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Question of the day
Thursday, Jul 13, 2006 Predict the final point spread in the governor’s race. Bonus points for predicting congressional campaign outcomes and state House and Senate gains or losses by the majority party. UPDATE: Rasmussen has now posted its poll results online. After trailing earlier in the campaign season, Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich (D) now leads Republican State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka by 11-points in his bid for re-election. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows Blagojevich with 45% of the vote to 34% for Topinka. […] UPDATE 2: The commenter who goes by the moniker “Bill” or “The Original Bill” appears to have returned from his self-imposed exile. Some commenters were asking about him the other day, and maybe he saw it. One never knows.
- Posted by Rich Miller
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- Southern Illinoisian - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 10:36 am:
Topinka by 5.
US House stays Republican, down 2 seats.
US Senate stays Republican, even.
- scoot - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 10:44 am:
Depending on how the investigation goes: Judy by 8-10 points.
McSweeney, Roskam, winners. Zingas? really not sure
- Ravenswood Right Winger - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 10:48 am:
Topinka 52-48. McSweeney wins but doesn’t get 50% of the vote. Roskam wins 58-42. Weller wins 60-40. US House, GOP loses 3 seats. US Seante stays as is.
- Hobson's Choice - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 10:59 am:
JBT by less than 10,000 votes. I need an indictment, Fitgerald. Move it!
- Niles Township - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 11:01 am:
Blago 52%, JBT 48%
Bean by 4 and Roskam by 6
Senate stays GOP as does House, but Dems pick up 5 seats in the House.
- Thom Yorke - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 11:12 am:
Blago - 53%
JBT - 47%
- Anon - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 11:16 am:
Governor Blagojevich - 56%
Marlboro Woman - 44%
- Anon - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 11:38 am:
Topinka loses by 12 - worse than Bush’s 11 point loss in Illinois.
More proof that while voters aren’t thrilled with Blago, very few imagine Topinka as a credible alternative. She’s just too much of a loose cannon. She’s unelectable for the big job.
- Bill - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 11:44 am:
Rod 54
Judy42
none of the above 4
Low turnout. South side Chi south suburbs Cook brings it home
- Anon - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 11:53 am:
Sequoia machine blows up when it cannot handle the low turnout of the election resulting in a runoff.
- Skeeter - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 11:53 am:
Turnout hits all time lows. Given the choice of Blago or JBT, people choose to stay home. Cook County vote totals extremely low, as people would rather cut off own hand rather than use it to choose between Stroger Jr. and Peraica.
Blago squeaks by 51-48, helped by Dem turnout in C6 and C8.
Bean wins pulling away, 56-43
Duckworth beats Roskam 51-49
Peraica loses to whatever hack the Dems run.
Nationally, Dems pick up seven House seats, pick up four Senate seats (Santorum, Burns, Talent, Chafee, DeWine all lose, and Dems lose one from Minn. or Wash).
After this debacle, ILGOP comes to realization that Illinois is not Georgia and they need to run some fiscal conservatives and to stop running their typical slow-witted social conservative extremists.
- downstateyp - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 11:58 am:
Umm Skeeter- I’d hardly call JBT a “typical slow-witted social extemist.” In fact, I’d say that is why turn-out will be so low and Blago will win 53-47. JBT dosen’t excite anyone and dosen’t give more than half of her base a reason to go out and work or vote for her this year.
- Team Sleep - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 11:59 am:
Blago @ 50%
Topinka @ 47%
Whitney @ 3%
The U.S. House will remain Republican. I’m thinking the GOP will GAIN seats in the House due to candidates being able to make local issues an important part of every race.
The U.S. Senate will become deadlocked at 50-50. I say 50-50 because Bernie Sanders of Vermont is not an independent but rather a Democrat, and he will win. The big losses for the GOP will be Rick Santorum and Conrad Burns, while the Dems will lose out in Rhode Island to Lincoln Chafee. The race to watch is Jim Talent vs. Claire McKaskill.
The weird thing about this year’s election cycle (at least on the national level) is that even though Bush’s polling numbers are awful and more people declare themselves Dems, the election is a veritable toss-up. It will come down to money raised, period. Bush may be unpopular, gas prices are high and the Iraq War is a mess but any Republican Senator or Senate candidate can overcome all that with a nice warchest. Ah, politics.
- ChicagoDem - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 12:00 pm:
Judy 51%
Rod 49%…Chicago Democratic machine will sit this one out.
- Skeeter - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 12:03 pm:
downstateyp,
Good point. I don’t put her in that category.
Instead, I put her in the “Only the names will change” category.
