* I’ve been wondering about this for weeks, mentioned the theory in Capitol Fax and I think here as well…
But a source close to [Chicago Democratic Congressman Luiz Gutierrez] said it is not yet certain that the congressman would stick with his decision to retire. Gutierrez had flirted with the idea of challenging Mayor Richard Daley in the February election, before changing tack and giving the mayor his warm endorsement.
Now the source said Gutierrez is “giving some serious thought to running again” for his seat in the U.S. House. The recent failure of an immigration-reform plan in Washington is among the factors that could prompt a change of heart for Gutierrez, the source said.
Gutierrez did not return calls seeking comment Monday.
* Meanwhile…
State Sen. Chris Lauzen (R-Aurora), among several conservatives eyeing [Denny] Hastert’s seat, has raised about $9,000 for a potential run.
Democrat Mark Pera received more than $54,000 and lent his campaign $86,000 as he prepared a primary challenge to U.S. Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Ill.), who raised almost $200,000, in the 3rd Congressional District on Chicago’s Southwest Side and suburbs.
* And…
• Illinois’ 8th District (Northwest Cook County — Schaumberg; parts of Lake and McHenry counties). Two-term Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean has raised more than $1 million in the first half of this year, after a second quarter in which she raised $552,000; most of the incumbent’s sum came from political action committees. Bean had $803,000 on hand on July 1 as she prepares for a 2008 campaign in which she may be opposed by Republican Steve Greenberg, who filed candidacy papers earlier this month.
• Illinois’ 10th District (North and northwest Chicago suburbs — Waukegan). This contest surely will be among the most expensive in the nation. Republican Rep. Mark Steven Kirk, a prominent GOP centrist in this politically competitive district, took in $617,000 in the second quarter, bringing his year-to-date take to $1.3 million — more than the $1 million that Kirk raised in the first six months of 2005 prior to his last contest. The Feb. 5 primary will include Dan Seals, a marketing executive who was Kirk’s 2006 Democratic opponent; he raised $251,000 in the second quarter and $264,000 since the beginning of this year. Seals does not have a clear field to a rematch, though. His primary opponent, lawyer Jay Footlik, raised $287,000 in the second quarter; Footlik served in the Clinton administration as a liaison to the American Jewish community, and his report includes donations by some former Clinton administration officials.
This is - yet another - 2008 congressional campaign open thread.
*** UPDATE *** If Congressman Gutierrez is running again, his fundraising this quarter doesn’t show it. Gutierrez raised just $10,500 this quarter and he had a bit more than $81,000 in cash on hand.
- Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 10:51 am:
What is the NYT definition of “centrist”?
If “centrist” means a principled moderate who is willing to buck party leadership, Kirk is certainly not a “centrist”.
If “centrist” means a Republican who favors abortion rights then Kirk is a “centrist”.
- Downtown - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 11:40 am:
The fact that Luis has backed off his statement means he will run again. He has nothing better to do.
- Mr. Luxury Yacht - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 11:50 am:
A sitting IL State Sen. Lauzen raises only nine grand to go for a seat that may actually be open while Mark Pera (a grassroots local elected official from Lyons without the Clintonite rolodex) goes from 0 to $54K ($115K total) in Q2? Sounds like the disparity in fundraising that Obama and Hillary have over Romney and Rudy translates directly to problems for the GOP in Illinois.
Let’s see if the D-trip spends more to swing Hastert’s vacated seat into the D column or on keeping The Accidental Congressman in place in a safe D district (IL-03) rather than having, you know, an Actual Democrat.
- El Gallito - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 11:58 am:
As many other politicians, Gutierrez, loves the spotlight. Even though he is up in seniority and democrats became the majority during last election cycle, Gutierrez holds no leadership position and only one chairmanship of a Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy Trade and Technology. – So the talks that he is thinking to remain in that seat because democrats control the house and a better chance to climb up awaits him are bull.
I’m pretty sure he will hold on to that sit as long as he possibly can or as long as a good offer comes from the powers be to move him onto a higher or better spot. More than likely if he is no longer the seating congressman of that district his chances to be ask to bring help for a campaign become dimmer as well as his possibilities to be appointed to a cabinet position with a new democratic federal administration.
