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Question of the day
Tuesday, Sep 19, 2006 Handicap your local state legislative race. Notice, I didn’t say Congress. This is for state legislative races only, please. Also, tell us what, if anything, is happening in that race.
- Posted by Rich Miller
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- Lovie's Leather - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 8:55 am:
This one is really easy…
Don Moffitt 100%
Dale Risinger wins 75-25
David Leich 100%
Wow… Peoria democrats have really dropped the ball. Aren’t even running candidates for the house in 73rd or 74th district…
- Fouts - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 9:24 am:
Bob Rita is my state rep and he should win. His opponent Arvin Bodie is a well rounded and excellent candidate but he does not have the support of such heavies as Emil Jones. Rita wins 65-35%.
- fedup dem - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 9:27 am:
You must be having problems coming up with ideas, Rich. I doubt if there are a dozen legislative races in the state that will be decided by less than a 15-point margin. Most of the races were decided last December, when the incumbents either filed without opposition or without any real opposition in either the primary or general elections.
- YR - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 9:34 am:
I’m still guessing Judy Myers by about 15 points. There’s been a ton of news in this district between the ballot access battle with the Socialist Equality candidate Joe Parnarauskis, and the debate struggle between the three. Not to mention, dueling news conferences on the U-of-I quad about every other day.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 9:38 am:
“Fouts,” apparently you weren’t aware that Boddie was removed from the ballot. Check here.
And “fedup,” I just figured some folks might want to talk about this. I doubt it’ll get many comments unless the partisan staffs start weighing in, which, frankly, I hope they do.
- Marie - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 9:40 am:
I can never remember who my state rep is until I go to some event and see Ray Poe doing the cooking. Then it dawns on me. Great hot dogs. Sam Cahnman wins by a nose.
- YR - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 9:41 am:
And I’m guessing Naomi Jakobsson still wins…but it will be closer than people, especially Dems…think
- values matter - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 9:53 am:
Seems that the stars are lined up for Steve Haring in the 71st. After making a run at the House in 2004, he’s trying another run and this time it may happen. Voter disenchantment with incumbents, combined with an incumbent (Mike Boland) who voters aren’t sure wants to be their state rep after running for Congress and others, and you have the ingredients for a November 7 Boland loss.
- just watching - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 10:01 am:
Poe beats cahnman by 7
- Bill Baar - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 10:02 am:
What about Ruth Munson? What are the odds on her? Tom Cross seemed concerned.
- cermak_rd - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 10:09 am:
Lightford by a substantial margin over Ruback for State Senate. Ford over Helsabeck and Harris by a wide margin.
- cermak_rd - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 10:12 am:
And er um, even if Harris did win (8th House)(and I’m not sure if he’ll be on the ballot or not) he recently passed on.
- decatur boy - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 10:17 am:
Flip floping Flider( once a Republican, now a Madigan Chicago Democrat and once lobby for Illinois Power, now sticking it to his former employer) will lose to Dick Cain in a close contest. Flip flopping, in bed with Madigan and the Governor, and finally his pension votes and his reasoning will be his end.
- anon - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 10:19 am:
Marie -
There’s no way that Cahnman wins.
- Gordy Hulten - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 10:21 am:
Senator Judy Myers defeats Mike Frerichs.
For the latest news on that race, in the 52nd District in Champaign and Vermilion Counties, visit Illinipundit.
- Bridget Dooley - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 10:35 am:
In the 45th district, Democratic candidate Rob Bisceglie knocked on every door in the district by Labor Day. Aggressive field operations are continuing, some in collaboration with Tammy Duckworth. His fundraising doesn’t look too bad, either.
After beating Republican incumbent Roger Jenisch in the primary, Franco Coladipietro just sort of disappeared. I am betting that he digs out his monstrous stash of huge signs and sticks them all over the district just about a month out when early voting begins.
I am not sure how this race will go. Of course, I would like for Bisceglie to take it, but you never know.