I will hold my nose and vote Blago because I don’t think JBT will do a thing differently from him. She doesn’t exactly have a good government image.
- Anon - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 12:04 pm:
Proving that democracy is not dead, Eisendrath wins 53% of the vote, giving him the largest write-in vote total since Mickey Mouse.
Eisendrath 53%
Blago 22%
JBT 25%
Blago is unelectable!
- pickles!! - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 12:11 pm:
Blago 51%
JBT 49%
Blago wins out of default. He’s the evil we know, comapred with JBT, the evil we don’t know.
Roskam 52%
Duckworth 48 %
district is too strong republican for a democrat to win.
House gains a couple GOP seats, Senate stays as is.
- Southern Illinois Democrat - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 12:14 pm:
Rod 50%
Judy 47%
Greens 3%
I think that the Dems will pick up House and Senate seats but control neither. They will pick up 7 or 8 House seats and the Senate will be 51-49 Repub. Duckworth will lose by 6 points and Bean will reatin her seat by a 54 to 46 margin. Also, in my area, unfortunately Shimkus will beat Stover by a 56 to 44 margin.
- Bill - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 12:20 pm:
Alderman Mell (ChicagoDem),
There is no way we’re gonna sit this one out, dude!
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 12:21 pm:
Topinka - 49%
Blagojevich - 48%
Whitney - 3%
Bean and Duckworth will win — the suburbs are becoming more and more Democratic.
Phil Hare could lose — it will depend on how much retail politicking Lane Evans can do for him.
Madigan will lose one seat and pick up two.
Jones will pick up one seat.
- 105th Blues - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 12:23 pm:
Blago 53 JBT 46 other: 1
Dem. Mike Frerichs wins the 52nd State Senate Seat over Republican Judy Myers 51-49
- Anonymous - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 12:25 pm:
Anon 11:16
The Chicago Democrat Machine’s idea of intelligent discussion.
- Lovie's Leather - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 12:26 pm:
Judy 52 Rod 47 Write ins less than 1%
Bean 54 McSweeney 45 Scheurer 1
Roskam 56 Duckworth 44
Hare 53 Zinga 47
Senate GOP loses 3
House GOP loses 8
(just for fun…) Lahood 70 Waterworth 30
- Anonymous - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 12:29 pm:
Rod 59%
JBT 49%
I got these numbers from Filan.
- Rube Brick - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 12:40 pm:
Get ready Dem statewide committeemen/women: Blago will be indicted, and you’ll need to replace him at the top of the ticket. Accordingly:
Pseudo-Breath-of-Fresh-Air Dem: 48%
JBT: 46%
Whitney/Greens: 6%
The big news will be Whitney, who will establish the Greens and force a Dem/Repub sea change for 2008. And let’s not forget another biggie for 2008: a yes/no to call a state constitutional convention will be on the ballot. (Time for the big fix, people. Go Con-Con!)
- RAI - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 12:51 pm:
It seems JBT is not getting the GOP base support how surprising! This is what we feared in the primary the 1.3 million voters who voted Keyes were a good way of figuring out what the pro life pro family base of the GOP vote was. JBT cannot count on getting any of those voters and has alienated them even more by pretending she didn’t need them. Thanks Bill Brady for giving the Governor another four years.
- CrackBerry - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 1:04 pm:
He’s got an 11 point lead because he’s the only one on TV…it’s not that hard to figure out…although it seems to be hard for some.
- Not So Fast - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 1:06 pm:
Has anyone seen JBT and Pam Zekman in the same place at the same time? JBT does have a journalism degree . . . .
- Reddbyrd - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 1:13 pm:
Grod stomps
Speaker Nancy in DC
Leader Harry ?
Need we say more
- Homer Simpson - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 1:18 pm:
The Magic 8 Ball speaks.
Q - “Will Governor Blagojevich win reelection this November?”
A - “Outlook not so good.”
Q - “Will JBT win by more than 5 points?”
A - “It is certain”
So there you have it. If you want to try the all knowing 8 ball go to:
http://www.indra.com/8ball/front.html
- bored now - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 1:34 pm:
strange. i got “OUTLOOK GOOD” to the question, “Will Governor Blagojevich win reelection this November?”
perhaps there are two gov. blagojevich’s?
- Homer Simpson - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 1:37 pm:
Bored - You must be holding your mouse wrong. I just got “My sources say no” this time. :)
- Lovie's Leather - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 1:47 pm:
Bored now, there are definately atleast 2 Blagojevichs. One is him in physical form. And the other is like that halloween episode of the simpsons where Homer gets a hair transplant from Snake after he is put to death. The hair controls him. And even though the physical Blagojevich might lose the election. The hair will just dye itself red and move next door….
