I don’t do predictions, but my pal Don Rose does.
Much as I prefer to defy conventional wisdom, this season’s calls on the major primaries statewide and in Cook County amount to little more than an echo of same.
It would have been interesting, for example, to foresee one or another of Judy Baar Topinka’s major challengers—Ron Gidwitz or Jim Oberweis—pull a Seabiscuit, but she’ll outpoint them both with about 38 percent and face Governor Blago in the fall—where I now predict she will fall short by nearly 3 points. Remarkable how Ron Gidwitz’s high qualifications, big endorsements and bigger bucks—which bought a good ad campaign—simply couldn’t move the numbers. At the moment it doesn’t look like he’ll hit 30 percent.
As to the Guv, the only question is whether his semi-opponent, Edwin Eisendrath III, reaches the 29 percent he got against Congressman Sid Yates some 16 years ago. There is a built-in 30 percent vote against almost anybody but I doubt Little Lord Eddie (as the late, great Steve Neal dubbed him) will crack that barrier. If, perchance he should go as high as 35 or more percent it is ominous for the Guv in the fall. It will reflect a significant Democratic split of the magnitude that kept Republicans in the office for a decade after they really lost their statewide majority. (I believe Lisa Madigan might have beat Blago.)
Joe Birkett is likely to be carried in with her by a substantial vote over the far more deserving Steve Rauschenberger and will be a drag on Topinka’s ticket in the fall.
The Dem race for state treasurer pits Mike Madigan against Barack Obama—excuse me, Paul Mangieri against Alexi Giannoulias. Madigan is backing the moderate downstater Mangieri, but Cook County is where the votes come from. Obama, lots of fine TV and plenty bucks will bring Giannoulias home handily. Does anyone really know what a treasurer is or does? They do know Obama knows and seem to trust him.
The race for Cook County Board president is where an upset might occur if CW is upset this month. The Tribune poll shows incumbent John Stroger with a 10-point lead over Commissioner Forrest Claypool; private polls have the race much tighter. So tight that Stroger had to go all-out to get Richard M. Daley and William Jefferson Clinton to do commercials on his behalf (he never speaks for himself in his commercials). He also got one from Carol Moseley Braun, which might actually be counterproductive.
Stroger was hospitalized on the day the poll came out, adding a note of strong uncertainty to the outcome. The 76-year-old added a stroke to a string of health problems that clearly put his continuing in office in jeopardy. If he should win the primary and then quit, the party gets to select his successor, widely rumored to be Assessor Jim Houlihan. But who knows. If he wins and is elected in November—as he certainly would—his fellow county board members pick one of their own.
I think this does not sit well with the public. This is the fear factor—though there is a sympathy factor as well. I’m going to go out on a limb and say the bottom line will go slightly in Claypool’s favor—perhaps just enough to win. But then, I also thought John Kerry would win.
His bio: “Don Rose is a writer and independent political consutant who has worked for both parties in the past. His clients have included former Gov. Jim Edgar, Mayors Harold Washington and Jane Byrne of Chicago, former Supreme Court Justice Seymour Simon plus a host of radical activists.”
- Truthful James - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 8:51 am:
I wish John Stroger good health. But, whether he lives or dies, the Great Democrat Machine could care less. They will extract the precinct vote and elect John and/or appoint a replacement in the General Election. Someone trustworthy and loyal to the machine. Not Mr. Claypool.
- DOWNSTATE - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 9:10 am:
Too much up in the air for anyone ,no matter how good their track record is, to predict this election.
- Skeeter - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 9:18 am:
I am willing to bet that the predications are completely accurate, with the exception of state treasurer. There has been too much bad publicity for Alexi. Plus, he has a long foreign name. Illinois still doesn’t like long names. If Alexi wins, it will be in a squeaker.
- grand old partisan - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 9:46 am:
um, skeeter….one word for you: ‘Blagojevich’
- Just Observing - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 9:59 am:
Here’s why Mangieri will win… while Alexi is beating Mangieri in the Trib’s recent poll (something like 31% to 18%), it is not by a very large margin and certainly nowhere close to the 50% plus 1 needed to win. So, all the undecideds are going to cast their votes on a whim and Mangieri has the machine field operation to push him over the top on election day. Alexi has no field operation and minimal elected officials with field organizations supporting him — couple that with Alexi’s bad press (although I think that will have a minimal impact).
