Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: Your moment of Zen
Next Post: Legislators warn nursing homes as industry asks for more state money
Posted in:
* Gov. JB Pritzker said during a Monday afternoon appearance on CNBC that he is hoping the coronavirus peak will come “in the middle of May.” On Tuesday, the governor said this to a Washington Post reporter…
Gov. J.B. Pritzker on Tuesday said models are now predicting the new coronavirus won’t peak in Illinois until mid-May, weeks later than previously projected. […]
“So it’s been pushed out now, according to the models, to maybe mid-May, but at a lower level, and so we’re moving, inching toward that date,” Pritzker said.
* The first question from Illinois reporters yesterday was about that changed forecast. Pritzker’s response…
We’ll be talking more about our models in the coming couple of days. But suffice to say that we’re working hard to try to make changes to the stay at home order. But, you know, we are in the stay at home order now, so I think I’ve given enough information to people so they understand that the peak is still yet to come. We need to be careful.
But I wanted to give our staff and myself enough time to have conversations with the epidemiologists and the experts and people in different industries to try to understand what we could do, not just in the very near term about changing the stay at home order in some ways, tweaking at the edges and trying to make it easier on people, but also what we will do going forward, if in fact the peak comes in mid-May or whenever that may come. We need to have 14 days after that, as you know, according to many of the experts, where the numbers are going down, so we’re looking at all of those things we’re working on it now.
I have a very real problem with the governor going on a national cable news program mere minutes after briefing Illinois reporters Monday and telling that audience about a very substantial change in his forecast, and then repeating that information to a national newspaper the following day, but then dismissing questions about this quite substantial revision from reporters who actually live in and cover his own state.
I get why the modeling changed. The curve was slowed. Illinoisans leveled off a sharp upward spike and that pushed things out by several weeks.
But he should’ve explained this yesterday. And he probably should’ve said who was doing this new modeling that he’s looking at. At least give us a thumbnail sketch and then provide lots more details at a later briefing devoted entirely to the topic.
We’re the ones he governs. We’re the ones whose very lives and livelihoods depend on the governor’s every decision. If he’s not willing to answer questions at home, then he shoudn’t go on national media and answer theirs.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 10:56 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: Your moment of Zen
Next Post: Legislators warn nursing homes as industry asks for more state money
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
I agree with the Governor’s go-to response that we need to follow the science, but when that science has turned out to be so horribly wrong, he needs to explain, in detail, what this new science consists of.
Comment by Birdseed Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:04 am
That is absolutely right. Saying the peak is coming 3 weeks further out was a big shift, and knowing details behind that shift is important.
While JB has worked as hard as anyone could expect, the projections have changed significantly since this thing started. That’s fine, but you need to explain it if you want people to believe what you say.
Comment by SSL Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:05 am
The national media should not get a more fulsome explanation than the people of this state. I give Pritzker credit for having these daily news conferences. It is THE platform for communicating to the people of this state, not CNBC.
Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:10 am
A jarring lack of details. Stifling the media by mandating pool coverage and not giving total access to the media is troublesome. Is the PR staff homogenizing the questions? Is there any opportunity for follow-up questions? I don’t think so and that really bothers me.
Comment by Wylie Coyote Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:13 am
This is why reporters need to keep asking questions even if they are redundant. If JB is going to run to national news outlets to make statements like this without any backup he needs to be held accountable. This seems like he is playing politics here.
Comment by WacoKid Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:13 am
===Stifling the media by mandating pool coverage===
Take a breath.
I prefer the pool coverage. It prevents know-nothing idiots from hogging the mic.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:17 am
A proper admonishment that should be taken in the manner given. A mea culpa is not a bad thing.
Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:18 am
I agree with your comments Rich. It is challenging to plan as a business, institution, employee, transit system, etc for the staged or otherwise lifting of the stay at home order. We are now less than two weeks away from the expiration of the current order and direction from the governor is needed now to plan for and effectuate actions needed to taken for when the order will be lifted or modified.
Each day that goes by without clarity from the governor will make that transition that much more difficult.
Comment by Tommydanger Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:19 am
That duality… not great… to say the least.
The Governor can be vague Nationally, and precise here in ole Illinois.
Do better.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:20 am
This is also why “trust the science” is a vague statement. If conclusions shift day to day–which they do–isn’t it justifiable to explain why the “science” changed?
There’s too many people on both sides that assume that either science is 100% or 0% correct. Since these are predictions, it’s somewhere in the middle. I’d like to believe it’s closer to 100%, but to categorically wave off anyone who questions any prediction or model is an non-intellectual as those who believe they are 0% correct.
Comment by ajjacksson Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:20 am
“…is as non-intellectual…”
Comment by ajjacksson Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:22 am
Watching the data everyday there are many counties where the numbers have not changed much at all in the terms of any growth and other counties that have seen growth with much of it dependent on large essential businesses in that county still being in operation. Some counties see growth because of containment in a prison or group homes, assisted living, nursing homes. This is going to have to be a county by county reopening and some may be in position to reopen May 1st. All should require face masks and social distancing after opening back up.
