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* Yep…
Pretty compelling evidence the problem is the virus, not the lockdown. https://t.co/7a2OFs8bbT pic.twitter.com/NKSIIsfxFQ
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) May 8, 2020
* More at the link, including this…
* More…
Across all of these states, most of the decline in these economic indicators occurred before official closure orders.
Even states that never put in a statewide stay-at-home order, like Iowa, South Dakota and Utah, saw significant drops in consumer spending and employment, as well as in the share of small businesses open.
This basic pattern is visible in other corners of the economy: Well before shutdown orders, restaurant reservations were plummeting. Electricity usage, which falls when office buildings and factories empty out, was dropping, too. Public transit in many cities was in free fall. So was the number of air travel passengers passing through T.S.A. checkpoints.
Such data, combined with opinion polling today, suggests that Americans who were turning off the economy on their own may not readily reopen it soon — even if officials say it’s OK to.
* Related…
* Trump administration pushed use of remdesivir, but unequal rollout angers doctors - Introduction of the first coronavirus treatment is marked by lack of transparency and incomplete medical data, physicians say
* Trump administration buries detailed CDC advice on reopening
* White House pandemic supply project swathed in secrecy and exaggerations
* U.S. jobless rate likely much higher than 14.7%, Labor Dept says
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:02 pm
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Supply side economics can’t do much without demand. The recovery is going to be a long process.
Comment by njt Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:07 pm
Forbes reports that data suggests that people are increasingly not sheltering in place.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2020/05/01/apple-data-shows-shelter-in-place-is-ending-whether-governments-want-it-to-or-not/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Comment by Keyrock Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:10 pm
So let’s assume we get to a point where tests are massively, readily available to anyone who wants one. Some potential therapies are in development and a few vaccine in trials, so we’re hopefully making progress on the treatment aspect. I still haven’t seen much information on what a contact tracing program is going to be, and that’s going to be a critical component of our future moving forward. I’m trying to think about what that is going to be like. As quickly as possible after as a positive case, you’d want to identify where that person has been, and who they’ve been in contact with (or close enough proximity) within the incubation period of the virus. (5-6 days for COVID-19) according to some estimates. How does that work in America? In China, where facial recognition technology is becoming more prevalent and privacy laws are basically non-existent, you could fairly quickly identify people who need to self-isolate as a result of contact exposure to an infected person.
We don’t have that kind of technology in America, and even if we did, would our preferences for privacy prevent mass implementation of such kind? I don’t know if I am necessarily comfortable with facial recognition technology being able to identify me and track my location from point to point, but if it can be used for good to limit exposure and stop the spread of a truly deadly virus, I would consider surrendering some of that privacy. It is a data-driven world that we live in; it seems like we may be about to cross the next frontier.
Comment by Chambanalyst Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:16 pm
Gasoline sales may be a proxy for measuring levels of isolation. Heard this morning that sales were up from a very low base.
In my neighborhood there are people visiting beyond their immediate family. They have decided that some people are acceptable risks.
Comment by Last Bull Moose Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:19 pm
Interesting statistics. It appears that people, in general, can be trusted to take responsible actions and that stay-at-home and shutdown orders are not necessary.
Comment by OOO Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:23 pm
Pretty clear that 22 percent of people really don’t think the virus is an issue.
37 percent of people think this is worth not even going over to a friend’s house for.
And the biggest body of folks in the middle would be OK if they could just go to a wedding, go to a funeral, get a haircut, go to church, and visit a friend.
Whereas “eating at a restaurant” is the new culture war.
And 6 percent of people don’t go to the dentist.
Yikes.
Comment by Ok Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:24 pm
OOO - did you see the part about 6 percent of people not going to the dentist?
Comment by Ok Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:25 pm
“Gasoline sales may be a proxy for measuring levels of isolation. Heard this morning that sales were up from a very low base.”
I posted similar replies on other threads here the last few days, but we’re seeing the likely effects of increased gas sales in the Springfield area. Stations here are now back at least near $2/gallon. One of the Casey’s in Chatham was $1.99 yesterday; BP and Shell here in town was $1.89 Wednesday. Although the change to summer gas blends can play a factor in this price increase too.
Comment by Chatham Resident Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:28 pm
Keyrock — the Foursquare data is probably skewed — 13 million self-selected users.
We have been self-isolating since before the lockdown, and we would continue even if JB hadn’t extended.
Things are not returning to normal around here. And another surge in cases will send people rushing back home.
Comment by Soccermom Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:30 pm
Wow a lot of people really care that much about their hair
Comment by Been There Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:38 pm
An interesting followup question to each of the categories: do you think you would isolate in place or self-quarantine after this event? Or another way to ask this: after deciding on doing this event, how long would you wait to visit your 60, 70, 80 or 90 year old parent after the event?
Or, if you do a sequence of these in a short time window, which will you think was the one that got you infected?
Comment by vole Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:38 pm
To clarify, track gasoline volumes not dollar sales.
Comment by Last Bull Moose Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:38 pm
=Forbes reports that data suggests that people are increasingly not sheltering in place.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2020/05/01/apple-data-shows-shelter-in-place-is-ending-whether-governments-want-it-to-or-not/amp/?__twitter_impression=true=
There seems to be two very conflicting narratives out there. Polling says the majority of people believe in the orders and are following them and don’t want to reopen yet. Location data says the majority of people aren’t following the orders and have decided to reopen on their own.
Not sure why Rich has avoided the articles about location data that seem to contradict the polls. If he did and I missed it, I apologize.
