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* Golden Horseshoe winner…
Let's have a look at how the tenure chart has changed in the past year and how it looks versus this point in the last General Assembly! https://t.co/XgwuubJu52 pic.twitter.com/jg7dxZnmFr
— John Amdor (@JohnAmdor) January 22, 2020
* Zooming in…
Discuss.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 10:22 am
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Gee, it’s almost as if we don’t need term limits.
Comment by Can Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 10:28 am
Because being a backbencher who gets scraps isn’t terribly appealing?
Comment by Valley City Roller Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 10:29 am
Surprised it’s that high. Being in the super-minority can’t be all that fulfilling.
Comment by Chicagonk Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 10:32 am
If the HRaunerites were “smart”, they’d ask those with 10+ years in their own caucus to step down and leave.
I’m sure Leader Durkin will get on that, but he’s running for another term so he might be too busy at the moment to pull for these term limits thingies.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 10:33 am
So, either they get sick of the job, or the voters get sick of them.
Or, as with the disparity of cash on hand, the Dems simply out-hustle the Repubs.
Comment by efudd Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 10:34 am
If you take Madigan’s tenure out of the equation I wonder what the House Dems numbers would look like.
Comment by West Side the Best Side Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 10:35 am
I don’t know why anyone would be that shocked by the numbers. For many people, being in the minority with less power than other state legislatures is a waste of time.
Comment by Steve Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 10:36 am
“with less power than other state legislatures”
So, they pick up their marbles and go home?
Again, out-hustled.
Comment by efudd Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 10:40 am
Is this not the legacy of Rauner on Illinois Republicans? My way or I’ll make things tough on you? How many diverse thinking victims decided to spend more time with their families. We are only left with mostly the Rauner enablers who now are the senior party members.
Comment by Gobblers Knob Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 10:48 am
Isn’t it easier to write “Durkin, Brady and Sommer?” /s
Comment by Not for Nothing Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 10:50 am
==Again, out-hustled.==
Might want to add, severely out-spent. There are plenty of spenders who aren’t hustlers.
Comment by A Guy Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 10:51 am
=Gee, it’s almost as if we don’t need term limits.=
The voters are term limiting them instead.
=“with less power than other state legislatures”
So, they pick up their marbles and go home?
Again, out-hustled.=
That is the new GOP trope these days. Everything is unfair, we constantly hear that from all of the tough-guy republicans.
Maybe they think we will miss them?
Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 10:51 am
- efudd -
The rules in Illinois give much more power to the majority than in other states. It’s sort of like a variant of The Curley Effect in outcome.
https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/shleifer/files/curley_effect.pdf
Comment by Steve Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 10:52 am
=== severely out-spent===
LOL
That $50 million “no $&@#% problems” threat turned into drying up the cash because Rauner was so unpopular, and like the bust out artist he was, he lit a match and let the party burn.
The ROI wasn’t worth it.
You supported Rauner, - A Guy -, was it really they were outspent or did Rauner decide to hang the party out to dry.
Before you answer, ask the Senate folks who, I guess, are still waiting for 2018 RaunerBucks.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 10:54 am
A Guy
So the Dems have held the GA for the better part of 4 decades because they don’t hustle?
Spin it any way that makes you feel better. Rauner snapped his wallet shut and the ILGOP are on the street with a cup in their hand.
All this proves is what I’ve always known.
Despite the faux bravado and chest-thumping, a conservative is the first one to cry foul, sulk, and go home.
Comment by efudd Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 10:56 am
HGOP has the least tenure as a direct result of Rauner. They were the caucus carrying his water until they weren’t and then they left. I think it started with a big group leaving midway though Rauner’s term.
Comment by Nagidam Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 11:00 am
So long as a the majority party draws the map and picks their own voters, the disparity will continue. Yes, agaiust all odds, voters so picked will rebel, but more often than not the majority of races are uncontested for a not so good reason. The map. Rich did a great job of reporting on the Senate President race and the desire of certain senators to continue serving on committees that will help draw up new legislative maps during that entire recent process. Picking their own voters? Reform? In Illinois? Nah . . .
Comment by Louis G Atsaves Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 11:05 am
Steve, I had no idea you’d post a paper on political theory based on actions from the early 20th century.
My, that changes everything.
Comment by efudd Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 11:06 am
An awful lot of R experience headed for the door after the impasse and the threat of Rauner vengeance. The man fundamentally broke the Republican party. Gonna be a long path back and following the path of Trump and 51st staters is just going to take them further into the wilderness.
Comment by The Way I See It Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 11:12 am
Lol, the HDems median v. average years served is a great example of why median is a better stat than average. Madigan’s long tenure skews the average service time by about a third, which tends to distort the picture these.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 11:12 am
Big ol nothing burger. The medians are quite similar over the past few years. The Senate median for both parties is somewhere between 2-3 elections, depending on how the election calendar breaks out and the House median is 3 elections for democrats and 2 for republicans. Leadership positions are almost always going to distort averages so those don’t really tell us much.
Comment by Randomly Selected Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 11:25 am
So the GOPie clown car continues to run slowest laps is they are new?
