Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: Taiwan helps pick up the slack from lost Illinois ag sales to China
Next Post: “Quit the fighting and work it out”
Posted in:
* Market Watch…
The most sensitive manufacturing sectors are those that produce items whose purchase can be delayed until better economic times. Textbook examples of these sectors are cars and trucks, fleet vehicles, recreational vehicles, washer, dryers and other appliances, as well as business equipment. The production of many of these items, especially cars, trucks and RVs, are clustered in the industrialized Midwest states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Illinois.
Manufacturing employment across the Midwest is now in decline. The two most manufacturing-intensive states in the nation, Wisconsin and Indiana, both have fewer factory jobs than at this point in 2018. Both Michigan and Ohio are six months into decline, and have fewer jobs than at the end of 2018. Only Illinois experienced factory job growth in 2019, and is up 400 jobs over the start of the year.
These states are ground zero in a trade war that has reduced the demand for steel and autos and led to a crushing, nearly 17% collapse in recreation vehicle sales this year.
Overall employment across the region is more stable. Only Indiana saw total employment down from the same month last year. Wisconsin and Ohio are close behind, with modest job losses since the start of the year. Both Michigan and Illinois are growing slowly over the year.
Though it may not be a formal recession, these states are almost certain to feel employment and income losses equivalent to a modest recession, say like in 1990-1991 or 2001.
400 ain’t much, but at least it isn’t a decline. Illinois has traditionally been one of the last states to slip into recession and among the last to emerge. Trouble is, for a variety of reasons (including the extreme uncertainty created by the impasse), Illinois has only recently emerged from the doldrums.
Also, this state’s fiscal condition has never been the same since the 2001 recession. On just about every aspect, Illinois peaked in Fiscal Year 2000.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 12:08 pm
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: Taiwan helps pick up the slack from lost Illinois ag sales to China
Next Post: “Quit the fighting and work it out”
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
I know they like blaming the trade war for everything but this seems to be a cyclic auto decline. Auto sales have been pretty juiced up for several years.
Comment by Not a Billionaire Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 12:14 pm
Any gain is good news for us.
Comment by Former State Worker Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 12:23 pm
===this state’s fiscal condition has never been the same since the 2001 recession. On just about every aspect, Illinois peaked in Fiscal Year 2000.===
Why is the $64,000 question. And save the IPI slant.
Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 12:25 pm
Wait when Rivian goes into startup mode and start adding to the number.
Comment by Truthteller Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 12:32 pm
The other thing about manufacturing employment is factories are eager to automate everything they can. So over time you can see steady or stagnating
jobd with increasing output.
But I don’t see how the trade war is dumping on RVs either.
Comment by Fav human Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 12:32 pm
Thanks Mike Madigan.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 12:36 pm
Market watch got it wrong. Indiana and Wisconsin have the largest percentage of workers in the manufacturing industry, but the largest manufacturing states by numbers of people are CA,TX, OH, PA, and IL.
Sorry to hear about our neighbors’ troubles and hoping this ridiculous trade war ends soon.
Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 12:48 pm
Thanks Bruce Rauner.
Comment by Blue Dog Dem Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 12:56 pm
Good thing we have RtW. /s
Comment by Skeptic Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 1:44 pm
Wait, what happened with all of these Indianans and Indiana sympathists who proclaimed it as the greatest state to live in the midwest?
Comment by Alex Ander Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 2:10 pm
== Illinois has traditionally been one of the last states to slip into recession and among the last to emerge. ==
Yes. Traditionally, 6-9 months behind going in and 9-12 months coming out.
== Trouble is, for a variety of reasons (including the extreme uncertainty created by the impasse), Illinois has only recently emerged from the doldrums. ==
Rich, I suspect one of the unstated reasons might be a shift to just in time delivery. While that doesn’t really work for capital goods like cars and appliances, the manufacturers have (mostly) gotten better at inventory control and holding down the amount of warehoused goods.
== Auto sales have been pretty juiced up for several years. ==
And artificially so through rebates and 0% financing to the point a brand new car makes more sense than a good late model car.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 2:21 pm
==Indianans and Indiana sympathists who proclaimed it as the greatest state to live in the midwest?==
Probably working, what with the 3.3% unemployment rate and all.
Comment by City Zen Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 2:26 pm
“Wait, what happened with all of these Indianans and Indiana sympathists who proclaimed it as the greatest state to live in the midwest?”
When will they walk the walk and actually move there, with those lower median incomes, ranked 35th and 40th?
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 4:33 pm
Every state sharing a geographic border with Illinois in the last two years has enacted a policy-based reform effort to K-12 education by centralizing support of Computer Science education.
Instead of pulling all our state graduates in CS from other countries, what if IL were to join its neighbors in enacting similar reform to bring CS Education to all 852 of its own school districts, thereby increasing likelihood that the talent coming through our colleges/universities is home-grown?
From the latest Sept 2019 Conference Board and Bureau of Labor stats: 20478 unfilled computing jobs in IL, w/ av salary of all IL computing jobs at $90919. Multiply 20478 * 90919, and let the product speak for itself.
A LOT more $$ brought into state GDP than legalization of marijuana.
Just sayin’.
Comment by It Doesn’t Have to Be This Way Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 7:48 pm
I’m all for teaching more computer science, but think about it: who is moving to Illinois right now, by the hundreds? Recent college graduates, from all over the Midwest.
To where are they moving? The north side of Chicago (although Bridgeport/Pilsen are also attracting these people).
Why? Because of all that Chicago offers young, smart people.
Cities are growing all over the country because that’s where you, smart people want to live and work.
If the Eastern Bloc succeeds, God help them. Without a robust immigration effort, no one is going to move to rural Illinois. And the people most opposed to immigration…
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 7:54 pm
@47th Ward
I’ll offer up the note on my Honda Ridgeline and my Harley that the Eastern Bloc won’t succeed on their quest to dissolve the state… in this decade or any.
I’d also offer up the same in asserting you’re correct on Chicago being the destination of those who choose to move into Illinois.
All the same, how many of our current K-12 students choose to major in computer science in an Illinois-based college/university? Both Rauner and Pritzker have cited in speeches over the past two years (Rauner: final State of the State; Pritzker: Inauguration) that IL is home to nearly half of all college graduates nationwide with a CS degree.
That’s awesome, except until you delve into the data and research the percentage of those graduates who came up through our own K-12 education system.
Comment by It Doesn’t Have to Be This Way Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 8:41 pm
Even the graduates who come up with a computer science education end up moving to Chicago. Or the coasts.
Bemoan the lack of emphasis on this important educationalall you want, the fact remains, until there are employment/lifestyle benefits of living in rural Illinois, these talented people are headed to cities like Chicago. Adapt or die.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Sep 25, 19 @ 8:54 pm
Smaller cities downstate are very aggressively growing their technology sectors, at the same time offering more opportunities in workforce development for students that do not want a four year degree. I see cities from 3,000 to 200,000 growing in employment opportunities and employers begging for good employees. The agriculture sector has had a rough summer with terrible weather and trumps trade war that is only hurting Americans, they are looking forward to higher costs, lower yields in some areas and lower prices, thank heavens for the Taiwan deals.
Comment by Uncle Ernie Thursday, Sep 26, 19 @ 8:58 am