Comment by Arock Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:22 am
Speaking of reporters and doing better; I see the poor child that was less than a year old in Chicago did not die of coronavirus according to the coroner and the high school kid from Arlington Heights has not been diagnosed with the virus and cause of death is awaiting an autopsy. It would be nice if reporters waited for an official cause of death before reporting on one
Comment by DuPage Saint Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:25 am
Let’s make something clear. When the expected peak shifts, it’s not because “the science” is wrong. It’s because flattening the curve changes the inputs. So the output changes.
It’s actually good news that the peak is moving out, because it means the curve is flatter.
But Rich is right that JB should tell us about it first.
Rich is often right. It gets on my nerves sometimes…
Comment by Soccermom Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:25 am
= Some counties see growth because of containment in a prison or group homes, assisted living, nursing homes.=
Staffed by people who in turn take the virus back to their communities where it’s spread by others who may take the disease back to their own counties. The virus doesn’t pay attention to property lines.
Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:29 am
The modeling will be very interesting to see. The IHME model got press yesterday when it released a new forecast that included an increase of the number of US deaths by 10%. That same update shows Illinois as past peak. It also moved its forecast date of when Illinois could relax social distancing if other containment strategies are in place earlier to May 19.
If a new model described an extended plateau in Illinois that was at odds with the IHME forecast, I can imagine how the fluctuations in daily cases could support that. I’d really want to see how a model uses the current plateau of new daily cases to forecast a future peak three weeks off.
Comment by muon Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:32 am
Well done Rich. Governors and the President need to communicate, but Corona fatigue is setting in. And the goalposts keep changing, which is frustrating for everyone.
Comment by Top of the State Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:34 am
Like his predecessors he has his eyes on DC. This conditions national media that he will play ball with them.
Comment by Bruce Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:34 am
Governor Pritzker has to provide a complete rationale for his decisions. He ought to have done that yesterday.
Too many of the models have been off the mark. The surge of patients that would have overrun hospitals and ICUs never occurred. Many hospitals have empty beds. The newly converted McCormick Place hospital is almost vacant. Self-quarantining and social distancing helped, but that does not change the fact that the first models overstated the potential impact of the COVID-19 virus spread.
Governor Pritzker has to do better. His messaging needs to improve.
Comment by Practical Politics Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:38 am
=== Like his predecessors he has his eyes on…===
He’s been governor for 10 minutes, a POTUS run is in 5 years… maybe.
Take a breath. He may want exposure but for what?
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:44 am
This is/was a mistake on Pritzker’s part, for all the reasons Rich mentions. I hope he owns up to it at today’s press conference.
Comment by thunderspirit Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:44 am
My opinion is that the models weren’t right in the first place, and also, yes, things change over time. However, a model that predicted a 60,000 loss of life by August and now says 68,000 loss of life by August cannot possibly be taken seriously As of today, the count of loss of US life is over 45,000. Today - April 22nd. With US death totals running between 1600 and 2700 daily.
Comment by thoughts matter Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 11:55 am
=Like his predecessors he has his eyes on DC.=
His predecessors didn’t go to DC, they went to jail.
Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 12:01 pm
these guys start running for prez, mistake. Handle your state business and the rest will follow. you not going to outshine the California governor or Cuomo anyway, so take care of the state please.
Comment by 44th Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 12:27 pm
Science is a never-finished process of sorting and (hopefully) getting closer to the truth. Modeling is often the same. Input changes the output. BTW, few of us would understand the input or the equations. Be happy with seeing the output and some commentary on causes from the experts. This is not a conspiracy.
Comment by Simple Simon Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 12:30 pm
The reopening of the State, to any meaningful degree, shouldn’t occur until the official school year ends. I’ve been saying this for weeks to friends and Gov. Cuomo said it today in his briefing. We might see some trial run openings of different aspects of the economy starting mid May, but the bigger sectors shouldn’t occur until the end of “school.”
Comment by Chiatty Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 12:50 pm
Models are only as good as the data. Science is only as good as what’s known. When you don’t always know and the data your using is almost assuredly incomplete then the models have to move.
We should be able to understand this if its communicated correctly.
But I’ve been wondering about new data, from perhaps dubious blood tests, that shows in LA and parts of Boston that the infection rate is way higher than ever considered.
Those numbers of once sick people and the result of us never really knowing about them or counting them should lead experts to recalculate some of these outcomes.
The virus is now (possibly) moving around a population with a greater number of people already infected than we ever knew. That has to lower infection rates, drop the peak and cut the projected death rates.
Comment by Cool Papa Bell Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 12:53 pm
Let’s hope his estimates on the peak are more accurate than his 4000-7000 ventilator request.
Comment by Donnie Elgin Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 12:54 pm
Fame is a powerful drug.
Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 1:07 pm
3-D checkers. Yeah, that’s the ticket. JB Pritzker is intoxicated with his own newfound fame.
Comment by Soccermom Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 1:21 pm
Arock — how are you going to keep people from moving across county lines?
Comment by Soccermom Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 1:22 pm
Have someone working with the models do a guest spot at the daily briefing to explain what the input are and what they see
Comment by In 630 Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 1:24 pm
==However, a model that predicted a 60,000 loss of life by August and now says 68,000 loss of life by August cannot possibly be taken seriously==
Failure to take it seriously ignores the details about the model. These are details that are publicly disclosed.
Just in the last week Illinois has had a variation in daily new cases that range from 1,140 to 1,842 that’s more than a 20% spread above and below the average number. A change from 60,000 to 68,000 is just over 11% and isn’t surprising with the amount of daily fluctuations from the states and the nation overall. Furthermore, the director of that group explained yesterday that the increase was largely due to the changes from the CDC that require reporting presumptive positives from nursing homes.
Comment by muon Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 2:12 pm
===Yeah, that’s the ticket. JB Pritzker is intoxicated with his own newfound fame.===
His tongue seems a little more loose. It happens to a lot of people. Why, do you he planned it that way? Wouldn’t that be even more insulting? He breaks news for national TV and stonewalls the local reporters.
Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 2:13 pm
If we don’t start reopening sooner rather than later there won’t be anything left to reopen. Small business owners can’t go more weeks without income when they still have loans and rent payments due not to mention insurance and utilities. And that’s before even thinking about payroll.
Comment by Downstate Illinois Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 2:27 pm
Muon
you didn’t get my point. The model was never correct to begin with. We are going to pass 68,000 within a couple weeks… and that is before states open up too early. The real loss of life is going to be much greater than the model predicts. Therefore I don’t trust anything else the model predicts.
Comment by thoughts matter Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 2:29 pm
Except for current POTUS, there are two paths to WH. Senator was a log jam. J.B. took the worst job in US hoping he might have success and be catapulted to national stage as a prudent caring democrat.
BVR had same idea but as a tea party messiah. He underestimated MJM resolve and intelligence.
Comment by Bruce Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 2:33 pm
=== there are two paths to WH…===
… five to NINE years from now.
This crisis is causing 15 hour days, multiple phone conferences, briefing, trying to get PPE, getting testing supplies…
You thinking… “what I need to do is take this time instead of working the problem figure out a path… 5 years from now?
Cripes, the Governor faces re-elect in 2022…
One election at a time.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 2:37 pm
thoughts matter - Whether you trust that model or not, I want my governor to being using some data-driven model to make decisions. I also hope that the model is transparent in the data that it uses and the assumptions it makes.
You say that the model was wrong to begin with because you don’t agree with its prediction. Is the model wrong in its selection of data or its assumptions? When I criticized aspects of the model earlier in the month I noted specifically which data points were wrong and how those would impact its predictions. Since then they have corrected that data and they continue to explain exactly what assumptions they change with each update.
Comment by muon Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 3:05 pm
Nothing burger.
Comment by Miso Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 3:34 pm
As the Governor discussed at the press conference today, modeling is an inexact science. With this specific situation we have 2 major obstacles. The first is we are all in foreign territory. Experts can made estimations based on the behavior of other coronaviruses, but COVID19 could act differently. Secondly, any model has to take into account human behavior. It’s difficult to make human behavior an exact science. As we’ve seen the last few days, not everybody is going to abide by the restrictions put in place to slow the spread. So I think it’s important for the Governor to be very transparent about the various models and the assumptions made so we can have an understanding of the thought process and the reasoning for the decisions made. It’s not enough to say “it’s science, trust us” because it’s not 100% accurate science and experts can disagree. The best solution is a consensus among experts and it’s smart that Illinois is relying on multiple experts from different universities.
Comment by MyTwoCents Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 4:01 pm
“We’re the ones he governs. We’re the ones whose very lives and livelihoods depend on the governor’s every decision. If he’s not willing to answer questions at home, then he shoudn’t go on national media and answer theirs”
Rich - this is the same as the legislators complaints that you dismissed a few weeks back. The Legislators are the ones that are being beat up by their residents, and the residents are demanding answers and yet the Governor would rather not give Legislators the time of day and go on TV and drop huge announcements without any forewarning to the people dealing with the public - which is the Legislators. Some acknowledgement of the ground work that Reps and Senators are dealing with, in addition real communication, is needed and the Gov just isn’t doing that as he should. We are all busy, we are all swamped, but the courtesy of communication of big events, or as you said, substantial change, is not being afforded to the legislature then how can you expect him to afford it for you? Sure some legislators, on one piece of paper, might have asked questions you didn’t think was relevant; however, the Gov should be making himself avail to the individuals that will eventually have to vote on his initiatives.
Comment by Legislator Wednesday, Apr 22, 20 @ 4:10 pm