- Bill - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 1:56 pm:
Wow! My very own update! Thanks Rich and thanks for letting me back on the blog. I promise to behave better this time.
Bring it on!!
- Truthful James - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 2:00 pm:
Governor (total registerd voters)
Blago 23%
Judy B 22%
Whitney 2%
Apathy 51%
From the Polls
Roskam 52%
Duckworth 48%
Bean 50.5%
McSweeney 49.5%
Nationally Senate = Dems +2
House Dems +7
Treasurer
Radogno 51%
Giannoulis 49%
Indictments (Probability):
Blago 10%
Reyes 33% down since Bush Daley confab on??
Player to be named later: 25%
- Establishment Republican - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 2:21 pm:
Predictions-
Topinka/Birkett – 48
Blagojevich/Quinn- 45
Whitney/Saumels- 7
Roskam- 55
Duckworth 45
McSweeney 48
Bean 46
Scheurer- 6
Hare – 55
Zinga- 45
Overall U.S. Senate- no net change, remains 55-45 GOP
Overall U.S. House- Democrats net a measly 4 seats
Wildcard prediction:
Dick Kay Snodgrass wears Hawaiian shirt and earring on WMAQ Election Night guest appearance.
- Garp - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 4:33 pm:
Quinn or Lisa Madigan 55%
Topinka 42%
3% Green Guy
Blago drops out due to indictments
- B Hicks - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 4:56 pm:
Rod in November, by 7%.
The cameras don’t seem to do Judy any justice. You know, they just have a hard time catching her beauty. The picture they ran of her today in the Jacksonville paper made her look like Squidward from Spongebob. What’s up with that? She’s a good-looking girl, don’t you think?
Eeeesh
Also, I’m glad that Billy Baroo is back.
- SantaAnna's Leg - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 5:58 pm:
You think the poll would be the same after today’s revelation of a lawsuit against Rod and Monk from the deposed head of Historic Preservation, who has proof Monk came to him and demanded the summary firing of a “hit list” of republicans? Supposedly he lost his job as director for not playing ball with the pogrom.
- B Hicks - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 6:10 pm:
Here’s a good one: http://topinkawatch.com/vertical/Sites/{127287A4-C1A0-4263-A09C-48BCCA58E3B2}/uploads/{2BDFF320-E55E-4DCB-8F14-B082A06F27F7}.MOV
- scoot - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 6:43 pm:
The numbers in this race are so sparatic..from January until now. The average of the polls is more reliable. Both hovering at 41-40% respectively. Let’s not jump to any conclusions, those dark clouds are moving in- and the voters of Illinois should be informed on what’s going on.
Thoughtful people: We have been through this before with Guv Ryan. Don’t let it happen again.
- SilverBackDemocrat - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 7:13 pm:
I do believe former Governor Ryan won the “98″ election by approx. 200-some,000 votes (gang banger commercial pointing out Poshard’s support for concealed weapons) is what pushed Ryan over the top. Had the election been held a week or two later, Poshard probably could have closed that gap with an influx of money to counter the negative ads. I do not know any Democrats who voted for “Ryan” (mostly independents who got scared by the commercial showing gang-bangers carrying concealed weapons). Democrats will be at home in November (meaning voting for “our” people on election day in droves). Close to 3 decades of Republican “control” and their “cronyism” in this state is enough. People see through their hypocrisy, and complaining. Democrats were not even considered for state employment in the “80’s or early “90’s” , and guess what, they all remember it just like it was yesterday. All the “mad” state employees and disgruntled ex-state employees are mad because they don’t have their “juice” card anymore. Poooh-hoooo. I think I’ll cry an alligator tear for them. Enough about that, a lot of veterans and military people could be the deciding vote, so I hope the Governor works hard to get their vote (don’t be fooled by the pundits who say “most” military folk are Republicans (mostly commissioned officers are Repubs, enlisted folk are 90% of military and they are mostly black, hispanic, and working class whites). Nevertheless, I think this election will be an equally close election (similar to “98″) with the Governor winning 51% to Topinka’s 49% (her support is strong down south-mainly from no-mans land). Republicans claim to “own” everything outside of Chicago. People, that could not be further from the “truth.” Fact: Democrats win in every area where metropolitan areas exist (East St. Louis “Madison Co.”, Rock Island, Rockford, Knox county, Quincy, Springfield, Decatur); you get the point, where people live. I’m just speaking of places that are considered south of the Collar Counties. Topinka’s support is strong where the population is itty-bitty, like Warren County- a place that does not even have a “health department” (that’s something to be proud of). I think Hare will win the 17th Congr. District (possibly with 54-56% support). Most people in the District have a bad taste in their mouth for “Zinga.” Plus, brother Lane is very, very popular with the majority of voters in the 17th.