- Skeeter - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 10:09 am:
GOP,
One word: RYAN.
Anyone can beat a Republican named Ryan in Illinois.
Overall, my point stands. People like to talk about how open-minded they are, but they will vote for a guy named “Paul” any day over a guy named “Alexi.” From personal experience, I can tell you that most people can’t tell a Greek name from a Saudi name, and those same people just don’t like foreigners.
- Stavros Popodopolis - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 10:11 am:
What’s a radical arctivist?
- zatoichi - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 10:12 am:
How do I become a member of the “radical acrtivists”? Great band name.
- VanillaMan - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 10:31 am:
Rich, your predictions are only correct from March’s perspective. But thats only fair. You will probably need to revive your November predictions by about 5%. It isn’t much, but considering what we are seeing in March, your predictions ain’t bad!
- VanillaMan - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 10:32 am:
OOOps! I meant Don’s predictions!
- Marta Elena - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 10:43 am:
I love his Don’s bio. I admire people who can work on both sides of partisan politics.
Rich,
Can we get a list of those radical activists? BTW - thanks for the cig.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 10:45 am:
You’re welcome. But it was two cigs.
- Schiznitz - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 10:50 am:
Nobody knows nor cares about Treasurer. Giannoulodopoulousias bought a ton of billboards and press in Chicago. People will vote on recognition alone. Sad, but true.
- Marta Elena - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 10:51 am:
My bad.
- grand old partisan - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 11:02 am:
skeeter, point taken, but didn’t Rod Blagojevich beat a guy named “Paul” in the 2002 Primary? Didn’t a guy whose name sounds much more Arab/Saudi than Alexi’s beat out a guy named “Dan Hynes†in the 2004 Primary?
I don’t think you are giving the voters of this state much credit.
- North of I-80 - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 11:07 am:
How accurate are Don Rose predictions? The prospect of Rod re-elected by 3 points ruined my day.
- LaMont Cranston - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 11:15 am:
The Shadow knows that some of the radical activists Don Rose has worked for include Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., Tom Hayden, Dick Gregory and Barry Commoner. Some of them even qualify as “arctivists.” Mario Cuomo probably doesn’t count as an arctivist.
- Mr. Anon - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 11:31 am:
Didn’t Mr. Independent collect most of his $ cash from state agencies under direction from Blinky Jim Edgar?
He is right Brickett being a drag on the GOP ticket.
Statewide mail, radio and ground troops will be enough to send ALexi bank to the bank to wait for the Feds to show up with quetions about all the loans to “Jaws”
Stroget tops Forest cuase they did not stay negative.
Wonder how the dream team will do with Duckworth. Kinda funny the trib did not poll there
- DC - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 11:55 am:
Rich is corrrect (Rich I think I heard that stement somewhere earlier from a very smart guy.) about it being Madigan’s field vs. Barack’s star power through the media. People will vote for Paul because of someone they know connected with the state party or because they know he’s a downstater. They’ll vote for Alexi because they know Barack is behind him or because he’s from Chicago. Again, this is the primary and tose who vote in primaries tend to have their minds made up for them by someone else or on their own, but I don’t think they pick a random name as much as you might see in the general election. Maybe I’m wrong on that….
- Bubs - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 12:33 pm:
As a Republican, I look forward to Alexi winning the Democratic primary!
Obama will rue the day he crossed Madigan and went with that kid.
- SenorAnon. - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 12:46 pm:
First off, folks, “Mangieri” isn’t exactly “Smith.” And on the ballot, he’s listed as “Alexander,” a name I’m pretty sure most have heard.
Second, the Tribune negatives came a little late in the game - and I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest people downstate couldn’t care less what the Chicago Tribune has to say - and people in the Chicago area aren’t going to be swayed by two articles that the overwhelming majority won’t have read or heard about.