I’ll tentatively call it for Coladipietro by a very small margin.
- NW burbs - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 10:36 am:
I think there will be a few very close surprises in purpling NW Cook in those open and quasi-open seats.
Depends if Billie Diane Sally Jo Francene “Too many names” Roth can keep it together long enough and if Matt “I was for the uber-right before I was sorta kinda not as much for it because I won the primary and have to moderate” Murphy continues to backtrack from his extremism and whether or not Cheryl “The Phantom” Axley bothers to leave her stool at Mrs. P and Me.
Well-liked incumbents like Mathias will pull down the usual landslide. And, as is typical, many of the incumbents can sleep all the way to election day because they have no opponent.
- Southern Ilinois Democrat - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 10:47 am:
My state rep and senator are unopposed so my guesses for them are:
Stephens 100%
Watson (Angry Frank or Vandalia Frank) 100%
They will neither one get my vote. In a good race to watch, I think that Granberg will pull out another win over Cavalleto. It will be close though.
Granberg 53%
Cavaletto 47%
- Elmhurst Livin - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 11:10 am:
We’re seeing a lot about Joe Vosicky here. He has a great website up and running and is gathering endorsements like crazy. He’s canvassed all summer and has been doing coffees continually. He’s at all of the community events. He’s acting like a candidate who really cares.
His opponent has done nothing as far as I can see. What’s that about? Check out his website (if you can find one!)
- bipartisan - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 11:12 am:
Watson wisely has women running for the Senate…Axley, Roth, Wintermute, Simpson & Myers all win.
- Annoyed all the time - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 11:37 am:
Who is Wintermute? is that Teri from Will County?
- Squideshi - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 11:37 am:
Because Tom Cross is running unopposed, here’s my prediction for 84th District State Representative:
Tom Cross 100%
It’s a good thing that Illinois has such restrictive ballot access laws. Can you imagine the ballot clutter and confusion if voters had more than one choice in this race?
- Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 12:09 pm:
Yarbrough wins 100%; Lightford wins with 88-94%.
I’m curious whether the live Green (Nathan Helsabeck) beats the dead Republican (Glenn Harris) in the race against LaShawn Ford to replace Calvin Giles. I’m thinking Ford will get about 80-85%.
- SangoDem - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 12:39 pm:
All the women Sam Cahnman has unsuccesfully hit on will vote on election day, giving Raymond Poe a wide margin of victory. Giggidy.
- Eat'n Crow Dem - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 12:48 pm:
Thought we had a handle on the State! That was until The “Bag o chips” debacle….and who is riding his shirtail–Rep. Bob Flider– My Rep. who I thought was smart enough to stay away from the Blago hypocrisy has bought into it and become connected at the hip….and he will go down with Blago also…..unable to answer a question and being a closet Republican might do him in from his base! But He does have the money, what did it cost per vote last election….$1000.00?
Not looking good for Bob—my guess 52-48—-CAIN
- Frank - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 1:30 pm:
My guess is that my State Rep (John Bradley) will win… 95%. Also, I wish Gary Forby was up this election… I’d love to vote against him.
- Niles Township - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 1:43 pm:
This quesiton is only about six months late. Since when do general elections for state legislative races really matter. There so few truly competitive districts left. These races were really decided back during the primaries. Gerrymeandering wins the day.
- ElaObserver - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 2:38 pm:
Amanda Howland — Rep/51 — is smart, energetic, temperate and the Democratic challenger. Everything her opponent is not. But since her district is in Lake County, I’m betting Howland loses by 3.
In many respects it’s looking to be a repeat of Rep/62 from 2004. Another missed opportunity for the Democrats.
- Democrat - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 2:52 pm:
Peoria had a Democrat that wanted to run in the 73rd District but they would not back him. They said he didn’t have a chance to beat Rep. Leitch because he didn’t have name recognition and it is mostly a Republican District.He may not of been a good Candidate but any candidate is better than none.