- On the other hand.... - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 8:05 pm:
If Topinka wins I hope she retains every honest hardworking Democrat that Blagojevich has hired. That is if both of them want to stay.
- paper bag over my head - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 8:48 pm:
I have a question. Who does a low voter turn out favor? Normally I would say a Republican because their is a faction of conservatives that are always a strong voting block, but given JBT stance on some social issues, I am not convinced they will support her. Any guesses?
- Silver tongued devil - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 9:05 pm:
Silverback, as a dem voting for Judy, let me disabuse you of your notion that all the “mad state workers” are sore loser repubs. I was the only known dem in my agency for years working under the repubs, and yes, they punished me for it in various and sundry ways. I stuck it out, making bricks without straw for pharaoh and waiting for my deliverer. No one was happier than I when Blago the Reformer came in, supposedly to sweep the place clean. We civil servants all wanted the bad taste of the tainted Ryan years washed out of our mouths. I voted for the (censored). But then we found out what a lying punk he really was. I saw people I respected despite party affiliation thrown aside and replaced with utter incompetent hacks. I saw others like myself, dems but without any “juice”, passed over for promotions and kicked out alongside republicans though they had years more job knowledge than the out-of-state kiddies and contributors that were awarded high posts. I saw horrible waste. I saw unbridled greed every bit as bad as the other party, only compressed into a much shorter time frame. I was disgusted by my party and my choice of Rodrigo and I aim to atone by insuring this festering infection gets cleared from the body politic by November, if it has to be surgically excised.
- uiucleader - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 9:25 pm:
“Dem. Mike Frerichs wins the 52nd State Senate Seat over Republican Judy Myers 51-49″
What race are you watching? He is gonna get hammered.
Rod will win by 5 points. If indictment comes, JBT by 5.
Roskam will win. Bean will win.
Madigan will lose two (maybe three seats), and pick up the Quincy one.
- NumbersGuy - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 9:57 pm:
uiuc, I think the non-homies like our esteemed blog host and YDD are missing the fact that within the District and Champaign County, Mr. Frerichs has more issues than a 3-year subscription to TV Guide. My two cents is on the Undertaker’s seat to stay Republican.
From there, my guesses are for the most part in line with YDD’s. Close but a win for JBT, say 50-48-2, Roskam 52-48 and Bean 53-47. Net gains for Mr. Speaker; no change in the Senate.
BTW, anybody else think SBD (Silverback Dem) was in high school during the ‘98 election?
SBD, the local Dem chair in Spfld barely carried his precinct for Blago in the primary-good luck in November! I’m sure the folks in Galesburg are flattered, though, that you consider them “metropolitan.”
- Ashur Odishoo - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 10:00 pm:
Topinka - 51%
Blago - 48%
Roskam -53%
McSweeney - 52%
Peraica - 51%
Toddler - 47%
Odishoo - 52%
Fritchey - 47%
Ashur Odishoo
Candidate
State Representative 11th District
- SilverBackDemocrat - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 10:11 pm:
Brother “STD,” I feel your pain; However, I disagree with your analysis of how things are ran in state government “now.” The only difference between hiring now and when the Republicans were in control is “managers.” Managers are employed at the will of the Governor and his Directors. The Governor has the right and authority to have managers in place that reflect his views, and ideas of how or what “policy/ies” should be implemented or not implemented. It is too bad that you have been looked over or thrown off to the side (if you are qualified) to be a manager and reflect the CEO’s views, ie., Senior Public Service Administrator (SPSA). Nonetheless, I would say that over 90% of state jobs are covered by AFSCME, so there is “no-way” people are promoted into “union” positions if they do not have “seniority.” If a person was promoted and it violated the “Master Contract” the Union would file a grievance and the grieving employee would “win” the grievance and the promotion. That is just a fact. As for people having a problem with the managers, don’t know what to tell you. I don’t have any problems with my managers, except for hold-overs that do not make decisions and make the union grieve everything. I am a union member with close to 10 years with the state. I just happen to have a Masters’ Degree and am a Veteran. Big deal. I guess when a position opens up I “could” apply and get the “Job” automatically because I am a veteran and am “entitled” to an “Absolute Preference.” Would that be legit? Because when I applied for promotions in prior administrations, non-veterans with GED’s and HS diplomas got jobs over me. I’m sorry for falling off topic. I will not ever get into this “crud” talk anymore. I apologize. I will end with this: The poll break-down should be coming out very soon; I look forward to the poll showing that the Collar Counties have given the Governor more support. He may even have picked up a point or two down-state (way down in the sticks).