But something is wrong with the data, either the polling data is way off, people are dishonest, or the location sample sizes are too small too be useful.
Comment by phenom_Anon Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:41 pm
Also, the first graphic from Mr Wolfers doesn’t seem like the best one to illustrate his point. Unless I’m misreading it, according to the data on it, late closing states did better (economically), and states without closures have seen mostly higher consumer spending throughout the time period (20-30% in some cases).
I would imagine that if you posted data on deaths as an additional data point on there, it would make his case better. However, as presented, while it shows there were declines in place from people self-isolating probably, it seems to show that the less government action that was put in place, the better the results were economically.
Comment by phenom_Anon Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:46 pm
The economy was “softening” before COVID-19. Railroad shipping numbers for the first quarter were lower than the same period in 2019. It will be a long trek back.
Comment by Anyone Remember Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:47 pm
=Location data says the majority of people aren’t following the orders and have decided to reopen on their own.=
People could be moving around for any number of reasons. It does not mean by extension that they want to reopen the economy. We know they aren’t going to restaurants, schools, or movie theaters right now.
Comment by Pundent Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:48 pm
phenom_Anon, I think there is a disconnect on what people “think” they are doing vs. what they actually are doing. For instance, the folks who are isolating at home, but still in their old habits of running to the store for a few items as needed vs. trying to minimize and consolidate their shopping trips.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:50 pm
I think the biggest issue is schools in the Fall. We have to have these kids back learning. Kids seem to not have issues in any real significant way. Those that choose to stay home, they need to get creative I suppose. But, if there was ever a time to force consolidation of districts, it’s now. Maybe that is a point to add for the state bailout? Yes, the “pre covid” was the studies that we all see that it doesn’t save money. I was in education long enough to understand those. But, the fact that half our states kids don’t have access to e learning is ridiculous. The 800 plus districts and 800 plus directions can be streamlined with technology. Of course, the teachers unions and administrators organizations would fight of course. If I were them I would be begging to open schools in the fall. The kid in Collinsville should be able to login to Stevensons AP Bio that isn’t offered. It would be great to see our politicians explain the future roadblocks to consolidate using pre covid arguments and studies.
Comment by Fighter of Foo Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:52 pm
=== It appears that people, in general, can be trusted to take responsible actions and that stay-at-home and shutdown orders are not necessary. ===
The Stay-at-Home and Shutdown orders are for the people that, in general, can’t be trusted to take responsible actions, that then affect me and mine.
Comment by PublicServant Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:57 pm
And the financial markets are shrugging all of this off so far. Dow up 1.23% today despite the most horrible non-farm employment report in recent memory, and the uncertainty of future consumer spending as indicated in the polling above. The Fed has a lot of money they are pumping into the economy to cushion the blow, but wondering how long they can last without the whole thing blowing up.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Friday, May 8, 20 @ 12:58 pm
I saw Dr. Birx on CNN but when talking about contact tracing she was not asked nor did she offer if it would be a CDC operation or the states. My guess would be the states (Fed punting) but outside of the Governor mentioning it, I have not seen a specific plan for rolling out the program. Which means we are a long way away from it.
Comment by James the Intolerant Friday, May 8, 20 @ 1:07 pm
I have not seen an open movie theater so how are they not down 100 percent? Is this data perfect?
Comment by Not a Billionaire Friday, May 8, 20 @ 1:36 pm
Dow up 1.23% today
It’s been a while since Dow valuations made any sense from financial data. This is more a reflection of people wanting to get back to normal, the knowledge that the Don will put his thumb on the scale if needed, and some long-term plays on the order of years. Not sensible when facing a new Great Depression.
Comment by Simple Simon Friday, May 8, 20 @ 1:50 pm
Six Degrees,
I made some money in the market in 2008-2011.
The market now? You’ve got algorithms, and a bunch of newbies who don’t know what they’re doing.
The day remdesivir was announced is a good example of the newbies. One study. For a drug that’s incredibly inefficient to manufacture, and hasn’t even finished testing or been priced.
Get your limit orders in for every stock you own. Be ready to make money on intra-day turbulence.
But don’t try to apply logic. There’s no logic in the current market.
Comment by Lynn S. Friday, May 8, 20 @ 1:54 pm
=I think there is a disconnect on what people “think” they are doing vs. what they actually are doing. For instance, the folks who are isolating at home, but still in their old habits of running to the store for a few items as needed vs. trying to minimize and consolidate their shopping trips.=
I agree. I think that’s a big part of it. People often say what they think they should, which may be different than their own actions and feelings. I’m downstate, and whenever these polls pop up showing overwhelming support for the order and agreeing to keep it in place as is, even in downstate, it seems weird to me because it’s not what I see. I’ve got a pretty big circle, from people feeling the bern to those who listen to treat fox news like gospel, but the overwhelming sentiment I get goes against the polls. What I see matches the location data. Traffic in Central Illinois is only slightly down, at most. And at certain times it’s heavier than normal.
Comment by phenom_Anon Friday, May 8, 20 @ 1:58 pm
=* Trump administration pushed use of remdesivir, but unequal rollout angers doctors…=
This whole thing is just so bizarre.
First it appeared that Gilead is doing the trials, then it appeared that NIH was doing the trials. Now, it appears they’re both doing the trials.
And now it comes out they’ve changed the primary outcome, which is one of the ways drug companies manipulate trial data.
Something’s rotten in Denmark.
Comment by TinyDancer(FKASue) Friday, May 8, 20 @ 3:30 pm