintances are in the city and need it to open back up.=
A large part of the Chicago business, retail, and service economy is derived from suburbanites who travel into the city each day. I can’t see how you don’t treat this as a large metro area. Doing otherwise ignores reality.
Comment by Pundent Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 1:12 pm
There are hot spot areas in the suburbs. I haven’t seen any data on it, but would venture a guess that there are some suburban areas that could be over the 20% positivity rate. Even if not, opening the suburbs could result in that since flow of people from the city to the burbs would surely increase. As others have said, it ignores reality to treat the city and the suburbs separately, as it is simply all too interconnected.
Comment by AC Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 1:40 pm
- Bethalto - Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 10:20 am:
Southern Region looks in pretty good shape and this just adds to why many are frustrated about the 28 day rule. Madison County just posted a phased reopening that was created in a bipartisan manner with support of the State’s Attorney. If anyone has followed Madison County over the last 4 years, they would know that anything bipartisan is a huge accomplishment. The Governor needs to adjust his order to allow local health departments to set the standards for phased reopening. Madison County will be in line with the St. Louis guidelines and we are a region. The one size fits all plan had good intentions, but just is not reasonable. I will vote for JB again, but he needs to adjust this. ==
I agree. It’s good to see some bipartisanship from the county board for a change. Once St. Louis reopens on Monday, keeping our businesses locked down here in Madison County will be pretty pointless. Everyone will just cross the river to do business.
Comment by Dave W Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 2:00 pm
I cross from Cook to DuPage several times a week. I go to Starbucks, buy lunch, maybe pick up stuff at stores. Meet with clients. Attend meetings. If I have the virus, it’s crossing county lines with me.
Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, May 12, 20 @ 2:20 pm
=== If anyone has followed Madison County over the last 4 years, they would know that anything bipartisan is a huge accomplishment.===
Foolishness is also bipartisan it appears.
The Mississippi River and a bridge won’t stop Covidiots from infecting that region with ignorance.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, May 13, 20 @ 8:15 am