Third, even a really good field operation - when backed only by a sporadic, sundry mail program, will have a tough time beating three weeks of TV.
Don’t think Glenn Poshard 1998 - because there were three other candidates to carve up the Chicago-area vote, and it was top of the ticket.
- SenorAnon. - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 12:52 pm:
“Obama will rue the day he crossed Madigan and went with that kid.”
How do you figure? Obama isn’t some township committeeman or village trustee. He is -for everything that is right and wrong with this- BARACK OBAMA.
Is Tom Dart not going to be Sheriff? Are we checking the voting history of Senator Hynes?
No doubt he’s powerful…but he’s hardly omnipotent (though as a Republican, you can be forgiven for thinking so - because he does own your party).
- Bubs - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 12:56 pm:
“Obama will rue the day he crossed Madigan and went with that kid.â€
“How do you figure? Obama isn’t some township committeeman or village trustee. He is -for everything that is right and wrong with this- BARACK OBAMA.”
Becasue:
1. Alexi is going to look like swiss cheese after the investigative reporters are done with him. They already view him as utterly inept in handling the press, which is just the way they want it. Plus, I hear there is more there than a gun shop.
2. Madigan never forgets.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 1:01 pm:
Don Rose was washed up 20 years ago.
Birkett will be a big asset for the ticket. He will hammer away at Rod and force the Mighty Quinn out of his bunker and force him to defend the massive corruption of Rocket Rod. Can’t wait to hear Quinn explain all those federal investigations away.
Topinka and Birkett will campaign a lot in Cook County and both have strong pockets of support in the inner suburbs.
- HeKnowsBarack - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 1:06 pm:
And remember even after Alexander blames all the bank stuff on others he can start explaining why he needed to take some cash from Kevin Flynn of Emerald Casino fame
- Realist - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 1:39 pm:
Madigan is powerful and could have some effect on most normal politicians in Illinois. But Obama is way beyond him now. In any case, Madigan is not going to cross swords with the second most admired politician in America (just behind Rudy and just ahead of McCain, according to a recent poll) because he happened to be on the other side in one fairly minor primary campaign.
- ClosetedSkeleton - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 2:23 pm:
You go anon. Birkett work to execute his strategy at any cost…evidence be damned! He’ll hold hold him to the fire like an estranged spouse you just can’t take anymore…
- the Patriot - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 3:41 pm:
The polls and predictions will be shown to be off in the republican races for several reasons. JBT may win, but margin will be alarming. Still have hopes of the Obe ones coming to their senses and finding Bill Brady.
Regardless, the polls, both the Trib and Post dispatch weigh heavily in Chicago. This skews a bit in a normal year but when the gov has nailed down state for 3 years there is an uncalculatable X factor on whether those extra downstaters will go to the polls.
For both elections you have to consider the state employee factor. There are almost 100k of them plus family and friends puts about 250+ votes which do not show on the polls. They do not poll their true voice out of fear and they won’t vote in a primary because they have seen friends disappear in a Stalin like elimination of political enimies of the state. The state employees won’t vote on March 21, but their friends and family members will. X factor unknown.
In Nov, they will vote, and for anybody but Blago. Those are 250K extra votes that are in the republican bag even if the candidate is Alan Keyes. Blago’s fear tactics may backfire for poll considerations. The state emplyees may say they will vote for him if called, but they will not period, end of story.
EE wins plus 30% south of I 80, maybe close to 40% which will really show a chink in the armor for the gov if Madigan cuts him off and doesn’t let him dole out the grants for the next 7 mo.
- B Hicks - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 4:39 pm:
Patroit: That sensimilla is some good stuff, isn’t it?
- Minion - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 5:11 pm:
all this talk of Obama vs. Madigan is silly. Once this election is over it will all be forgotten pretty quickly. Now, if Barack were putting someone up against Lisa, that would be a problem. Besides, I think Rodogno looks really good to win. Naturally, she will have to introduce herself to voters who know next to nothing about her, but I think she will be very difficult to defeat.
- Bill Baar - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 6:03 pm:
Rodogno makes a very good impression… No one talks about her much but she has a great story.. and very smart.