Comment by Annonin' Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 11:25 am
==So the Dems have held the GA for the better part of 4 decades because they don’t hustle?==
Some definitely do. Some definitely don’t. Rauner’s generosity is growing in legend the longer he’s been away. If he wasn’t spoken about on this board, he wouldn’t be spoken of at all.
Hustling is good. It’s important. You can hustle and lose. To money.
Comment by A Guy Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 11:27 am
= So long as a the majority party draws the map and picks their own voters, the disparity will continue. =
In 2018, the Dems won seats in both the state house and Congress that were drawn to be GOP districts…
Comment by cover Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 11:29 am
==Lol, the HDems median v. average years served is a great example of why median is a better stat than average. Madigan’s long tenure skews the average service time by about a third, which tends to distort the picture these==
Don’t forget Mary Flowers and her 35 years…those help skew the average too. Take out those two alone and the average drops by more than a year.
Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 11:30 am
=== Rauner’s generosity is growing in legend the longer he’s been away.===
Narrator: Rauner did fund the ILGOP, and the Caucuses, including the $50 million he used to hold them hostage.
We’re not going to White-Wash the severe damage Rauner did, and how he pulled the plug on funding.
Nope. Sorry. No.
=== If he wasn’t spoken about on this board, he wouldn’t be spoken of at all.===
Denying he existed and ruined the party is might be how YOU like it… but it happened.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 11:31 am
Bruce Rauner sent a lot of Republicans with a lot of seniority packing: Poe, Moffitt, Bellock, Leitch, Sullivan to name a few. McAulliffe was also a casualty of the Rauner War.
Comment by Thomas Paine Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 11:43 am
Gop pension reform not there long enough to get one
Comment by Rabid Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 11:49 am
New GOP Motto “We’ve got an Excuse For Everything”
“They have more money, unfair”
“Our sugar daddies quit us, unfair”
“The map is unfair”
“They aren’t hustling”
“They are out hustling us”
Was it also to sunny and too cloudy at the same time?
Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 12:02 pm
Citizen legislators who serve their time with zero possibility of accruing 2 million in pension benefits?
What a novel concept
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 12:10 pm
efudd, it’s official. No one has chosen a better and more reflective nickname than you.
Comment by A Guy Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 12:15 pm
JSM +1
“You keep bringing up the national ticket.”
“You remind voters that our candidates are Holocaust deniers, deep staters, or violate orders of protection.”
Comment by Jocko Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 12:17 pm
“If he wasn’t spoken about on this board, he wouldn’t be spoken of at all.”
To be honest, the same is true of the IL GOP.
– MrJM
Comment by @misterjayem Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 12:22 pm
=== Bruce Rauner sent a lot of Republicans with a lot of seniority packing===
Rauner didn’t want $&@#% problems.
The problem now is looking at all those Rauner chased off… the implosion of the ILGOP took place the instant Rauner took the oath.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 12:31 pm
@Steve 10:52. Not sure I agree that it’s worse in Illinois than in other states. I think the folks in Pennsylvania, North Carolina might disagree with you too.
Comment by Steve Rogers Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 1:15 pm
==So long as the majority party draws the map and picks their own voters, the disparity will continue.==
I’d say that the Madigan-Cullerton remap wasn’t intended to maximize Democratic seats, and it didn’t.
It was designed to benefit Madigan, Cullerton, and their favorites, and it did.
The tables — nice work by Amdor — indicate a downward trend in tenure since the last election. You might say that the discussion of term limits is being whittled down to a particular term limit of a particular official.
Comment by Anonanonsir Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 2:33 pm
=So long as a the majority party draws the map and picks their own voters, the disparity will continue.=
And yet there isn’t a single Republican in state-wide office. Explain how the map is to blame for that?
Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 3:00 pm
Rauner was all in on term limits and by golly he got his way with his main supporters in the GA.
Comment by Nagidam Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 3:16 pm
Term limits refer to ne guy - Speaker- a Senator with 14 years is in the top 10
Comment by Flyer Wednesday, Jan 22, 20 @ 3:55 pm
A couple more years and I don’t imagine we’ll hear a whole lot about term limits out of the GOP.
Perhaps as an aside, short legislative terms can be indicative of legislative salaries not being sufficient. Illinois already pays significantly better than some of it’s neighbors, but in general my belief is that being an elected official ought to have enough salary connected to it that it is sufficient enough to allow a person to focus on representing their constituents without fear of significant negative economic impacts.
Frequently legislators across the country with long tenures rely on outside income to support themselves which closes the door for working poor, lower class, or at least the bottom half of the middle class from being able to be representatives.
In Illinois County Supervisors in down state rural counties make more than our state legislators do and with fewer work commitments which causes many of the candidates to effectively self finance to keep their seats and causes for a humorous amount of yard signs in lieu of other more effective and labor intensive campaign tactics.
Comment by Candy Dogood Thursday, Jan 23, 20 @ 8:36 am
=== The rules in Illinois give much more power to the majority===
The rules are based off, almost verbatim, from the rules Speaker Lee A. Daniels introduced
You’re welcome.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 23, 20 @ 9:10 am