- the ole preceinct captain - Thursday, Jul 13, 06 @ 10:23 pm:
Blago 52%
Topinka 48%
Blago wins because of the people of Illinois are sick of the way the repub’s ran the state and Topinka can only offer complaints. She has no programs and is as guilty as the rest of the crew that is being sentanced right now.
- OptimisticGreen - Friday, Jul 14, 06 @ 12:10 am:
Whitney - 36%
Topinka - 34%
Blagojevich - 30%
Rod’s indictments heat up, Judy’s begin, Whitney absolutely smokes them in the debates.
- T.J. - Friday, Jul 14, 06 @ 1:45 am:
Governor
Blagojevich-Quinn (D) 53%
Topinka-Birkett (R) 44%
Whitney-Samuels (G) 2%
U.S. House 6
Roskam (R) 53%
Duckworth (D) 47%
U.S. House 8
Bean (D) 52%
McSweeney (R) 46%
Scheurer (I) 2%
U.S. House 15
Johnson (R) 64%
Gill (D) 35%
State Senate 52
Myers (R) 51%
Frerichs (D) 48%
Parnarauskis (S) 1%
- David P. Graf - Friday, Jul 14, 06 @ 7:47 am:
As someone who recently moved to Springfield after living 25 years in Chicago, I predict a 58%-42% victory for Blagojevich. Given that whoever replaces Stroger as President of the Cook County Board will control a lot of votes, the machine will make sure that the voters march to the polls and vote the right way. Besides, Daley is no friend of Madigan and Blagojevich is the best way of spiking any plans Madigan may have for his daughter becoming governor. Of course, if Daley gets indicted by the Feds before the election, it’s all up for grabs just as it would be if Blagojevich gets charged.
- It is easy being Green - Friday, Jul 14, 06 @ 9:36 am:
Please, people…no matter what you think of Whitney and the Greens BELIEVE me when I say NO ONE should have to go through the petition drive and signature validation process that the Greens will have to successfully navigate to get on the ballot. If Whitney gets on the ballot he DESERVES 5%+. It is simply a vote for democracy.
Pingback IlliniPundit.com » Blog Archive » Governor Race Polling - Friday, Jul 14, 06 @ 10:14 am:
[…] Capitol Fax has more, including a predictions thread, but Rasmussen has Governor Blagojevich leading Judy Baar Topinka 45 to 34. […]
- It is easy being Green - Friday, Jul 14, 06 @ 10:25 am:
Other races where Greens will change the political landscape 2006:
Dorian Breuer for 1st State Senate: Dorian Breuer faces a scandal ridden Democrat (Munoz) and no Republican.
Tom Abram for 103rd State Rep: Tom Abram (Jacobsson, Bradfield )in Champaign will make major waves and could win this race.
Phil Huckelberry for 88th State Rep: Phil Huckelberry is running solely opposed to a Republican (Brady), no Democrat bothered to oppose. This is a college district!
Charlie Howe for 115th State Rep: Charlie Howe is running against just a Republican (Bost), no Democrat bothered to oppose. This is a college district!
Look for Dorian Breuer, Phil Huckelberry, Tom Abram, and Charlie Howe to have a major impact in their races in November.
The Illinois Green Party also has candidates that should be factored in in these districts:
Roberto Cepeda for 2nd State Rep
Kathy Cummings for 4th State Rep
Nathan Helsabeck - 8th State Representative
Timothy Curtin for 78th State Rep
Illinois Green and Growing!
- diehard - Friday, Jul 14, 06 @ 11:16 am:
Silvertonguedevil–
I share some of your frustration however–regardless of your individual job situation I do have to ask if you remember why you’re a Dem in the first place? Why did you remain a Dem in years of Repub rule when most people just went with that flow? In my case I have chosen my party affiliation because of my stance on the social issues and regardless of the criticisms of this administration they have stood up for the social issues that define the Democratic party. That’s why I’m hanging in there with my support.
- T.J. - Friday, Jul 14, 06 @ 12:20 pm:
I totally forgot Abram was favored over Bradfield and safe incumbent Jakobsson.
- uiucleader - Friday, Jul 14, 06 @ 1:01 pm:
“Tom Abram for 103rd State Rep: Tom Abram (Jacobsson, Bradfield )in Champaign will make major waves and could win this race.”
You cannot honestly believe that’s true. For your sake, I hope you dont. Abram may pull 5%.
- anon - Tuesday, Jul 18, 06 @ 11:07 pm:
Rod - 55%
Topinka - LOSES