- Establishment Republican - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 4:06 pm:
Matt Murphy wins open State Senate seat by about a 60-40 margin.
(By the way, his Democrat opponent has conducted a push-poll. I was one of the people who was selected to receive the call two weeks ago.)
And Republican incumbent Sid Mathias, after a challenging primary, wins the general election around 75-25. Things might have been more entertaining at least had atheist gadfly Rob Sherman received the Democrat nomination in this district.
- annon. - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 4:27 pm:
Cain close on the 101st …but NO cigar. Sorry !!! Flider wins but very close…closer the the England race of 04′ & by less than 2000 votes. In the clutch Flider can outspend Cain 10 to 1. Anyone remember 04′ & the 3/4 MILLION he spent to defeat England..it will happen again. That all came in the last 30 days. Despite his “lack-luster” record …he isn’t that joined at the hip as some would hope. He’s paid a little closer attention to the ball this time. The last time would have taken him off the radar if the House GOP had woke up & at least tried !! England darn near beat him …just got outspent when he needed it most. Predicition Flider 52%, Cain 48%.
- todd - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 4:59 pm:
Eric Wallace wins in senate 19, beats a do nothing rubberstamp, tax and spend Dem.
- St.T Dem - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 5:26 pm:
Good assesment annon however there is more money being spent by the Repub’s in this election, I am also concerned that Flider has become so tainted with his connection with Blagovich and I think Blagovich will be indicted before the election.
Look at all the signs that has both Blago and Flider together…I will hurt him downstate!
- Dawg - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 5:35 pm:
Rep. Mitchell wins hands down in the 87th! 100% of the vote! works hard for the people of his district
I will be voting for him!
- tough guy - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 6:10 pm:
Senator Deanna Demuzio 60%(maybe more), Jeff Ritchie 40%(maybe less). She’ll coast to election to fill her husband’s seat. Ritchie is not a bad guy, but has not done much as a Taylorville alderman. Plus he works for management at a utility company. I’d be curious to hear where he stands on the current utility flap!
- 101 - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 8:22 pm:
Flider is only a representative because of political deal with one of Madigan’s downstate puppets. He has sold out to Chicago to become a state rep. Something he could not obtain as a republican power company lobbyist. Cain will win with the Governor dragging flider down.
Who will Flider lobby for next?
- Cain is the word - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 8:29 pm:
Dick Cain is a winner defeating Flider who has sold his soul for the company line.
- Flider is disappointment - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 8:34 pm:
Bob Flider has been a disappointment to all the teachers downstate selling out their pensions for the Chicago teachers, shame on you.
- (618) Democrat - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 8:43 pm:
In the 108th, Iraq war veteran Brandt Patterson beats Reis, 52% to 48%.
- 2nd City Boy - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 9:54 pm:
42nd Senate, 83rd & 84th House
Holmes 48%
Wintermute 52%
LaVia 51%
Mitchell 49%
Cross 100%
- True Blue - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 11:13 pm:
Mike Frerichs will win in the 52nd, despite Gordy’s prediction to the contrary. Gordy works for Mike’s opponent (a fact he usually discloses), so I certainly can forgive his bias. Unions are strongly backing Frerichs, which will help him in Danville, Myers’ supposed base.
Naomi Jakobsson will win big, but probably with less than the 64% she got two years ago.
Third party candidates will be on the ballot in both of these races, which could make for interesting campaign moments. The Socialist Equality Party candidate running for the Senate seat wants to end the Iraq War and “nationalize” key industries in the state. The Green Party candidate running for State Rep. will probably get over 5% in November, making them an established party in the 103rd for 2008.
- Arthur Andersen - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 11:32 pm:
BLue, don’t bet your paycheck on Frerichs. He’s got more issues than a year’s subscription to Cap Fax. Whatever he pulls out of Vermilion he loses in Champaign, thanks to his strange, to be polite, tenure in County office. He also lost a couple union endorsements.