- E ticket - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 6:28 pm:
You will see state workers come out bigger than usual because a vote for Eisendrath gives them a stealthy way to stick it to Milorad, while still appearing to be loyal dems. Look for Eisendrath to surpass otherwise low expectations in central and southern parts of the state due to this factor.
I encourage the republican state workers to come across for the primary and join the fun and vote for Edwin as well: Judy’s already a lock on your side, so those guys don’t need your vote, and if you fear retaliation from Blago’s people, you’ll look like a loyal Democrat to them on paper, and you can go back and vote for Judy in the general later, no problem. I think the state wins either way in an Eisendrath-Topinka race. If Rod lost the primary in an upset, I think the world would be a better place. If he leaves it won, but wounded, well, I’ll return you Republicans the favor and vote for your gal in the general.
- HOPEFUL - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 8:18 pm:
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- Papa Legba - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 8:27 pm:
Patriot - With EE in the race, state workers can pull a democratic primary ballot. They can keep up the appearance they are “team” players and vote against Blagozo. I will bet that will happen quite a bit. If Blago gets back in, how can it be proved who the workers voted for if they voted democrat? It will spare them the wrath of Blago’s Brown Shirts if and when their voting records get pulled.
- Anon - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 8:46 pm:
Patriot, AFSCME endorsed Topinka so you can pull a GOP ballot, nothing says you have to vote for her after you go into the booth.
- John 3:16 - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 9:02 pm:
It is actually pretty amusing to read so many experts on this site predict that the Feds are going to start looking into Alexi. Maybe you all are just so focused on Springfield and the laissez-faire way our government in Illinois is regulated, you don’t understand that the banking industry is the most heavily regulated industry in the United States. Feds look at Broadway Bank’s — as well as LaSalle’s, Shore Bank’s, etc. — loans every day. It is telling that the great investigative reporters in Illinois (who couldn’t turn up anything on Hired Trucks for 8 years) haven’t reported a single violation imposed or single investigation initiated by the Feds into Broadway Bank.
Several bankers — including apparently Norm Bobbins — have written letters of editors to Crain’s to tell them how off-base that article was.
As for Mangieri’s great “field operation” — what field operation? Just because he is listed on palm cards? You should hear what Aldermen who have been forced to endorse him say (even the day he was at City Council: the “Manchurian Candidate”, “he looks like the guy from Deuce Bigalow”, “he’s kind of a goof, but I owe Madigan”.)
Even look at his “supporters”. Frank Zuccarelli declared his support for Mangieri “because he has been coming to events (i.e., kissing my rear) for over a year.” Not one, NOT ONE, of the DPI mailers gives a positive reason for voting for Mangieri, and even the Trib’s endorsement didn’t call him qualified for the job.
Alexi is being trashed not because he is unqualified, or unethical, or young, it is because he “violated” the cardinal rule of Illinois’ business as usual — he wasn’t someone that somebody “sent”. They are still smarting that Obama beat their golden boy Hynes in 2004, that Claypool beat Teddy (who is seeking revenge by making his glorified clerk of a son a judge) and could now unseat Stroger, and that a private sector Democrat would dare challenge a party minion. This isn’t only an attack on Alexi, it is an attack on a movement.
- Emily Booth - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 9:34 pm:
I don’t know any State employee in Chicago voting for Rod Blagoyevich. We’re all Dems and we’re all voting for Judy Baar.
- cynically anonymous - Thursday, Mar 16, 06 @ 9:38 pm:
Amen to those astute observations about state employees. And let’s not overlook the thinking portion of the state’s population who can see through “political puffery” and publicity stunts and feel good programs that are being talked about as if they are a done deal, when the reality is that until there’s a budget for the next fiscal year, there are no programs.
- babs - Friday, Mar 17, 06 @ 10:12 am:
When the wagonloads of voters from the south side of Chicago are being handed their “sample” ballots, they will vote for Stroger and Mangieri. Obama will not count in this race, just like when he ran against Bobby Rush. And, the party machine will be turning out voters for Stroger like crazy. I wish Forrest would pull it out, but the forces against him are overwhelming.