As far as the money he currently has available for his re-election, there should be no problem for him to raise a sizable amount of money to set him up for re-election. He might be hated and/or love by many, but one thing is for sure, he is a savvy political figure in Chicago and a ruthless adversary when he wishes to become one.
- bored now - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 12:14 pm:
i’d be interested in knowing what the demise of the immigration bill has on luis’ thinking. there’s been a lot of idle speculation about his intentions since january, although he’s said to have assured all the major candidates for his seat that he will follow through on his plans…
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 1:11 pm:
he’s running
- Underdog - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 1:12 pm:
It seems like Lipinski feels vulnerable - I get a nice glossy pamphlet from him about once a month extolling his virtues as a congressman. Very pork/feel good/bricks and mortar stuff.
Franking - because raising your own money for elections is for amateurs.
It will be interesting to see what the Madigan/Daley/Lipinski brain trust have up their sleeves in this one. My money is on the Irish-named plant, but just to be safe, they could run a Latino plant as well.
- ArchPundit - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 1:21 pm:
===Let’s see if the D-trip spends more to swing Hastert’s vacated seat into the D column or on keeping The Accidental Congressman in place in a safe D district (IL-03) rather than having, you know, an Actual Democrat.
All indications are DCCC is not bothering. The essential issue is that Lipinski should be able to handle it himself.
- woe is me - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 1:26 pm:
Guttierrez would win relection with zero $ in his account. His name recognition is too high for anyone to overcome in the 4th cd.
- paddyrollingstone - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 2:01 pm:
I am with most of the commenters as I can’t see why Gutierrez would leave office with no other gig on the horizon. Really, what else is he going to do? He could lobby I suppose but my money is that he runs again.
- Mr. Luxury Yacht - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 2:48 pm:
“The essential issue is that Lipinski should be able to handle it himself.”
Exactly. Folks in the D power structure know how tenuous Rep. William Lipinski’s Kid’s hold on power (WHAT power?) is. They and friends in DC who would perhaps help someone of stature are going to sit on their hands.
This idea that Bill’s Kid is somehow going to continue to get a pass is so 2006.
And I just deleted lots of other snarky stuff I’d typed ‘cuz I like Rich and besides it’s just not sporting.
- Jerry - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 2:50 pm:
it would be poor form for the D-Trip to interfere in the IL-3 primary. Lipinski’s on his own. The D-Trip will spend money if a Republican mounts a strong challenge in the general, regardless of who wins, if only to ensure the seat remains Democratic.
The D-Trip would only spend money in 14 if Foster loses the primary and Hastert retires. If Hastert stays on Board, no money will be spent. If Foster wins and Hastert retires, no money will be spent (Foster said he’s self funding $1 million). That money can be better spent elsewhere.
Of course, things can change. But, as a Dem, I’d be pretty pissed if the D-Trip interefered in IL-3 to support Lipinski.
The only campaign I can see the D-Trip getting heavily involved in is IL-10 general election. Perhaps in Bean’s campaign if her opponent runs a strong challenge and she needs the help.
If Gutierrez stays in at this point, things will get interesting, with Flores and his half million banked. All those donors apparently want Manny to be Congressman. Seeing as how Manny and company only entered the race because they thought Luis was retiring, that’ll become an odd race. I know Gutierrez was a mentor for Flores, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he wasn’t a mentor for one (or all) of the others. And with all those donations coming in, I can’t imagine the donors would be happy if the candidates rolled over in deference to Gutierrez. But, it would be tough to run against your mentor.
- Wumpus - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 2:52 pm:
Who will beat Luis in that district? He is running.
- Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 2:56 pm:
I read the Phil Kadner (Daily Southtown) column Rich linked to.
Here’s my question about Dan Lipinski: how popular is the guy in DC?
It seems borderline creepy for him to be sleeping in his office.
Why doesn’t he get a member of Congress as a housemate and use the experience to deepen his friendship with another member of Congress?