Anti-Dem sentiment is running very high over there thanks to Rod, pension cuts and U of I being funded at about 1978 levels (ok I’m exaggerating.) No way Naomi wins big, if at all.
Third parties in 52nd tend to take Dem votes-don’t see that this will be any different. Expect low campus turnout-no Pres or Obama on the ballot to bring them out. County party infighting also a problem. Repubs too disorganized to capitalize upon it and take back county board but could affect downballot races.
Agree with other posters that Flip Flop Flider is toast.
- The Fireman - Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 11:53 pm:
Sam Cahnman wins because of the open primary. A brilliant move on his part.
- Rattlehead - Wednesday, Sep 20, 06 @ 12:01 am:
Nice to see so many HGOP hacks on the board today regurgitating their candidates’ talking points.
- Roy Slade - Wednesday, Sep 20, 06 @ 8:06 am:
My legislative candidates are upopposed- as usual. However, the interesting race is the Granburg- John Cavaletto state rep seat (where my parents live). Granburg is in the race of his career- and is actually down in the district. Supposenly, he has Madigan staffers by the dozen here working for him- but the mood of the district has turned against him. He has always done well with educators and state workers (the districts largest employer is the state)- and both groups are solidly against him.
He is fortunate that six years ago, Madigan redistricted Sen Watson out of the area- because much to Kurts displeasure- Sen Watson is still “the guy”. In fact, the Senator had a fundraiser in Carlyle (not in his district, but in Kurts district)- and he had more people and raised more money than Kurt did at his fundraiser a month earlier. It just pisses Rep Granburg off when that happens!
The other “difference” is that John Cavelleto actually is qualified- he is NOT a lawyer, is a former high school basketball coach and educator- and has raised his family on the east side of the district. It will be close- and will depend on turnout. The other fun issue will be if Kurt brings in ROD to campaign for him. The only person in more trouble in this district than Kurt- is ROD! I imagine we will get direct mail pieces with pictures of Kurt and Rod- arm and arm. Lol. Gotta love it.
- NW burbs - Wednesday, Sep 20, 06 @ 12:29 pm:
Establishment Republican, which Matt Murphy will win, the pre-primary ultra-conservative Matt Murphy or the post-primary “Who Me?” Matt Murphy?
I think you’ve got another thing coming if you think there’ll be a 20-point spread and a Murphy cakewalk.
Fireman Pete Gutzmer — with his pro-security, pro-sportsman, pro-business, pro-fiscal responsibility and pro-common sense approach — is far more in tune with moderate Republicans than Matt “I was an extremist conservative til I won the primary, now I hide that” Murphy.
The people who vote know who, and what, Murphy is.
- flider is a puppet - Wednesday, Sep 20, 06 @ 3:31 pm:
John Dunn was a true downstate representative unlike Flider who is controlled by Madigan.
- 101st District Rational Observer - Wednesday, Sep 20, 06 @ 9:46 pm:
The above comments regarding the 101st 2006 House race are either from a chorus singing off the IHRO songsheet or from a lone “Join Cross” blogger who been told to log in as often as he can to type the same old Republich Machine rant against Democrat Bob Flider.
If any candidate is a puppet, it is the candidate for vice-representative of the 87th District, Dick Cain, who cannot hold a news conference without his Pupper Master Bill Mitchell. (Or is Bill Mitchell running for state representative of the 101st Distrint in addition to the 87th?) Either way, Cain cannot be viewed as serious candidate.
Any keen observer will come to the conclusion that the Illinois Republican Machine, especially the IHRO, is not so much pro Cain as anti-Democrat. Even Cain himself is not so much a pro-Cain proponent as a “Me,too” Republican.
The rational voters of the 101st will see through the Republican Machine’s odious smoke and fog and will vote for Rep. Flider, a serious candidate and able legislator. FLIDER 65%, Cain 35%
- anon - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 12:00 am:
miller will win