Who are Dan Lipinski’s friends in Congress? Or in DC generally? And how loyal are these friends to Lipinski?
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 2:59 pm:
Several congressmen sleep in their DC offices to save money. It’s probably more common than you think.
- Esteban - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 3:00 pm:
Unless Luis G. had a primary contest, he wouldn’t
even need to spend his cash on hand to get re-elected to the House.
- Dieter - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 3:12 pm:
Schaumburg is spelled with a ‘u’, not an ‘e’.
CD 14 - Oberweis can self-finance, Lauzen cannot. This will still turn into a battle royale, unless Hastert wins the nomination, then retires before the general election.
CD 8- Steve Greenberg is a poor man’s David McSweeney, he will get rolled much worse than his predecessor. Word on the street is he’s retained a lot of consultants, but no staff. Shades of John McCain, anyone?
CD 10 - An intense Democrat primary will ensure that Mark Steven Kirk remains a Congressman.
CD 3 - Watch for a third candidate, JC, to enter the Democratic primary very soon.
- Team Sleep - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 4:36 pm:
Carl, a D.C. apartment is upwards of $1,500. I’m sure that keeping two residences is a bit much for them, and I believe he has kids.
Lipinski spends way too much $$$ on mailers and franked mail. It makes me wonder how much his staff is paid and what else he uses his yearly Congressional office budget for.
Dieter, I know Greenberg’s campaign manager. I think Greenberg will do okay but Bean raised $1 mil in six months! She’s a machine.
- Anon - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 5:41 pm:
The press seems to forget (or make a concerted effort to ignore) that there’s another person that has filed papers for a candidacy in the 10th. Navy Vet, David Kalbfleisch.
Kalbfleisch could sweep in and take the anti-war vote. It’ll definitely be interesting.
http://www.electdave.org/
- Team Wake Up - Tuesday, Jul 17, 07 @ 5:55 pm:
Greenberg’s campaign manager has relatively little experience. He’s never RUN a campaign before and has never been part of a WINNING campaign (Jack Ryan, Teresa Bartels, Kathy Salvi).
When you are trying to unseat an incumbent, you usually want some experience on your side.
Just my two cents.
Good luck.
- Humboldt Park - Wednesday, Jul 18, 07 @ 6:25 am:
Guttierrez can’t leave because if he does Mayor daley and his allies,HDO will take control of the seat.The four canididates running for office are vying to replace Guttierrez,but onlt two are true progressives.Those two are and have been associated with the last reform and progressive movement left in Chicago.Those two are Munoz and Maldonado! The other two,Solis and Flores, are part of Daley’s power grab into the district.
Guttierrez’s district is the most diverse and the closest resemblance of America in Congress.From Yuppies to the poor, from large white population,black and hispanic populations, to large diverse economic diversity,this district truely represents a cross shot of America!
As Daley and HDO try to build up there favorite canididate,Solis,they have also hedged there bets by also supporting Flores.Either of the two would serve King Richard very well and would be loyal to him and his needs!Daley and his Army,with his lapdog Solis have even tried to intimidate the last progressives(Maldonado and Munoz), and are rumored to be involved in getting the Feds to raid little vilage to pressure Munoz.Rumor has it if Munoz steps down from the race,his father’s charges would be dropped.Munoz was noted to have responded with a comment of no way will he step down!
If Daley,HDO,Solis and Flores continue in there pursuit to take over the district, and Munoz and Maldonado get weakened, Guttierrez has no other choice than to run again to keep the seat in the hands of the last progressive movement in Chicago and Daley be damned!
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jul 18, 07 @ 12:10 pm:
Steve Greenburg has bankrupted two businesses. Is that who you want in Congress?
- Scott M. - Friday, Jul 20, 07 @ 3:41 pm:
If anyone’s interested in either of the two democratic candidates in Illinois’ 10th District, they will both be at a huge fundraiser for the Tenth Congressional District Democrats. The guest speaker is George McGovern and it’s going to be on Saturday, July 28th. For more information, go to www.tenthdems.org!